Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Thursday Night’s NBA DFS slate was all about the Thunder-Nuggets stack as the top three fantasy producers on the night came from this game as Nikola Jokic (75), Russell Westbrook (70) and Paul George (62) all went off and when paired with Jamal Murray (46) you had the makings of a GPP winning game stack. Personally, I am kicking myself as I was all over this game stack from the start yesterday but opted to go with Carmelo Anthony over Paul George which was a legit 50 points swing! Oh the fun of DFS!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
As we head into a solid Friday NBA DFS slate, we have some big time news we will need to wait on that could totally change our approach to this slate and for me it all centers around the Milwaukee Bucks. Tonight was supposed to be a joyous night for Milwaukee as they welcomed back Jabari Parker who was scheduled to play 15 minutes off the bench as he ramps up his on court time. Frankly, I could not wait to see how Parker fit in with this team and although he is not DFS relevant yet, post the All-Star Break he could be a guy we roll out with regularity!
The issue is the Bucks are an injured mess right now as Eric Bledsoe sat out on Thursday due to an ankle injury that limited him to only 2 minutes of court time the game before. The fact that Bledsoe was doubtful to play Thursday and ultimately ruled out – it would not shock me to see him sit out again tonight.
Ok no Bledsoe – no big deal – we can just fire up guys like Malcolm Brogdon and Giannis Antetokounmpo who see big usage bumps with Bledsoe off the court! Well, not so fast…
Malcolm Brogdon left the Bucks locker room on crutches with a stabilizing cast on his left leg. Was on the phone and respectfully declined to talk with media, which is understandable considering the circumstances.
— Matt Velazquez (@Matt_Velazquez) February 2, 2018
Giannis Antetokounmpo said he twisted his left ankle pretty badly in the fourth quarter. He’s having trouble putting weight on it and said he’s walking with a limp. He’ll have to see how he’s feeling tomorrow. Hits keep coming for the Bucks.
— Matt Velazquez (@Matt_Velazquez) February 2, 2018
It would seem likely Brogdon is a no go for this game and there is almost no chance the Bucks will push their franchise star after he had trouble putting weight on his left ankle less than 24 hours prior to tonight’s tip-off.
So what in the world does that leave us with? Khris Middleton ($13.3K) would become a near must play in all formats if all three of these players are ruled out as he sees a 13% usage boost, leading the team with a 40% usage rate and 1.1 FP/M. In the four games that Giannis has missed this season – Middleton has put up 46, 51, 55 and 64 fantasy points for an average of 54 fantasy points which would return over 4x value on FantasyDraft and make him a core play for me!
John Henson ($9.3K) is one of the few Bucks starters we can count on major minutes as he has played 28+ minutes in five straight games and has averaged 28.5 fantasy points which would put him right at target value (3X on FantasyDraft) with upside for more as the Knicks will force Henson to stay on the court due to their large front-court duo in Porzingis/Kanter.
Outside of Middleton, this could thrust fringe players like Sterling Brown ($8.2K) and Sean Kilpatrick ($6.2K) who are both minimum priced on a site like FanDuel into major minutes. Brown has already been a player seeing 20+ minutes a game off the bench so would seem like the safest bet to soak up the additional minutes while Kilpatrick would be an interesting GPP dart throw with the Bucks potentially so short-handed. With this being an 8PM EST start in a favorable spot against the Knicks, this news will be critical to watch throughout the day as we could easily plug-in Middleton and some value pieces here which would capture upside and allow us to save salary for the next game!
NBA DFS – Core Build – All the Pelicans
If there was one message I hope that you all took from yesterday’s Picks and Pivots it was that this Oklahoma City team is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA without Andre Roberson and they need to be a team we aggressively stack against going forward.
How much will the Thunder miss André Roberson's defense?
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 28, 2018
With Roberson joining Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and Steven Adams on the floor, the Thunder allow 95.9 points per 100 possessions.
The Big Four without Roberson, allow 114.5 points per 100. pic.twitter.com/W9hnLEnEqr
Last night was proof positive of the impact as we watched Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray absolutely light up this Thunder team and now tonight we get to go after them with a short-handed New Orleans Pelicans squad as the Thunder play on the tail end of a back to back!
Sometimes we do not need to over think things in DFS – Anthony Davis ($21.2K) will be without DeMarcus Cousins and we just saw The Joker drop 29 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists against this same OKC team – this is officially a fade at your own risk spot for The Brow.
The Pelicans are going to be in a game environment with the second largest game total and second fastest projected pace which should set up perfectly for Jrue Holiday ($14.5K) to take advantage of the same spot we saw Jamal Murray go for almost 50 fantasy points last night.
Davis and Holiday are going to be the obvious plays but I think there is some sneaky value across the rest of the New Orleans after their trade for Nikola Mirotic which sent Omer Asik, Jameer Nelson and Tony Allen to Chicago. First things first, it sounds like Mirotic is more likely to make his debut on Saturday which would leave the Pelicans with essentially 8-9 active bodies on the roster!
