DraftKings NBA picks November 11: Gobert Could Have A Huge Night
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks November 11: Gobert Could Have A Huge Night
I want to thank all of our veterans today for protecting this country. Many of my friends and family have served, including many that never made it home. Hopefully you can enjoy your day, and for those of you with loved ones deployed, this is your day as well.
We are tipping the scales with 11 NBA games on our Saturday night DraftKings tournament. That means several teams play in back to back tilts, with the Bucks heading from San Antonio to Milwaukee and the Bulls heading from Chicago to San Antonio as the biggest trips. The Spurs, Jazz, and Suns all get back to back home games.
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The money line was down to 261.75 DraftKings points last night. My lineups started off great with Drummond and Giannis, but fell short because of Payton and Wes Johnson.
The winning lineup was actually up a bit to 369.25 DraftKings points. He got huge value from LouWill and a monster from Paul George to go with Giannis and Drummond.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
John Wall ($9,600): Wall has three straight games of at least 5x value. He looks like a lock for a fourth against a rebuilding Atlanta team that can’t stop anyone right now. Even if this turns into a blowout, I still see Wall being a big reason why. He looks to be the clear top option at point tonight if you use Harden at SG.
Ben Simmons ($8,700): The Kings, of all teams, were finally the first ones to hold Simmons under value while running the point. Of course, it wasn’t so much the Kings as it was the foul trouble and the 27 minutes that it held him to. We can’t predict foul trouble, but if Simmons is out there for 35 minutes or so, he’s getting at least 5x value no matter who the opponent.
Honorable Mention:
Dennis Schroder ($7,200): This is another solid spot for Schroder. It’s not like this Hawks team is devoid of talent. They are just young. Most of the growing pains for Schroder happened last year, so he is the stabilizing factor for this offense. He looks like a solid middle tier play against Wall tonight.
Jeff Teague ($6,800): I’m a little leery of Payton at altitude in Denver in the second game of a back to back, so I will attack the Suns. You know, the team that has allowed the most fantasy points to point guards for nearly the entire season. Teague hasn’t been the most consistent guy around, but he is a pretty good passer and a good shooter. Both things will serve him well against the Suns.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,400): There are some great middle tier values at the point tonight, so you don’t really have a reason to pay up for Wall and you can use Simmons at SF. Mike Conley is a solid bet to hit you value and not much else. Meanwhile, the Bucks made it very clear that they didn’t give up their 2018 draft for someone that was going to ride the pine. Bledsoe is starting for the Bucks from game one, and while it remains to be seen just how he will do, he looks like a good value with his price still this low. Especially against a Rockets team that doesn’t defend the point well.
Dark Horses:
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,400): The Cavs are not defending the perimeter well at all, so the rookie has a great chance to put up nearly the numbers that he did against Wall on Tuesday. However, leading up to that game Smith’s shooting had been poor. Let’s hope he didn’t cool off after three days without a game.
Mike James ($5,000): James runs the point against a below average defensive team in a fact paced offense. He looks like a really good bargain tonight. He normally is when he is this cheap, but his price dropped for really no reason. He will be widely used at this price, but I’m not sure I care. He could have upwards of 7x value.
Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,700): Remember him? The guy who spurned SMU for China, then had a rough rookie season in Denver and became an afterthought? Maybe he was dismissed too quickly. Mudiay is filling up the stat sheet from the bench nowadays. I use that term loosely. He has played at least 30 minutes in two of the last three games. Mudiay is mostly a scorer so he can be prone to off night, but playing an Orlando team on the second night of a back to back after being run ragged by the Suns looks like a nice matchup.
My picks: Smith(PG), Teague(G); Simmons(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Devin Booker ($7,900): The Timberwolves also have issues guarding on the perimeter. Jimmy Butler is a better defender than he used to be, but Booker will still get his shots for this team. Playing two games at home for a back to back is not nearly as bad as having to travel. I expect the Suns to be right back and running tonight.
Bradley Beal ($7,500): You all can play Beard if you want. I know, I know. He has back to back games of more than 80 DraftKings points. So why am I not playing him? He doesn’t have 80 combined in two games against the Grizzlies this year. I would much rather use Beal against the Hawks. They can’t guard anyone.
Honorable Mention:
Klay Thompson ($7,000): I trust Klay against the Sixers a lot more than Butler right now. Philadelphia is mostly solid, but the hole in their defense is definitely at shooting guard. Klay could have a pretty big night tonight because I expect the game to stay pretty close.
