The Oakland Raiders are reportedly going to make a huge offer for Jon Gruden. Also, what does the playoff picture look like, and who is primed for a run?
Jon Gruden last coached in 2008, finishing up a 9-7 campaign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since walking away, Gruden has consistently come up in rumors at the completion of each season, with one team or another linked to his services.
Finally, it appears Gruden might be heading back to the sidelines and out of the broadcast booth.
On Saturday night, multiple reporters broke the story that Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis is willing to offer Gruden a piece of ownership in addition to a $10 million annual salary. With the immediate firing of Jack Del Rio — who in February was awarded a four-year deal by Davis on the heels of a 12-4 season — this scenario seems ensured.
For Gruden, the chance to come back to Oakland — and eventually go to Las Vegas — must be enticing. The money is superb, any ownership stake in an NFL team is golden and the Raiders have young talent ranging from Derek Carr to Khalil Mack.
Still, it’s fair to wonder if this is the right move for Oakland. Gruden has been out of the game for a decade, and while he certainly has an impressive resumè headlined by a Super Bowl ring, there are concerns. For starters, Gruden won that title in 2002 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team inherited from Tony Dungy. In the three years prior, Dungy had two NFC Championship Game appearances.
Gruden failed to maintain that level of success, only reaching the playoffs twice over his final six years in Tampa. Super Bowl XXXVII remains the final playoff victory for Gruden and the Buccaneers.
All that said, Oakland should be optimistic if it can reel Gruden in. Del Rio has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons and is yet to win a division. Gruden is also a year younger than Del Rio and comes from an offensive background, having been an offensive coordinator before landing his initial top job with the Raiders in 1998.
Additionally, the AFC West is in flux. Philip Rivers is the epicenter of the Los Angeles Chargers, and he is 36 years old. The Kansas City Chiefs are two-time division champs, but they could be jettisoning Alex Smith for an unproven youngster in Patrick Mahomes. The Denver Broncos are easily the worst off of the quartet with an unsettled situation at both quarterback and head coach.
With Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger in their golden years, Gruden could be coming back at the right time and in the right place. His first challenge will be getting the best out of Derek Carr, who regressed after having a terrific campaign in 2015. While Carr isn’t a superstar-level player, he could certainly be better than the middling start we saw over the past four months.
In essence, hiring Gruden isn’t without risk. The reported terms of exorbitant, the decade-long layoff creates questions, and the roster still has a black hole on the defensive side. Still, Gruden is an unequivocal upgrade over Del Rio in any honest analysis.
For the Raiders, the potential hire would be an expensive gamble. For Gruden, he is in the catbird seat with everything to gain and nothing to lose.
Power rankings
Top 10 all-time playoff venues
1. Lambeau Field
2. Old Yankee Stadium
3. Memorial Stadium (Baltimore)
4. Orange Bowl
5. Metropolitan Stadium
6. Candlestick Park
7. RFK Stadium
8. Mile High Stadium
9. Three Rivers Stadium
10. CenturyLink Field
Quotable
"“The fact of the matter is it doesn’t matter,” Elliott said. “What’s the point of going what if? It already happened. You’ve got to look forward and control what you can control and make sure you come back ready next year contending and make it to the playoffs.”"
– Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott on his team’s lost season
For Dallas, 2018 represents a pivotal point. The Cowboys have a young duo in Dak Prescott and Elliott who burst onto the scene last year, only to see team and player regress some this fall. If Dallas climbs back atop the NFC East and becomes a factor once more, all is good.
If the playoffs elude the Cowboys again, perhaps it’s time to make a change with head coach Jason Garrett and evaluate whether Prescott is the player we thought he was in 2016.
Podcast
Matt Verderame and Josh Hill produce a new episode of Stacking The Box every Monday (Tuesday this week due to New Year’s). This week, the guys talk about playoff matchups and coaching rumors galore, plus a peek ahead at the draft.
Random stat
Tom Brady became the oldest passing champion in NFL history on Sunday, throwing for 4,577 yards at 40 years old.
Info learned this week
1. AFC playoff picture solidifies on wing and prayer
The finish to the AFC playoff picture was frantic on Sunday night. When the smoke cleared, the Cincinnati Bengals pulled off a stunning last-minute win over the Baltimore Ravens, allowing the Buffalo Bills to sneak into the dance. For Buffalo, the ticket breaks what was the longest active postseason drought in the NFL, dating back to 1999.
At the same time, the Tennessee Titans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee earned the right to play the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card round, all while eliminating the Los Angeles Chargers from contention. The two will open the playoffs on Saturday afternoon. Kansas City is the heavy favorite, laying more than a touchdown on most books. The same can be said for Jacksonville, which hosts Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.
