Strengths and weaknesses of the Western Conference’s middle tier
By Jared Dubin
Already this offseason, we’ve used this space to point out just how many truly bad teams there could be in the NBA next season. The Suns, Lakers, Kings, Mavericks, Knicks, Nets, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic all seem fairly likely to fall short of 35 wins, and it would be a surprise if some of those teams even topped 30.
Of course, just as there were last year, there are also several elite teams that seem likely to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. The Warriors are once again the best team in basketball, and they should be joined near the top of the Western Conference by the Rockets and Spurs. The Cavaliers now have company in the upper-crust of the Eastern Conference, with the Celtics seemingly joining them after a bunch of offseason moving and shaking. Each conference also has a second tier of seemingly assured playoff-caliber squads. Something would have to go very wrong for the Thunder or Timberwolves to miss out on the dance out West, while the Raptors and Wizards should resume their place as the third- and fourth-best teams in the East.
But what about the rest of the squads in the squishy middle? The above delineation of tiers leaves six teams fighting for three playoff spots in the Western Conference, and six teams duking it out for four spots in the East. Over the next couple days, we’re going to break down some of the strengths and weaknesses of each of those teams. Last week, we started with the East. Below, we’ll tackle the West.
Los Angeles Clippers
Strength: Depth
Weakness: Injuries
The great tragedy of the Chris Paul era in LA was that the Clippers never found a dependable fifth starter. Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan were consistently one of the best four-man units in the NBA but Doc Rivers continually cycled through small forward after small forward, searching for someone that could contribute at an above-average level on both ends. They eventually settled on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, but even then, the Clips’ bench held them back. After sending Paul to Houston for a package of players and picks, then spinning Jamal Crawford to Atlanta for a deal that netted Danilo Gallinari, the Clips finally have some depth now. Patrick Beverley and Milos Teodosic at the point, with Jawun Evans developing behind them; Austin Rivers, Lou Williams, Gallinari, Sam Dekker, and even Wes Johnson on the wing; Griffin, Jordan, Montrezl Harrell, and Willie Reed up front. That’s a lot of quality players and a lot of different looks the Clippers can put on the floor.
Read More: Strengths and weaknesses of the Eastern Conference’s middle tier
The issue, of course, is that not all of those players can consistently stay on the floor. Griffin, newly-minted with his max deal, has been continuously injured over the last couple seasons and may or may not be ready for the start of the year. Gallinari has played more than 63 games exactly once in the last six years, and has missed an average of 21 games even in his “fully healthy” seasons. Beverley has missed 20 games a year over the last four seasons, and both Rivers and Dekker have dealt with injuries as well.
Utah Jazz
Strength: Defense
Weakness: Individual scoring talent
The Jazz finished last season with the third-best defensive efficiency in basketball. They lost two important starters from that squad (Gordon Hayward and George Hill) but they still have the best back-line anchor in the league in town with Rudy Gobert. Any team playing Gobert big minutes is going to be strong defensively, but the Jazz also may have upgraded their point guard defense by swapping out Hill for Ricky Rubio; and the additions of Thabo Sefolosha, Ekpe Udoh, Jonas Jerebko, and rookie Donovan Mitchell should help keep them among the cream of the crop among point-prevention units.
The issues for the Jazz are likely to crop up at the other end of the floor. Hayward carried a huge creation load for them last season, and the slack he didn’t pick up was in large part handled by Hill. With both players having moved on, much of the shot-creation burden will fall to Rubio, Rodney Hood, Joes Ingles and Johnson, Mitchell, Alec Burks, and Dante Exum. That’s a lot of bodies to throw at the problem, but none of them have quite nearly the elite individual creation talent of Hayward. Rubio has always made his offenses better over large samples while occasionally struggling in single-possession situations because defenses play so far off him. Hood took a step backward last season, Mitchell is a rookie, Exum has yet to fully develop as the Jazz expected him to (a torn ACL is partially to blame), Ingles is more of a secondary creator, Johnson can only be counted on to do so much over a full season, and I nearly forgot Burks existed while writing this paragraph. Scoring will not be easy for this team.
Memphis Grizzlies
Strength: Defense and communication
Weakness: Non-Conley perimeter creation
I’m not sure we can still call them the Grit N’ Grind Grizz now that Zach Randolph plays for the Kings, but the Mike Conley-Marc Gasol core is still in place and Tony Allen should return at some point as well. That means the Grizzlies still have the infrastructure to continue defending the same way they’ve been defending for years. Memphis has a communication system that depends heavily on Conley and Gasol directing players around while allowing Allen to freelance and do his thing. They’ll be incorporating some new pieces into that scheme this year, but the institutional memory should allow them to thrive.
