Nylon Calculus: What is happening to the Cleveland Cavaliers?

The Cavaliers have started the regular season 3-5 with losses to the Pacers, Knicks, Pelicans, Nets and Magic. To put this into perspective, none of these five teams were projected to make the playoffs before the season began, and three of those losses were at home. Is it time to be worried yet?

It’s well known by now that LeBron James-led teams tend to coast in the regular season to conserve energy for a likely long playoff run. But this year’s Cavaliers aren’t just coasting. They’re outright terrible so far.

This is the worst start for James’ team in his entire career, even worse than in the years his team failed to make the playoffs. And it’s not as if James is playing fewer minutes — he’s currently averaging 37.0 minutes per game, good for fourth in the NBA.

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Is James himself struggling? Not quite. His individual performance has been right on par with his usual standards. He’s averaging 25.6 points on a career-best 66.4 true shooting percentage. This efficiency is especially impressive given the percent of his made field goals that are unassisted is at a career-high 68.3 percent. He’s also averaging career-highs in assists (8.9 per game) and blocks (1.1 per game).

So what’s causing the Cavaliers’ early struggles?

As you can see, their offense has been mediocre thus far (104.3 offensive rating, 15th in the league). Although their efficiency is fine (56.7 true shooting percentage, fifth in the NBA), they’re barely getting shots up (81.8 FGA per 100 possessions, 28th in the league). This is the result of too many turnovers and too few offensive rebounds.

But the more glaring issue is their defense (111.3 defensive rating, 28th in the league). They aren’t forcing enough turnovers (12.8 per 100 possessions, third-worst in the league), and their opponents are shooting extremely well (54.8 effective field goal percentage, third-highest in the league).

Some of this may just be bad luck; their opponents are shooting 40 percent from 3, something which will likely regress to the mean. But part of this is definitely just a result of lazy defense since their opponents average 19.6 wide open 3s per game (most in the league).

Isaiah Thomas is expected to return by January, and he’ll probably provide a boost to the offense. But with a Defensive Real Plus-Minus of -3.89 last season (second-worst in the league), he’ll almost certainly worsen the defense, so don’t expect him to fix all the problems.

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Fortunately, it’s still early, the Cavaliers are still in the East and LeBron James is still on the team. As long as those are all true, relax — they’ll probably be fine.