It’s hard to see either wild card team advancing, although this NFL season has been nothing if not unpredictable. Regardless, the Bills, Titans (and Jaguars) should enjoy the moment after being left out in the cold for so many years.
2. Rams and Saints host Falcons, Panthers in opening round
With a win on Sunday, the Atlanta Falcons became the only NFC to make consecutive postseason trips. Atlanta will be the sixth seed, earning it a trip to Los Angeles where the Rams will be rested and waiting.
In the other Wild Card matchup, the Carolina Panthers take on the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome, hoping to beat them for the first time in three tries this season. Carolina could have won the NFC South with a victory, but fell to the Falcons.
The Rams have to be uneasy about their draw. Atlanta has been uneven this year but remains incredibly dangerous, with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman always posing a threat. Conversely, the Saints should be thrilled with the setup. New Orleans could conceivably get the Panthers and then the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisionals, who have looked lost without Carson Wentz.
With Atlanta’s win, the Seattle Seahawks missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
3. Browns go 0-16 … finally
The Cleveland Browns couldn’t be stopped this time. After years of doing all they could to go winless, Cleveland finally turned the trick on Sunday, falling 28-24 to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backups. The Browns are the first team to go winless since the Detroit Lions did so in 2008.
Cleveland should be cleaning house, continuing what it started with the firing of general manager Sashi Brown. Ownership has publicly backed head coach Hue Jackson, but after going 1-31 in his first two seasons at the helm, it seems preposterous to continue with this charade.
The Browns will have the first and fourth-overall picks in the draft, looking to build off a core that includes Joe Thomas, Joel Bitonio, Kevin Zeitler, Myles Garrett and Josh Gordon. Perhaps next year will be brighter days for a franchise that was once considered the gold standard in the NFL.
4. Coaching vacancies opening up
On Sunday, we saw the end of a few caching stints. For starters, the Indianapolis Colts will be moving on from Chuck Pagano, while the Chicago Bears have hopefully seen enough from John Fox. In Oakland, we’ve already covered the dismissal of Jack Del Rio.
Finally, we’ve long known about the opening with the New York Giants, an old-school franchise looking for a new hand. The Cincinnati Bengals are still in flux, with Marvin Lewis’ fate undetermined. On Monday, the Detroit Lions fired Jim Caldwell, creating another job.
On the other side of things, the Washington Redskins are standing pat with Jay Gruden. The same can be said with Todd Bowles of the New York Jets, Vance Joseph of the Denver Broncos and Hue Jackson of the Browns. In Houston, the Texans will look to replace general manager Rick Smith, who is taking an extended leave of absence to care for his ailing wife. Houston is retaining head coach Bill O’Brien, who has one year left on his deal.
Of the openings, the Giants are the most intriguing. New York has the second-overall pick and a competent quarterback in Eli Manning. The ownership is also solid with the Tisch and Mara families. Plus, it’s New York.
5. Interesting offseason to revolve around QBs
In most offseasons, the quarterback market produces a vast wasteland. Case in point: Mike Glennon was the free agent prize in 2017. This year, there should be a bevy of intriguing available names perhaps including Kirk Cousins, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford and others.
Cousins is going to command an insane bidding war, likely ending with him being paid more than any other NFL player in history. After two years on the franchise tag, Cousins is going to cash in something fierce, while Keenum’s suitors should also be multiple. The wild card? Bridgewater.
History lesson
Despite having three teams play their home games in Florida, the Sunshine State will host its first playoff game since Jan. 2009, when the Miami Dolphins fell to the rookie Joe Flacco and the Ravens in the Wild Card round.
Parting shot
Undergoing a changing of the guard is never easy. In fact, it’s usually messy.
The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks could try to delay the inevitable, but both franchises would be best-served to recalculate and start stripping away old parts of their foundation. In the interim, understand that both the Rams and San Francisco 49ers are well-positioned to be forces in the next few years, if not for quite some time.
Seattle is in a cap crunch and should be moving on from Jimmy Graham, Sheldon Richardson, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman and, maybe, Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks need to build around Russell Wilson and make the ext decade about him, not the aging Legion of Boom.
In Arizona, the future of head coach Bruce Arians remains in doubt. Regardless of the ultimate decision there, the Cardinals should move on from Carson Palmer. After allowing Calais Campbell, Tony Jefferson and Alex Okafor to leave via free agency last year, look for Tyvon Branch and Frostee Rucker to depart, potentially along with Jared Veldheer and Mike Iupati.
Arizona and Seattle have reached the end of their windows with these current rosters. The Seahawks are positioned to morph quickly with Wilson under center, while the Cardinals must find a quarterback and then go from there. It won’t be easy, but it’s time.
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