Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Kris Bryant or Anthony Rendon?
By Gavin Tramps
Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon are both elite third basemen but which one do you want on your fantasy team in 2018?
Two of the hottest players at the hot corner will be on opposing teams when the Cubs’ Kris Bryant faces the Nationals’ Anthony Rendon in the NLDS.
Both players were exceptional producers in 2017, but perhaps Rendon overachieved while Bryant disappointed.
Third base is overloaded with talent, so there are plenty of options for you on draft day.
Surprisingly, given the strength and depth at third base, Joey Gallo led the position with 41 home runs. The 23-year-old is an extraordinary talent, but the feat of hitting 30% more home runs than singles may never be repeated. He offers undeniable power, but Gallo’s .201 career batting average will hurt.
At the elite end of third base, Nolan Arenado will be the first third baseman off the board. The Rockies’ superstar produced his third straight season of elite counting stats, averaging 40 home runs, 104 runs and 131 RBI in each of the three years.
Mike Moustakas enjoyed the best season of his career, hitting a franchise record 38 home runs for the Kansas City Royals. Will he be able to repeat the production in 2018? Much of his value will depend on where he signs in the offseason.
Manny Machado did not quite reach the very high bar he set after two straight top-five MVP finishes. His production was erratic throughout the season, which included a blistering 12 home run, 1.039 OPS August, followed by a dismal .587 OPS September.
One of my personal favorites is the Indians’ third baseman, Jose Ramirez. The 5-foot-9 Dominican led the position with 91 extra-base hits, and the 17 stolen bases helped elevate the switch-hitter to top of the ESPN Player Rater for third base.
Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson missed 49 games, and it looked like time had caught up with the 31-year-old until he exploded after the All-Star break. Donaldson’s 24 home runs in the second half were more than Bryant and Rendon hit combined.
Anthony Rendon (3B-WAS)
The former first-round pick from the 2011 draft was the best fantasy hitter on the Nationals this year. Rendon outscored Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman.
The 27-year-old hit 25 home runs, scored 81 times with 100 RBI and a batting average over .300.
All three elements of his .301/.403/.533 slash line represented career-highs and he was one of only five qualified hitters to walk more than he struck out. Perhaps that is the most telling sign that Rendon has matured into an elite hitter.
Rendon burst onto the scene as a 24-year-old in 2014 by leading the NL with 111 runs while hitting 21 home runs with 17 stolen bases and a .287 batting average. He looked like a five-category stud for years to come, but he disappointed fantasy owners with an injury-plagued 2015, followed by a below-expectations 2016.
Fantasy baseball owners have short-term memories, so Rendon slipped to the 14th third baseman off draft boards this year, with an ADP just inside the top-100. That will not happen in 2018.
The Nationals postseason success will determine whether Rendon receives the NL MVP consideration he deserves. According to Fangraphs WAR, Rendon was the third-most valuable hitter this year, behind Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve, who both play in the AL.
Rendon does not strive attention, and his game is not a highlight reel. He was not even an All-Star this season, but this lower profile could help make him a value pick on draft day.
Kris Bryant (3B-CHC)
If Rendon has a low profile, the third baseman at the opposite end of the spectrum is the Cubs’ Kris Bryant.
The 2016 NL MVP was the second overall pick in 2013 and is the face of the Cubs’ franchise. He has not even played 500 games in the major leagues, yet Buster Olney considers Bryant a lock for the Hall of Fame.
After 39 home runs last year, Bryant failed to reach 30 this season, although it could be argued that he is now a better hitter. Both his OBP and OPS were better than in his MVP season.
The 25-year-old dramatically cut his strikeouts, down from 199 in his first year in the major leagues to 128 this season. He also walked 20 more times than last season, taking him up to 95 free passes.
After averaging 100 RBI in his first two seasons, Bryant’s 2017 total of 73 was a very disappointing return. RBI is a statistic of circumstance rather than skill, and it is an outdated gauge of performance. However, RBI is still an important category in fantasy baseball, and it should be noted that Bryant’s teammate Anthony Rizzo drove in 109. Players with more RBI than Bryant this year include Scooter Gennett, Trey Mancini and Jorge Polanco.
I don’t know why Bryant’s hard-hit ball rate was significantly lower than previous years. Perhaps it is down to not selling out for the pulled ball and instead, trying to use all fields. In a year when more players were concerned with launch angles, Bryant dragged more hits on the ground than ever before.
Both Bryant and Rendon were top-5 third basemen with very little to choose between their 2017 seasons.
Bryant had an ADP of 5. He clearly did not return value for that pick. Conversely, Rendon offered excellent value for his ADP of 94.
As with all of these Fight Club verdicts, much is dependent on the value you can get in the draft room. Bryant should fall to the late first round or early second. Rendon was still available midway through the fourth round in a recent mock draft.
If I can get Rendon in the fourth round, then I am jumping at the chance, but I definitely want Bryant on my roster, even if I have to burn a first-round pick. He could be the best player in fantasy next season. He could be a perennial MVP.