Eric Gordon ($6,300): Gordon has become almost a chalk play at this price. He has not had less than 26 DraftKings points in a game since Chris Paul went down, and he has topped 40 a couple of times. He lacks huge upside playing along Harden, but if Memphis is keying on Beard, they will be thinner against Gordon. In fact, Gordon has more DraftKings points against Memphis this season than Harden does.
Donovan Mitchell ($5,600): Whenever you come across a player that takes as many shots as Mitchell does at his price, he is going to be a nice flier for GPP’s. His shot volume will make him a favorite on DraftKings, but his lack of a consistent shot means his production is spotty.
Dark Horses:
Buddy Hield ($4,900): Hield’s shot was a little off on Thursday, but he still got close to 5x value. His move to the bench has helped every part of his game so far. Hield gets more minutes when his shot is falling, so there is palpable upside here. His floor is a little lower than we would like, but everyone in this price range carries at least some risk.
J.J. Redick ($4,700): Redick has still managed to hit 5x value against the Kings and Jazz, both of whom are decent on the perimeter. The Sixers need Redick’s shot from deep, so he will see plenty of minutes even if he is a defensive liability.
Frank Ntilikina ($3,800): He has worked his way into a timeshare with Jarrett Jack. The minutes will likely remain split like that for a while, but Ntilikina has racked up 24 assists over the last three games. His passing skills will make sure he always hits value when he is this cheap regardless of if his shot is falling or not.
My pick: Gordon(SG); Beal(SG), Ntilikina(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200): Giannis is what makes the Bucks go. Period. He is always worth playing because he might be the best player in the league right now. The Lakers have no one that can stop him. The only thing that might slow him down is the second night of a back to back.
Kevin Durant ($9,800): Dallas has allowed the third fewest points to small forwards this season. The Rockets were fourth, and they held LeBron to 47.5 DraftKings points. That’s not a bad total, but it isn’t enough for his price tag either. Especially when you can get that from a fully rested Durant at $1,000 less.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($7,000): Wiggins still takes a high number of shots even with Butler around. He is going to see plenty of open ones against the Suns tonight. He likely wont repeat the four steals he had on Wednesday, but he might get close considering the Suns’ up tempo style.
Harrison Barnes ($5,900): Barnes had a monster night against the Wizards on Tuesday. That was his second 40+ DraftKings point effort in his last three games. He will have a little harder time with LeBron tonight, but Cleveland as a whole is not playing all that well. There will be plenty of opportunities for Barnes to get his points tonight.
Robert Covington ($5,900): Covington is an absolute steal at this price. He has at least 34 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. The Sixers are realizing how valuable he still is to the team as well. Covington played a season high 35 minutes against the Kings on Thursday.
Dark Horses:
Justin Holiday ($5,400): Holiday is still not the most consistent piece for the Bulls, but he can really put points up in hurry. That gives him the kind of upside you covet in a GPP lineup. Holiday picked up the second most minutes on the team last night and led the team in scoring. The question is: can he do it against one of the league’s elite in the Spurs tonight? His price is low enough to find out!
Taurean Prince ($5,300): Prince was a pretty solid contributor as a rookie last year. This year he has a larger and more consistent role. The Wizards do have Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back, but they are still easing him into action, meaning that Prince will still have plenty of opportunities.
Wesley Johnson ($3,900): I expect everyone to be all over Jeff Green after his monster night on Thursday and off of Johnson because of his epic dud last night. Why am I flipping? Dallas is great against small forwards, and decent against guards. The Pelicans are not. Johnson should see far more open shots tonight than he did last night. Of course, if Gallinari is back, I’m out on Johnson.
My pick: Covington(SF); Prince(F); Antetokounmpo(SF), Covington(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Kristaps Porzingis ($9,400): What? Aren’t the Pelicans playing tonight? Yes they are, but Davis was locked down by the Raptors on Thursday, and the Clippers are even better against power forwards. It’s going to be an all out war down there. Davis may still hit value, but I think Porzingis will be about even with his score for about $1,300 cheaper. There is less risk with Porzingis tonight.
Blake Griffin ($8,600): For all the size New Orleans has up front, they are pretty pedestrian as far as allowing fantasy points to opposing frontcourts. Some of that has to do with a lack of depth, but Griffin is going to provide problems for Davis. He has channeled his inner Kevin Love and hoisted up an average of five treys per game. That can only help him tonight.
