Fantasy Baseball 2017 Surprises and Disappointments
By Bill Pivetz
Throughout the 2017 fantasy baseball season, there were a lot of players who surprised and disappointed us. Which ones made the biggest impact?
As the final games come to a close, it’s time to look back at what a fantasy baseball season this was. We had a lot of rookies make a name for themselves. The elite proved why they were drafted as high as they were. There were also some negatives.
Unfortunately, not everyone can live up to the expectations of being the ace of your rotation or the anchor of your offense. Players get hurt, others fall into a slump. All of it is unpredictable. We try to do our best to make predictions based on past performances and hope for the best.
It’s a little too early (probably not) to do rankings for 2018, but it’s the perfect time to reflect the players that surprised and disappointed us this season.
I won’t be including injured players. You can’t predict that and there were way too many injuries this year. Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard definitely let their owners down, but because they weren’t on the mound, they couldn’t hurt you by having horrible outings.
This article will mention four players that either played over 120 games for a hitter or made at least 20 starts as a pitcher. The letdown players will have been drafted within the top 50 picks or so and the surprises have to have an ADP of 200.0 or lower. There is no such thing as a third-round surprise.
Before we get started, here are some honorable mentions for each award.
Ervin Santana, starting pitcher surprise.
Tommy Pham, offensive surprise.
Chris Archer, starting pitcher let down.
Carlos Gonzalez, offensive let down.
Miguel Cabrera has been a mainstay in fantasy baseball for years. As a second-round pick, owners expected him to be their best hitter if they drafted a pitcher first or a compliment to their first-round hitter. That wouldn’t be the case.
Cabrera posted career worsts in home runs, RBI, batting average and on-base percentage. He played in 130 games, only the second time he didn’t reach 150 games since his rookie season.
He hit just 16 home runs, 60 RBI and .249 with a .329 OBP. I recently wrote a piece comparing Cabrera to Chris Davis. To summarize, Davis wasn’t that far off of Cabrera when comparing their 2017 stats.
As the Tigers continue their rebuild, Cabrera won’t have the same surrounding cast as years prior. J.D. Martinez was shipped to Arizona (and likely stays), Justin Upton went to Los Angeles and Victor Martinez was placed on the 60-day DL.
Cabrera was a consensus top-15 pick. As of this writing, he was ranked No. 436 overall on the Player Rater. If we had this information on draft day, Cabrera wouldn’t have been drafted in 20 team leagues.
It’s been a great career for Cabrera but I think his days as a top-20 pick are over. He could be a nice mid-draft pick with 25-home run potential. Let’s not make the same mistakes the 2017 Cabrera owners did.
I could have picked a couple of different people here. Aaron Judge was up for contention but we expected a huge power surge. Maybe not 50 home runs but he was looked at as one of the top rookies.
When comparing the ADP and Player Rater, Whit Merrifield stood out. He was not drafted in ESPN leagues but it currently the No. 12 hitter and No. 22 player on the Rater. With his five-tool abilities, Merrifield was a steal for anyone who was able to pick him up.
With second base and outfield eligibility, fantasy owners were able to maneuver him around in a couple of different spots. And Merrifield gave you a lot back on the field. He hit .289 with 19 home runs and 78 RBI while scoring 80 runs and stealing 34 bases.
The Player Rater weighs steals a little more than the other stats, so that inflates Merrifield’s value some but that doesn’t take away that he was a top-five second baseman to end the year.
As with the Tigers, the Royals could be rebuilding next season. Their core of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and others are free agents. Merrifield is a key piece to the next era but without those players, his counting stats could drop some.
I won’t rank Merrifield in my top-10 but he could be serviceable as a middle infielder or starter in AL-only leagues. It was a surprise season for sure but we should ease our expectations for 2018.
Yu Darvish was the 12th starting pitcher drafted in ESPN leagues, with a sixth-round ADP. Heading into this season, Darvish was coming off of a 3.41 ERA, 1.116 WHIP season in just 17 starts.
His value was a little lower this season because of the missed time. To start the season, he didn’t look like himself. Darvish had a few 4-run outings but was still striking out batters at a high rate.
He ended his time with the Texas Rangers with a 4.01 ERA and 6-9 record. Not the greatest but many thought the move to the National League would help him finish the season strong. They weren’t wrong but it wasn’t to the extent we thought it would be.
In nine starts with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Darvish posted a 3.44 ERA, 1.148 WHIP and 4-3 record. He also had an 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9, both better than what he posted in Texas.
However, when you combine the stats along with his ADP and reputation, Darvish was a disappointment in 2017. His fantasy owners got another 200-strikeout season out of him. Though, the low win total and high ERA put him at No. 21 among starters on the Player Rater.
I do expect him to bounce back in a full season with the Dodgers. The NL is a better spot for him, though those offenses have some power potential.
Speaking of the NL West, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray put up top-10 numbers. Ray was drafted in the 22nd round, the No. 60 starting pitcher drafted. With the home run-friendly Chase Field and facing the Dodgers and Colorado Rockies, Ray still rewarded his fantasy owners.
In 160.1 innings, down 14 from last year, Ray had a better ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate. His walk rate was up but he allowed much fewer hits to maintain his WHIP.Ray finished the season with a 2.86/1.160/12.2 K/9
Ray finished the season with a 2.86 ERA/1.160 WHIP/12.2 K.9/4.0 BB.9/15-5 line. With many leagues still using wins as a pitching stat, he was a valuable pitcher in all formats.
Ray missed his 2016 strikeout by one in five fewer starts. He also allowed 70 fewer hits. He would have had to allow 10.4 H/9 in his 160.1 innings this season to reach 185 hits allowed from last year. That would have been a huge decline for the 25-year-old pitcher.
As the No. 2 pitcher in the Diamondbacks rotation, he will be a top-40 starting pitcher drafted next year. I think he is a legit No. 3 pitcher in fantasy baseball. With his strikeout rate and low walk rate, Ray has the “stuff.”
There were a lot of options for each award. Like I said at the beginning, I wasn’t going to include injured pitched as disappointments. It was very likely that if they were healthy, they would have performed up to their expectations.
Looking at the surprises and letdowns is a good way to see what players could rise and fall in drafts next year. Why would someone draft a player who struggled last year? They can’t bounce back, no way!
That’s when you make the steal of the draft. Let’s just hope your top picks aren’t next year’s disappointments.