NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday January 26
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Thursday Night’s NBA DFS slate was so thoroughly un-enjoyable yet wildly hilarious at the same time as the 5 minutes before lock we were littered with news that Picks and Pivots cover boy Tim Hardaway Jr. was out, then in, then also out, then possibly in and ultimately ruled out. Between the news and twitter notifications trolling me (well-played by the way), I am pretty sure my phone was on overdrive as I attempted to swap off him while also thinking – but what if he plays?
Ultimately it honestly didn’t matter because the players that went off, Bradley Beal (72) and Kevin Durant (71) were not players I was actively targeting on a four game slate but even with so much chaos and frustration I had a ton of fun interacting with you guys on Twitter and really that is what it is all about. Maybe one day I will actually get Tim Hardaway Jr. right…
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate?
We get a ten (nine) game slate tonight to kick off the weekend with a lone game at 7PM EST (Atlanta/Charlotte) that FanDuel and DraftKings are including but FantasyDraft has opted to start their main slate at 7:30PM EST and ignore the lone 7PM EST game which I love. If you are one who likes to play on multiple sites, this staggered format is so much fun as you can set your FanDuel/DraftKings lines for 7PM and then spend the next 30 minutes building line-ups on FantasyDraft – great way to kick off your weekend!
The biggest injury news is the expected return of Giannis Antetokounmpo who will step back on the court for the Bucks as they take on the Brooklyn Nets which will kill the short-lived Eric Bledsoe/Khris Middleton super usage value! From a GPP perspective, I actually like the idea of going to Giannis in this spot as recency bias will lead to much lower ownership especially with other studs on this slate at the same position.
Tyreke Evans is questionable with an illness that could force him to miss his second straight game which in theory could open up a ton of value from Memphis….if you like that kinda thing.
The Lakers and Bulls on paper look like a really intriguing game to target as we have the 4th and 6th fastest paces teams over the previous 15 games squaring off against each other. Add in the fact we have some key pieces out including Lonzo Ball and Kris Dunn and in theory this should be an all-in kind of spot! The issue is we have two teams that play maddeningly deep and inconsistent rotations which make this a GPP only game stack kind of spot for me.
The Bulls did not play a single player over 26 minutes against the Sixers after their Double OT contest with the Pelicans and actually opted to bench Jerian Grant to start the second half and start David Nwaba. The Lakers meanwhile keep doing Laker things where finding “the guys” to target becomes essentially a dart throw as outside of Brandon Ingram, the minutes never seem to be guaranteed for anyone! This is a great match-up to target as the Bulls rank 29th in Def-Eff as a team so there is appeal here and I would limit my exposure to Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma as they are all sporting a 28-32% usage rate over the last week while putting up 1.2-1.4 FP/M. Just keep in mind that there is risk with the Lakers rotations so I would only go this route if you are multi-entering a GPP and looking to game stack this spot!
NBA DFS – OH YOU THOUGHT I WASN’T GONNA PLAY HIM DIDN’T YOU!
Happy Tim Hardaway Jr. Redemption Night!
Before you close your browser, un-follow me on Twitter and send flaming bags of poop to my virtual doorstep – hear me out, tonight’s the night he pays off for us I promise (disclaimer: promises are not guaranteed and will likely lead to him resting after lock again).
The Knicks and Suns as the “late night hammer” is a fascinating game to target in DFS tonight as it has the third fastest projected pace and will feature two teams that rank 27th and 28th in Def-Eff over the last seven games. Now let’s add in some potential injury news and value opening up and my friends we have a VERY interesting game stack.
Let’s start on the Phoenix side first where it is reported that Jay Triano will make starting line-up changes tonight for the Suns. With this game being a 9PM EST start it is possible we will not have any official news but there is enough information here to make an informed guess on how this will play out.
Lineup note: Coach Jay Triano will likely make change to Suns starting lineup Friday.
— FantasyLabs NBA (@FantasyLabsNBA) January 25, 2018
First off, T.J. Warren is questionable to play with a knee injury and although it sounds like general soreness it could open the door for Josh Jackson ($8.3K) to draw a start in his place. We have seen the upside recently with Jackson in his start against the Pacers where he played 30 minutes and racked up 33 fantasy points and would be an exceptional value play in all formats. The other injury news to watch here is Marquese Chriss ($9.7K) who looks ready to return to the line-up which in theory should send Dragan Bender back to the bench. Prior to his injury, Chriss had really started to find his footing and had put up 34 or more fantasy points in three of his last seven starts and would make for an intriguing GPP upside play if he re-enters the starting line-up.
We have two potential wildcards here as we already know Alex Len is questionable for tonight’s game after missing practice with an injury Thursday which could mean we see Greg Monroe ($11k) re-enter the starting line-up and kudos to FantasyDraft for the pre-emptive price hike here which will make this a less chalky option assuming he does get the start. Even with the price hike, the upside here is VERY real as he has put up 43, 35, 35, 32 and 38 fantasy points in his last five starts and would become one of my favorite plays on the board, especially on FanDuel at only $4.7K.