Honorable Mention:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,800): Some caution should be used with any Spurs tonight. It is the second game of a back to back, and they are playing a rebuilding Bulls team. This is the scenario in which Pop usually elects to rest players by either keeping them out the whole game or running the bench for 30 minutes. This is a cake matchup for Aldridge on paper, but beware of availability issues.
Aaron Gordon ($7,600): Gordon was a monster last night against the Suns, picking up his second game of more than 40 DraftKings points in three tries. He has an easy matchup on paper against the Nuggets as well. Gordon has a very high ceiling which makes him a good GPP play, but I am a little worried about a back to back ending in Denver.
Otto Porter ($6,500): Porter has cooled off some since his hot start, but he has still turned in two outing above 35 DraftKings points in his last three games. He struggles against larger teams, but that is one thing that the Hawks aren’t. Look for a strong night from Porter.
Dark Horses:
Lauri Markkanen/Bobby Portis ($5,900): If they spend most of their time jousting with Aldridge, chances are neither of them will have that great of a night. However, both of them played well last night for a Bulls team that desperately needs inside scoring. I am leaning more towards Portis because he matches up better with LMA, but chances are good that both hit value again tonight.
Dario Saric ($4,600): The Sixers have a huge test against the league’s elite with Golden State tonight. Even though this is just a regular season game, it is a chance for the Sixers to measure themselves. This game obviously means more to Philly, and for that reason, I think they show up and play. Saric is the type of player that can really give the Warriors problems. I expect him to see plenty of minutes and easily hit value tonight.
Luke Babbitt ($3,600): Babbitt was a great value play once again last night. It appears likely that Muscala will be out again, and Ilyasova is already ruled out. Babbitt is a great value play again, even if Muscala does manage to take the court.
My pick: Babbitt(PF); Saric(PF), Babbitt(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900): The Raptors did a great job on both of them Thursday night, but Boogie still got close to value. It is going to be a great battle inside for rebounds tonight between Boogie and DeAndre. That may take some of his value away, but if you are hell bent on rostering a New Orleans big, Boogie is the safer pick, but Davis has more upside.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300): Towns is athletic enough to play the style of the Suns without running himself ragged. The Phoenix interior is still a work in progress, especially if Tyson Chandler is still out and they don’t put Monroe in uniform. I like this matchup for Towns on a night where he may be under owned.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Jokic ($8,400): Many stay away from Jokic on a regular basis because he is pretty inconsistent. However, he drops more 50+ DraftKings points games than anyone else at his price. He destroyed the Nets to the tune of 74.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday. That is his upside, and why he remains such a popular GPP pick. Orlando is not great inside either, so he could post some pretty big numbers.
Rudy Gobert ($8,300): Remember what I said about what Jokic did to the Nets on Tuesday? Well, guess who Gobert plays tonight. That’s right, the Nets. By far the worst team in the league in fantasy points allowed to centers. Gobert is inconsistent as well, but I can see him dropping 50 tonight, and maybe even more.
Joel Embiid ($8,200): If Embiid is on the court, he should be in your lineup. When he is in there, he almost always scores more than 40 DraftKings points. He doesn’t have the upside of Gobert tonight, but he doesn’t carry nearly the risk either. He is practically an automatic 40. His low mark on the season is 38!
Dark Horses:
Marc Gasol ($7,400): Yes, I realize that this price is very high for what I usually have here, but there are so many great options at center tonight. Gasol is boring. I don’t know the guy personally or anything, but for fantasy purposes, he is boring. He does the same thing over and over again with an occasional outburst here and there. He lacks the upside of the higher priced players, but he is so very consistent…..
Brook Lopez ($5,800): The Bucks are very undersized, a trait that Lopez can take advantage of tonight. He has the ability to put up some pretty big games when given the chance. The Bucks are pretty sound defensively elsewhere, but they are weak in the middle. That could cause Lopez to be more of an asset on offense and put up some pretty good numbers. The same goes for Julius Randle in his limited minutes.
John Henson ($4,500): Thon Maker continues to take minutes from Henson,but Henson is by far the better fantasy player. With Greg Monroe gone, Henson plays about half the game now. That is more than enough time for him to hit 5x value.
My pick: Gobert(C), Embiid(UTIL); Henson(C)
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