Kirk Cousins isn’t worth top-dollar in NFL free agency
Kirk Cousins has thrown for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of the past three seasons, and yet he’s not worth the contract he’ll receive.
On March 12, at 4 p.m. ET, all 32 teams can begin frantically calling agents of players around the NFL. It’s the start of the league’s free agency tampering period, a 48-hour window that will encompass a whirlwind of rumors, contracts and pen almost to paper.
Of all the available names this offseason, Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins is the biggest. Cousins, 29, has played his first six seasons in the nation’s capital, earning a reputation as a good player who falls shy of great. He has one NFC East title to his name and was a 2016 alternate Pro Bowler, replacing Matt Ryan.
Due to the position he plays, the statistics he’s garnered and his age, Cousins will cash in on record levels in a few weeks. The announcement from whichever team lands him will bring celebration to the fanbase, signaling a commitment to winning and a reason to believe the Super Bowl is within sight.
Quietly, though, the astute fan will realize that their team just locked up an inordinate amount of cap space in good enough instead of great.
Cousins will certainly represent an upgrade when he finds his landing spot. The Denver Broncos are desperate to get off the Trevor Siemian-Paxton Lynch carousel. The Arizona Cardinals are without a single quarterback on their roster, and the New York Jets aren’t about to start Christian Hackenberg. The Cleveland Browns are positioned to throw fistfuls of cash his way with more than $100 million in projected cap space, while the Buffalo Bills would be elated to land a long-term answer under center.
Any of those teams could use Cousins, but none of them should engage in a full-fledged bidding war.
Cleveland, Denver and New York have four of the first six picks in April’s draft, and selecting a quarterback out of college makes far more sense. While there is the risk of a bust, the upside is considerable. Instead of signing Cousins, a soon-to-be 30-year-old, you get a player much younger on a cheap rookie deal. For reference, the Houston Texans will pay Deshaun Watson $13.8 million for his first four seasons.
The Bills are also well-positioned to find their answer in the draft. Buffalo has the 21st and 22nd-overall picks, giving it ample ammunition to trade up. Getting Cousins to play with a limited offense in a brutal climate could prove impossible anyway, but even if he would consider the notion, Bills general manager Brandon Beane would be wise to spend elsewhere.
All told, each of the aforementioned options for Cousins are nowhere near winning a Super Bowl. Spending what is likely to be $30 million per year and close to $100 million guaranteed is asinine when the ceiling is being a decent team instead of a championship-caliber outfit. Signing Cousins to that amount would be cap hell, limiting the supporting cast that can be build around him and shackling the organization to purgatory.
Of any team with a need at quarterback, the Minnesota Vikings make the most sense on the surface. Minnesota has $50 million to spend and is seeing all three of its quarterbacks hit the market. However, inking Cousins would make re-signing other stars such as Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Danielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks to extensions borderline impossible.
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In the end, the idea of acquiring Cousins at his expected salary is better in theory than practice for a variety of reasons. Still, the former Michigan State will get his money and the wild expectations that come with it.
When the grand experiment fails, don’t blame the man taking the money, blame the short-sighted management which took the risk, knowing full well the challenges ahead.