Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Sunday’s winning tournament line-ups were built around the usual suspects as Russell Westbrook (77) and James Harden (70) were the leading scorers on the night. Rather than run through all the players – it would be easier to say this – if you played any sort of meaningful minutes for the Lakers or Rockets you probably racked up big time fantasy nights as the two teams combined for 290 points in a New Years Eve shootout!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to Start on this Slate:
Happy 2018 all – I hope you had a fun and safe New Years Eve and are ready to tackle the first DFS slate of 2018 with Picks and Pivots! As we do each day, we will use this space to get a first look at this slate with some of the key themes/players to watch which will help guide our roster build today!
We have a four game slate tonight with all four games starting between 7:30PM EST and 8PM EST so we “SHOULD” have all the information we need prior to lock!
Damian Lillard remains a game time decision for Portland and will likely go through shoot-around and pre-game warm ups again before a decision is made. If Lillard is IN then I simply will avoid this situation as I never want to attack a player who depends on his explosiveness/shooting to generate fantasy points if he is dealing with a hamstring injury. If Lillard is OUT, then we know the drill – you fire up Shabazz Napier ($10.7K) who has put up 33, 35, 40 and 45 fantasy points in his last four starts in place of Lillard.
The Lakers remain on the road tonight which means another game where Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be forced to sit out due to legal issues which means Josh Hart ($9.4K) will likely draw the start in his place again as he did last night. Against the Rockets, Hart put up over 37 fantasy points which considering he is still only priced at $4.4K on FanDuel would make him a lock and load value play in that format!
If you have been a bit distracted over the holiday season (and who can blame you), you may have overlooked the fact that Jeff Teague is injured which means Tyus Jones ($11K) will remain the starting point guard for Minnesota. Jones has seen his price bump on FantasyDraft and FanDuel ($6.4K) and this may be a spot we jump off. Jones is dealing with a dislocated pinkie and only logged 26 minutes of court time yesterday versus Indiana. In his two starts since Teague went out, Jones has only attempted 11 total shot attempts so the price increase combined with the injury and lack of aggressiveness on the offensive end make him a fade for me and I would much prefer to pivot to Napier at the same price point if Lillard is out.
NBA DFS – No Defense….in Brooklyn!
Apologies to the Beastie Boys for my awful introduction, but its early on New Years Day and the Advil has not yet kicked in! Even though we only have four games to choose from tonight, I actually think you can make the case to game stack every single contest on this slate but if there is one spot I am looking to prioritize it is this game in Brooklyn versus the Magic and the Nets.
This game has the fastest projected pace on the board and will pit two teams against each other ranked 30th and 28th in DvP/Def-Eff as a team. So let’s see – no defense and quick pace – yeah this is going to be fantasy gold!
The issue with the Nets side as always is that you simply cannot trust where the minutes/production will come from. On Friday night against the Heat, not a single Nets player logged more than 30 minutes and even yesterday against the Celtics we saw only three players log court time over 30 minutes as Kenny Atkinson went with an 8-9 man rotation. If I was going to use any Nets player on this slate it would be Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($12.5K) who has one of the most consistent minutes of any Nets starter and has put up 39 and 31 fantasy points in his two previous outings versus the Magic. The issue with RHJ is the price as even on FanDuel where he is $7.4K he seems to be priced for his ceiling and unless you are game stacking this one, I think you can better utilize that salary elsewhere.
Are the Magic actually a team we can count on for a tight rotation now? I am terrified to count on the Magic rotation as we have seen it burn us before, but a look at the last two games tells an interesting story. With Aaron Gordon ($14.5K) and Evan Fournier ($11.5K) back in the line-up and Nikola Vucevic still sidelined we have seen Frank Vogel run each member of his starting five for 30+ minutes in back to back games while no bench player has cracked the 20 minute mark.
If you are telling me that the Magic starting five will all get 30+ minutes of court time against Brooklyn, then this is stop #1 on my priority list tonight!
Gordon has returned to the Magic starting line-up with a bang, racking up 55.75 fantasy points in his last game against the Heat and will take on a Nets team he dominated earlier this season in his only meeting against them, putting up 60+ fantasy points on the back of 41 points and 14 rebounds!
PlayLine Play: Gordon is one of the featured plays in today’s PlayLine $1M Perfect Line Challenge and I love the idea of being aggressive with his point projection there after he dropped 40+ on this same Nets team earlier this season and has the added benefit of no Vucevic to take away usage!
