NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday January 16
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Monday’s NBA DFS split slates were dominated by the stars as the early slate highest scorers were Giannis Antetokounmpo and John Wall who put up 64 and 54 fantasy points in a head to head battle. On the late slate it was not surprising at all to see LeBron James and Kevin Durant rank 1-2 in scoring as the Warriors/Cavaliers game was full of fantasy points for the games biggest stars!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
At first glance, this four game slate feels a bit underwhelming to me which may be a lingering hangover from the NBA overload we had on Monday but there are still some interesting spots to dive into today! As we head into this four game Tuesday slate, there is not much injury news we are waiting on which should make it relatively easy to sort through early on in the day and adjust as needed.
The biggest unknown right now is in Phoenix as T.J. Warren and Josh Jackson are both questionable to play and Marquese Chriss is doubtful to play against the Blazers. Warren missed the last game Phoenix played which pushed Josh Jackson into the starting line-up and if he were able to suit up today in place of Warren he makes for an excellent play coming off back to back 30 minutes outings where he averaged 35 fantasy points per game.
The injury to Chriss should clear the way for another 30+ minutes of Dragan Bender ($9.1K and $4.8K) who has played 30, 32 and 39 minutes in his last three games with varying degrees of success. Bender went off against OKC for 43 fantasy points, followed by 33 fantasy points against Houston and then put up a giant stinker with only 3 fantasy points in 30 minutes against the Pacers.
This is going to be the spot where everyone jumps off but in GPP’s I think you stay the course here and overlook the fact that it was one bad shooting game where he went 0 for 7 from the floor. Bender is a talented player, drafted 4th overall in 2016, and is locked into 30+ minutes at a bargain price. On a four game slate where there does not appear to be a ton of early value, I think you go back on a Bender (see what I did there?) and ride the Dragan (yep, another one) in this match-up.
Outside of Bender and maybe Jackson, the only way I am targeting guys like Devin Booker or Damian Lillard is in a game stack in the hope that this games stays close. The Suns have lost by a combined 55 points to the Blazers in their first two meetings and have lost by 17 and 23 points the last two games so there is a ton of blowout potential in this spot. The Blazers on the surface have an elite match-up as they get the biggest pace increase on the slate facing a Suns team ranked 30th in DvP and 28th in Def-Eff but you need to question whether this game in Portland will stay close enough for you to get value from the higher priced plays.
NBA DFS – Build Your Core:
The highest projected scoring game on the night is happening between the Timberwolves and Magic in Orlando where Minnesota has the highest team total on the slate projected to score more than 4 points higher than their season average.
Minnesota gets an elite match-up, facing a Magic team ranked 29th in DvP and 30th in Def-Eff while ranking 25th our worse in Def-Eff at four of the five positions on the court! The beauty of the Wolves is we know we will get minutes stability from their starting five which makes them incredibly appealing as a core part of our build against a bad defense on a four game slate.
Jimmy Butler ($16.7K/$9.4K) is the lead dog on this Minnesota squad, leading the team in usage at 27.2% and FP/M at 1.25 over the last two weeks. What is interesting to me on FantasyDraft is that he is priced at a $2k discount as opposed to teammate Karl-Anthony Towns however on FanDuel these two are priced within $100 of eachother.On FantasyDraft, I will gladly take the discount and roll with the guy who gets the higher usage and fantasy point output and will take on a Magic team ranked dead last in the NBA in Def-Eff at defending opposing wings.
Jeff Teague ($13.3K/$6.9K) is my favorite player to pair with Butler as his price point remains reasonable and he gets an incredibly soft match-up against a Magic team ranked 30th in DvP, 27th in Def Eff and 26th in DRPM versus opposing PG’s. Teague has put up 37 and 39 fantasy points in his last two games and now gets one of the best possible individual match-ups making him an elite play in all formats.
If you are not looking at Minnesota for your core – you may opt to pivot to the New Orleans/Boston game which has the second highest total and pace of any game in action tonight. I am not going to tell you that the Pelicans big men are not elite plays – especially on a short slate like this as DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis could be the top raw point performers when all is said and done but do we really want to pay a premium for them considering they are going up against the best defense in the NBA?