I’m told there’s a chance Nikola Mirotic will make his #Pelicans debut tomorrow night in OKC, but the more likely scenario is Saturday in Minnesota.
— Scott Kushner (@ScottDKushner) February 2, 2018
He will wear No. 3.
On the surface, you may not think that losing guys like Asik and Nelson matter for DFS but consider for a second that both players logged material minutes (24 and 19 last game) off the bench last game which opens up some additional run for many of the fringe guys.
Ian Clark ($6.8K) will likely gain steam as a value play today as game log watchers notice his 30 minutes of court time last game with 29 fantasy points but frankly there is more to this play than a simple trip through the box score. What was most interesting to me in looking at the game flow is that when the game was on the line – who got the fourth quarter run for New Orleans? Clark checked in for “Starting Point Guard” Rajon Rondo with 4 minutes left in the third quarter and where Rondo never re-entered the game, Clark was asked to play all but 2 minutes the rest of the way!
Nelson played 20 minutes in that game as well, seemingly at the expense of Rajon Rondo ($8.8K) and although there is certainly massive risk in using Rondo there is also GPP merit in playing a guy who legitimately may be forced on to the court. The Pelicans will only have three guard options, (Rondo, Holiday, Clark) with Nelson out of the fold and unless they start playing Mike James it would not be crazy to think Rondo could re-enter the rotation tonight for some meaningful minutes in this fast paced game!
Lastly, Dante Cunningham ($7.1K) assuming Mirotic is out, may find himself in a similar situation to Rondo in that he is a “starter” in name but rarely sees the minutes to correlate with the title. The issue tonight is that without Asik on the floor there is no other front-court options for the Pelicans unless you want to roll the dice on a Chieck Diallo type! Cunningham is not a sexy option by any means and people may see the 10 minutes he played last game without realizing he left due to a lower back injury but he is expected back tonight and if Mirotic is out, then you simply lock Cunningham and his 25-30 minutes in and take advantage of the added court time against a bad defense on a back to back!
NBA DFS – Run it back with Russ:
With my initial goal to fit as many Pelicans into my roster build as possible, it makes all the sense in the world to run it back with Russell Westbrook ($21.6K) and potentially go extreme Stars/Scrubs tonight with Westbrook/AD on the same roster! Yeah I know, the Thunder are on a back to back but Westbrook has Red Bull coursing through his body and if there is one player in the NBA I would not be worried about fatigue it would be Westbrook who basically defied all logic last season as a one man show, playing 100 MPH every night for major minutes!
Westbrook and the Thunder played the Pelicans earlier this season and not shockingly, Beastbrook went off for 22 points, 16 rebounds, 12 assists and 65 fantasy points! Over the last seven games – the Thunder rank 5th in pace of play while the Pelicans rank 7th – making this the perfect game environment to stack up tonight at the core of your build!
I am still a bit bitter as I write this as last night I opted to utilize Carmelo Anthony in my game stack instead of Paul George in what turned out to be a FIFTY point fantasy swing. I cannot hold grudges in DFS and neither should you and it is worth noting that both of these players excelled in this spot earlier this season as George (51) and Melo (42) both had exceptional games against the Pelicans. In last night’s game George had a 32% usage rate while taking a team leading 26 FGA and would be a great addition to a game stack tonight!
If we want all these studs, we are going to need to find some value tonight and thankfully it is the NBA where we can all but be assured of news to break and value to open up. On the Thunder side it was interesting to see Jerami Grant ($7.5K) have an expanded role and production in their game last night as he played 25 minutes and put up 31 fantasy points on the back of 18 points and 6 rebounds. Alex Abrines ($6.1K) also saw significant minutes off the bench, playing 29 minutes at SG in comparison to “starter” Terrance Ferguson who only played 4 minutes! If you are game stacking this contest like me, I think you can use some of these fringe bench plays who are going to play 20-25 minutes to help you fit in the more expensive front line plays like Westbrook/AD/PG/Jrue etc.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up:
PG: Russell Westbrook ($12,300)
PG: Ian Clark ($3,700)
SG: Khris Middleton ($7,500)
SG: Jrue Holiday ($8,200)
SF: Dante Cunningham ($4,200)
SF: Taurean Prince ($4,100)
PF: Anthony Davis ($12,300)
PF: Jerami Grant ($3,800)
C: Brook Lopez ($3,900)
Slate Overview: With my initial focus on the Pelicans-Thunder tonight as a game stack it will require a significant Stars and Scrubs approach if you want to build around Westbrook and AD but we should get some value with the injury/trade news we are waiting on. We will need to keep an eye on the Bucks injury situation and whether or not Mirotic will make his debut tonight, but we have some interesting value already we can use, especially on FanDuel where we can utilize Brook Lopez at near minimum price in his return to Brooklyn against a team he dropped 50 on earlier this season!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!