Fournier is averaging 35 fantasy points over his last two games and will take on a Nets team he dropped 44 and 50 fantasy points against in his two previous outings. The price point on Fournier makes him a cash game lock and the match-up gives him massive profit potential as the Nets rank 27th in Def-Eff defending the SG position this season.
Bismack Biyombo ($11.4k) has put up 30+ fantasy points in three straight starts, racking up double-doubles in each of his last two games. The Nets rank 28th in DvP and 26th in Def-Eff against opposing Centers so the match-up is solid, although Biyombo’s price seems dead on which makes him a better cash game play than a GPP option.
Elfrid Payton ($14.6K and $8K on FanDuel) has seen his price rise to the point where he is one of the most expensive guards on the slate and for that reason, I LOVE him as a GPP play tonight as it should keep his ownership low. Payton’s range of outcomes varies wildly as we have seen him put up games as low as 29 fantasy points since Fournier/Gordon have been back but this is also a player with demonstrated 60+ fantasy point upside who gets an elite pace up match-up against a Nets team ranked 28th in Def-Eff against the PG position. The price is high no doubt, but Payton is one of the few players capable of “breaking the slate” and assuming the ownership is low, then I plan on loading up on Elf in tournaments tonight!
NBA DFS – Pivot to Minnesota and LA?
The Lakers/Wolves game has the second highest projected pace on the slate and no team sees a bigger pace boost than the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Both teams are playing on the tail end of a back to back with the Lakers coming off a massive shoot-out with the Rockets last night so there is the potential for “tired” legs but if we know one thing about Minnesota – they will play the same tight starter heavy rotation night in and night out!
With Teague off the court this season, no player sees a bigger usage boost than Jimmy Butler ($16K) who gets a 3.5% usage increase, leading the team with a 30% usage rate. Butler has played 40+ minutes in three of his last four outings and dropped 45 or more fantasy points in three of those four games tonight including 45 against this same Lakers team just a few days ago!
Karl-Anthony Towns ($17.7K) may be the premier play on the board tonight (all apologies to Giannis but when you fail to break 50 fantasy points in four straight and cost me over $20K, I will opt to spend elsewhere). KAT is coming off a 60 fantasy point outing yesterday against the Pacers and will take on a Lakers team that he just dropped 47.5 fantasy points against.
There is enough value on this slate already (and we can usually count on more to surface) that make stacking up Butler/KAT a core strategy for me tonight in all formats in this massive pace up game environment.
The value I am looking for comes in this same exact game, just on the other side of this court as a short-handed Lakers team without Lonzo Ball, Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be forced to lean on its reserves again today!
Tyler Ennis ($6.3K and $3.5K) drew the start at PG last night and is an absolute FREE SQUARE on both sites after putting up 45.5 fantasy points in 45 minutes of court time against Chris Paul and the Rockets as he logged 20 points, 11 assists and 4 rebounds.
Josh Hart ($9.4K) will likely draw the start at SG for the Lakers after putting up 37.7 fantasy points last night and will get one of the best possible match-ups against Andrew Wiggins and a Wolves defense ranked 26th in Def-Eff defending the SG position.
Julius Randle ($9.8K) is the player I wrestled the most with about how I wanted to treat him on this slate as after dropping a 50 burger on the back of 29 points and 15 rebounds last night, he will likely be one of the highest owned players on tonight’s slate. I never like chasing points, especially with a volatile option like Randle but the arrow is clearly pointing upwards as he has logged 28 and 33 minutes of court time for the Lakers the last two games and has the demonstrated upside to crush value at this price point!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up
G: Elfrid Payton ($14,600)
G: Evan Fournier ($11,500)
G: Tyler Ennis ($6,300)
F/C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($17,700)
F/C: Jimmy Butler ($16,000)
F/C: Aaron Gordon ($14,500)
Util: Julius Randle ($9,800)
Util: Josh Hart ($9,400)
Slate Overview: On a four game slate, my focus is locked in on the two fastest paced games of the night with the Magic/Nets and Wolves/Lakers looking like elite spots to build around. It may seem like I am ignoring the other two games but the reality is – we have three of the top ten defenses in the NBA going in those games (Bucks, Blazers, Raptors) and these are the clear two slowest paced games on the board. The name value on the studs in those games will draw ownership for sure but I see no reason to prioritize them over players in elite fast pace game environments against some of the worst defensive teams in the league!
Next: Sugar Bowl Game Preview and Predictions
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!
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