The other wild card here is Isaiah Cannan ($8.5K, 3.7K on FanDuel) who could become the new starting PG in Phoenix as speculated by Scott Bordow od AZCentralSports.com:
"Finally, Triano said a “lack of good play” is a factor. That could indicate a change at point guard. Tyler Ulis is averaging just 5.6 points per game in January and shooting 33.9 percent from the field and 26.1 percent from 3-point range. He’s also struggled on the defensive end, not because of a lack of effort but a lack of size. At 5-feet-10 and 150 pounds, Ulis has trouble keeping bigger guards out of the lane and defending them in the postBackup Isaiah Canaan is only 6-feet but he’s built more physically at 201 pounds, and he gives the Suns the threat of a 3-point shooter at the position; Canaan is shooting 37.5 percent from 3-point range in 15 games with Phoenix.“I have a lot of things to think about,” Triano said."
Canaan has put up 20 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games off the bench, hitting 6x value in two of his last three games on FanDuel and would become a near must play in the starting line-up and may even be that now with the simple threat of more playing time!
We may have buried the lead here but if Warren is out – Devin Booker ($15.1K) will simply soak up ALL the usage for the Suns as Booker leads the team with a 33% usage rate when Warren is off the court!
On the Knicks side, we can zero in on the two key offensive options as Kristaps Porzingis ($14.8K) has seen his price drop nearly $1,000 from yesterday on FantasyDraft and will take on a Suns team he dominated for 55 fantasy points in their only other match-up this season.
Last but not least – number 3 in our media guide and number one in our hearts – Tim Hardaway Jr. ($12k) will return to the court after a rest night last night. The rest part of this is important as people may see the early “Out” designation and move away from him not realizing he is fully healthy and should play his full complement of minutes tonight.
At this point we all know what THJ is – a volatile GPP volume scorer who has put up 25 or fewer fantasy points in three of his last five games but has sprinkled in 40+ fantasy point outings in his other two games.
So to summarize – we have a game where the entire starting line-up for the Suns is in question and they may end up starting Thunder Dan Majerle for all we know and we want to pair that with Mr. Late Scratch – Tim Hardaway Jr. Oh and did I mentioned this is the latest starting game on the slate so we likely won’t have any definitive news – buckle up baby!
NBA DFS – Chaos in Cleveland:
It is interesting to me that the Cleveland Cavaliers have the second highest projected point total on the board, projected to score 4 points more than their season average when you consider they will take on a Pacers team that is dead last in the NBA in pace over the last 15 games. With a team that is seemingly on the brink of mutiny facing a slow-paced Indiana team in a game we just saw and neither team cracked 100 – this game may be a core stack for some but is more of a pivot for me.
I get the appeal of this game but rather than stack it, I will simply ignore the noise in Cleveland and an over-priced Victor Oladipo and lock in the goods – LeBron James ($20.3K). LeBron has put up 58, 59 and 61 fantasy points in three meetings with Indiana this year so regardless of the chaos there is no star with a seemingly safer floor than King James tonight and when you factor in the craziness going on right now with the Cavs, we could see a ceiling Angry LeBron game at any moment!
The issue with this game is finding the secondary pieces you really want to build around and I expect this game becomes a popular stack especially on the Indiana side considering the Cavs rank dead last in defensive rating over the last seven days.
The one guy that I am finding myself gravitating towards today is none other than LeBron nemesis – Lance Stephenson ($8.7K) who played 29 minutes against the Cavs the last time these two team met and put up 41 fantasy points while driving King James to this altercation…
https://twitter.com/RealboyNithin/status/952019341851136001
So to recap – Cavs are in a free fall (but don’t worry – putting Tristan Thompson into the line-up will change everything) and we get an Angry LeBron against the one player in the NBA who drives him absolutely insane. This is going to be fun and I love the idea of stacking these two against each other as you know the Pacers will have Lance on the court with King James every chance they get!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-up
PG: Isaiah Cannan ($3,700)
PG: Isaiah Thomas ($6,200)
SG: Devin Booker ($8,000)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,400)
SF: LeBron James ($10,900)
SF: Lance Stephenson ($4,800)
PF: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700)
PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,600)
C: Greg Monroe ($4,700)
Slate Overview: This is a really interesting slate for a Friday night as we have a ton of great games including one we didn’t even touch on with Houston and New Orleans which has the highest game total and fastest projected pace. This is going to be a high scoring night with so many pace up spots and studs on the slate so keep an eye on the news, especially in Phoenix where the potential value could allow you to go Stars and Scrubs….not sure which one of those groups our boy THJ falls into!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!