The Celtics rank first in DvP and Def-Eff as a team and rank no worse than 8th in Def-Eff at any single position so while the talent of Boogie/Brow is worth paying for on any given night you need to question whether you want to invest in the two highest priced players on this slate in THIS match-up.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
One of the things I do each day before I dive into the individual plays is I look at the overall team defensive rankings and how that aligns with the pace of play for the games on the slate. What really stood out to me is that in three of the four games we have elite defensive teams going up against bad defensive teams (hence the projected totals for teams like Minnesota/Boston).
As an example:
- Minnesota gets to take on a Orlando team ranked 30th in Def-Eff while Minnesota themselves is ranked top 10 in terms of DvP which makes “running it back” with Orlando players tough to swallow.
- Portland gets to face off with a Suns team ranked 28th in Def-Eff but the Suns have to go against a Portland team ranked 4th in the same metric.
- New Orleans has to take on the #1 ranked defense in the NBA while the Celtics get a favorable match-up against a Pelicans team ranked 24th in Def-Eff as a team.
So what we have here is three of our four games with extreme match-ups pitting a top 10 defense against a bottom 10 defense which makes finding a game stack hard to find.
The game that will likely get over-looked tonight is Dallas/Denver as it has the lowest total/pace of any of the games on the slate but its pits two mediocre defensive teams against each other as they rank 18th and 21st in Def-Eff.
Nikola Jokic ($16.5K/$9.7K) was out the first time these two teams matched up but this appears to be a great spot for him against a Dallas team that is ranked 26th in Def-Eff against opposing Centers. On FanDuel he is priced $200 more than Karl-Anthony Towns which makes him an exceptional pivot play off the more popular KAT!
Jamal Murray ($11K/$6.7K) has underwhelmed in back to back games but it is worth noting that he has the kind of match-up to make him an elite GPP play tonight as the Mavericks rank dead last in Def-Eff in defending PG’s this season. In fact over the last two weeks, the Mavericks have given up 50+ fantasy points to starting point guards in three of their six games which makes Murray an intriguing GPP option that will likely get over-looked.
Normally I am not a fan of targeting teams playing in Denver due to the altitude but the Mavericks have been off since Saturday and we have some injury news that will open up/secure value for a Dallas team that seems under-priced across the industry.
Dennis Smith Jr. ($13.1K/$6.5K) has played 30+ minutes in three straight games and has put up 34 fantasy points per game over those three contests and will get the added bonus of playing a Denver team ranked 28th in DvP and Def-Eff against opposing PG’s.
Yogi Ferrell ($8.8K/$5.3K) has entered the starting line-up for Dallas as they play a smaller starting five and has logged 33, 36 and 42 minutes over his last three games while putting up 31, 33 and 33 fantasy points. Ferrell has shot 10 three-pointers per game in each of his last two outings and at this price point is one of my favorite value plays on FantasyDraft.
Harrison Barnes ($12.9K/$6.8K) and Wes Matthews ($9.5K/$5.2K) are not usually plays I target in GPP formats but tonight where I expect the ownership will be incredibly low, locking in two players that are guaranteed 30+ minutes is an interesting strategy. Barnes is averaging 37 fantasy points per game over his last five outings and the price point allows you to lock in a solid core piece that will not prohibit you from spending up elsewhere.
Matthews is going to get his 30-35 minutes as he does every night and the fact that J.J. Barea is already ruled out just adds even more security to his role. Stacking the Mavericks may not seem like the obvious spot on this slate but this is a team that scored 122 points against the Nuggets in their first meeting and you get the benefit of targeting a starting five that is locked into consistent 30+ minutes and is well rested.
Even if you do not intend to fully stack the Mavs tonight, I think using them as a core foundation piece is a viable strategy as they have solid floors and the price points allow you the ability to stay target 1-2 high-priced stars!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,500)
PG: Yogi Ferrell ($5,300)
SG: Wes Matthews ($5,200)
SG: Andrew Wiggins ($6,500)
SF: Jimmy Butler ($9,400)
SF: Harrison Barnes ($6,800)
PF: Dragan Bender ($4,800)
PF: Trey Lyes ($5,800)
C: Nikola Jokic ($9,700)
Slate Overview: The more I look at this slate the more I am inclined to go with a more balanced roster, fading the high-priced Pelicans big men against an elite defense and building around an under-priced Mavericks core that easily allows me to pay up for the Timberwolves starters against the Magic. Good luck tonight all – may all your players actually play and no late scratch whammies!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!