The 76ers will go as far as Joel Embiid can take them this season
The fact that the 76ers are still in the running to make the playoffs this season is a testament to the amount of talent they already have on their roster. While they are still in the infancy of their development, they have two All-Star caliber players in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons (both of whom have actually performed like All-Stars for most of the season) as well as quality role players in Robert Covington, Dario Saric, J.J. Redick and T.J. McConnell. They also have Markelle Fultz, who has the potential to be their third All-Star caliber player if he develops into the talent he was projected to be when he was selected with the first pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.
Considering the age of each member of their core players — minus Redick, who will be a free agent in the offseason — the 76ers have one of the highest ceilings in the NBA. When it comes to their success this season, however, it likely comes down to how available Embiid is over the remaining 44 games.
It’s not a new trend for the 76ers, who were competitive when Embiid was on the court and hopeless when he was on the bench during his rookie season. They only won 13 of the 31 games he appeared in — still a remarkable feat considering Philadelphia’s most used lineup on the season featured Nik Stauskas and Ersan Ilyasova — but Embiid’s value on both ends of the court was made clear by how the 76ers performed when he was on the floor (+3.2 points per 100 possessions) and when he was on the bench (-7.9 points per 100 possessions).
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Despite the addition of Simmons, this season has been more of the same. With Embiid on the court, the 76ers are scoring at a rate of 109.3 points per 100 possessions and giving up 99.3 points per 100 possession. With Embiid on the bench, their scoring drops to 100.2 points per 100 possessions and their defense gives up 107.0 points per 100 possessions. That’s like going from the Raptors, who currently have the second best record in the East, to the Bulls, who have one of the worst records in the NBA. It has translated into 17 wins and 12 losses for the 76ers when he plays versus two wins and seven losses when he doesn’t.
There aren’t many players in the NBA who have a higher on-court net rating (the margin a team outscores opponents by on a per 100 possessions basis) than Embiid this season. There are even fewer who have a higher overall net rating (the amount a team’s offense improves per 100 possessions combined with how much their defense improves per 100 possessions). In the case of Embiid, the 76ers improve by 9.1 points per 100 possessions on offense and 7.7 points per 100 possessions on defense when he is on the court, giving him an overall net rating differential of 16.8 points per 100 possessions. Only Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, Devin Harris and Jrue Holiday have him beat in that regard at the halfway point of the season:
The list is littered with role players, but there are also a handful of All-Stars and MVP candidates in Walker, Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook and Victor Oladipo. Out of that group, the only one who has a higher usage rating than Embiid on the season is Westbrook. It adds a little more weight to Embiid’s numbers knowing his role on the 76ers and how much the offense runs through him compared to someone like Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson or Milos Teodosic.
Furthermore, everybody on the 76ers goes from a plus to a minus whenever Embiid takes a seat on the bench. The 76ers, for example, have outscored teams by a total of 170 points with Simmons and Embiid on the court this season. With Embiid on the bench and Simmons on the court? They’ve been outscored by 125 points.
It’s a similar case for everyone else on the roster:
The good news for the 76ers is Embiid has been healthier this season. He’s been dealing with back soreness lately, but he’s already played in 29 games. (He played in 31 games all of last season). His minutes load has also increased from 25.4 per game to 31.2 per game. He didn’t register 30 minutes in a game once last season, and he’s already surpassed that mark 17 times this season. Those are all positive signs for Embiid and the 76ers as they continue to climb up the Eastern Conference standings.
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Where it gets complicated is the 76ers still have to be careful with how they handle Embiid. As much as it would mean to the franchise to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2011-12 season, it’s not worth risking the future health of their best player in the process. It might be hard for them to find the right balance between now and April, but doing things like play him 48 minutes in a triple overtime loss to the Thunder in the middle of December certainly isn’t the answer.