While the defense seems likely to continue apace, so too do the Grizzlies’ issues manufacturing good shots. This team has been dealing with the same issue for years: they still have not found a second perimeter player beyond Conley that can pierce the defense from the outside-in and create shots for himself and others. Chandler Parsons was supposed to finally be that guy, but he spent most of last season in street clothes; and the parts of the year where he was actually on the floor, he was wildly ineffective. They imported Tyreke Evans this offseason to give them a dash of this type of playmaking, but since his rookie year he’s mostly proven effective at creating for himself, not anybody else. Unless they can get the version of Parsons they expected when signing him a year ago, it seems likely the Grizz will continue to want for perimeter creativity outside of Conley.
Portland Trail Blazers
Strength: Perimeter scoring
Weakness: Defense
The Blazers are basically the inverse of the Jazz and Grizzlies. They’re totally good on perimeter shot creation. Damian Lillard remains one of the premier isolation and pick-and-roll attackers in the league, and his backcourt partner C.J. McCollum is right there with him. Nine players in the league averaged 8.0 points per game or more on pull-ups last season, and each member of the Blazers’ guard duo was among that group. The two of them could manufacture shots out of thin air if they needed to, but they don’t. Terry Stotts’ system gives them plenty of space in which to operate, and they take full advantage of that.
The issue, well, is that neither one of them can stop anybody from doing the same on the other end. Moe Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu form a strong defensive combination in the frontcourt, but the Blazers don’t exactly have a lot in the way of rim-protection behind their turn-style backcourt. There’s a reason they finished in the bottom-third of the league in defensive efficiency last year and have only finished with a better-than-average defensive rating once in the last five seasons.
Denver Nuggets
Strength: Front-court and flexibility
Weakness: Point guard dependability
The Nuggets took off last season once they re-oriented themselves around the rare talents of Nikola Jokic. Jokic entered the starting lineup for good on Dec. 15; after that point it was the Nuggets — not the Warriors or the Cavs or the Rockets — that led the NBA in points per 100 possessions. Jokic himself averaged 19-11-6 from there on out, in only 29.7 minutes per game. He should continue as the team’s focal point in 2017-18, and Denver got him the perfect frontcourt partner in Paul Millsap. Millsap works well as a primary or secondary threat in the pick-and-roll, spaces the floor, fills in the blanks, and covers a ton of ground defensively. But it’s not just that combination that works for Denver. Wilson Chandler, Juancho Hernangomez, Darrell Arthur, and even the forgotten Kenneth Faried all allow the Nuggets to work through different forward-center combinations and shape-shift to take advantage of the opponent’s defensive weaknesses.
What might hold the Nuggets back is the lack of clarity in their point guard situation. Emmanuel Mudiay simply has not lived up to expectations, struggling with turnovers, poor shooting, and worse defense. Jameer Nelson led the team in minutes at the position last season, but that surely can’t be the plan again given his age. Denver has high hopes for the guard duo of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris, but Harris has clearly moved into an off-guard role and we don’t yet know if there’s lead-guard capability wrapped inside Murray’s skill set. It’s possible, of course, but not definite. For a team with designs on a sure playoff spot, the lack of answers at what has become the NBA’s most important position is an issue.
New Orleans Pelicans
Strength: Dominant bigs
Weakness: Wing talent
The Pelicans seem like they’re a step below the other teams in this group, even as it’s possible they have the two best individual players on any of the squads in Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. It took Boogie and Davis a while to figure things out after Cousins was traded to New Orleans, but it did look like they found some rhythm toward the end of the year. How that chemistry translates into the next campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Pellies have to find a way to cut bait on Cousins before this year’s trade deadline. If it looks like things are trending south and he might leave, they might be better off dealing him away than risking him walking away for nothing in return.
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The thing that could send them spiraling in that direction is the fact that, well, E’Twaun Moore might be the best wing on the roster. Solomon Hill is out for most of the year, perpetually-injured Quincy Pondexter was traded, Jordan Crawford is still Jordan Crawford, and Ian Clark is a question mark outside Golden State. Shifting Jrue Holiday off the ball to play next to Rajon Rondo is an interesting experiment, but those two can’t play all 48 minutes and they can’t guard big wings, either.