Fantasy Baseball 2018: 7 Leadoff outfielders to target in deep leagues
By Gavin Tramps
The more at-bats a player gets, the more chances he has of contributing on your fantasy team. We take a look at seven leadoff hitting outfielders you can get in deep leagues
It is estimated that the leadoff hitter gets 100 more plate appearances over the course of a season than the No. 8 hitter. Those extra plate appearances give many more opportunities to get on base, swipe bags and score runs.
It is not only quantity; it is quality as well. Being on base ahead of the team’s best hitters will undoubtedly result in getting driven in at a better rate.
Of course, we would all like to roster Mookie Betts or George Springer, but in deep leagues, you will need to fill out your lineup from players further down the draft board.
All of the seven players mentioned below are available with an ADP of at least 360.
Albert Almora (ADP 416)
The Cubs need a leadoff hitter, and currently, that job could be Almora’s. He is the best OBP hitter not named Rizzo, Bryant or Contreras, and he improved as the season progressed, slashing .331/.519/.850 in the second half.
Almora hit eight home runs in less than 300 at-bats, so a return of 12-15 home runs in a full season looks realistic. The former first-round pick doesn’t offer much of a threat on the base paths, but the potential for 100 runs getting on-base ahead of the Cubs’ elite hitting trio, is enticing from a pick outside of the top-400.
Unless the Cubs recruit Jon Jay or another free agent, Almora will get the majority of the playing time at center field, so expect a career-year for the 23-year-old who finished last season with 1,000 OPS in September.
Juan Lagares (ADP 694) / Brandon Nimmo (ADP 555)
With Michael Conforto likely to start the year on the DL as he recovers from season-ending shoulder surgery, a platoon of Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo is expected to patrol center field and leadoff for the Mets.
In 252 at-bats last season, Lagares hit three home runs and 16 doubles with seven stolen bases and an uninspiring .250/.296/.365 slash line. As a right-handed hitter, he is expected to see most of the action against left-handed pitchers, but Lagares is worse when a southpaw is on the mound. Last year, he hit .218 with .604 OPS against left-handers.
Despite the dismal stats, the Dominican offers some fantasy intrigue as he has redeveloped his swing with the hitting guru acknowledged with transforming the swings of J.D. Martinez and Chris Taylor. Lagares is available outside of the top-600 picks so could be sensational value if the reports of his hitting improvements are correct.
Nimmo offers limited power and even less speed, but he gets on-base, which is a vital asset for any leadoff hitter. The former first-rounder has a .367 OBP in the majors, which is the best on the Mets behind Conforto.
If Lagares is poor vs. LHP, then Nimmo is atrocious, with .190 AVG and .530 OPS last season. Against right-handers, the 24-year-old offers interesting fantasy value in leagues which allow daily lineup changes. He hit .281 with .878 OPS and launched all five of his home runs against righties in just 135 at-bats.
Denard Span (ADP 479)
The veteran offers undervalued contributions in all five categories. Last season only 19 players scored at least 70 runs with 12 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a batting average above .270. Mike Trout was the only player to achieve it in fewer games than Denard Span, and Trout’s teammate Andrelton Simmon is the only player apart from Span to have an ADP outside of the top 100. Yet, the season was a disappointment for the Giants’ center fielder.
After his first healthy offseason for years, Span is determined to thrive with the new opportunity leading off for the Tampa Bay Rays. The 33-year-old will be a useful player in leagues that allow daily lineups, as he is still very good vs. right-handed pitchers but seldom gets a hit vs. left-handers (as shown by his .576 OPS).
It will be hard to find another player with a draft position in the similar range who can offer the same level of counting stats as Span.
Curtis Granderson (ADP 519)
The Blue Jays’ latest addition could help solve their ongoing leadoff hitter problem. Devon Travis cannot stay healthy, and they do not appear to want to promote former top-prospect Anthony Alford. Toronto utilized eight players at the top of the lineup last season, with Kevin Pillar (.300 OBP) getting the majority of the work. He destroyed left-handers but only hit .230 AVG with .628 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers.
Curtis Granderson has far superior on-base skills, but unlike Pillar, he only hits right-handers. Even in a down season like 2017, Granderson still hit 21 home runs, 21 doubles with .806 OPS in 345 at-bats vs. RHP. He is incredibly durable, averaging 145 games of the last 12 years, and he will help in OBP leagues but hinder in batting average leagues.
Mikie Mahtook (ADP 370)
With Ian Kinsler moving to Anaheim, the Tigers need a new leadoff man and that could be Mikie Mahtook. The 28-year-old enjoyed a breakout season last year with 12 home runs, 15 doubles, six stolen bases and a .276/.330/.457 slash line in 348 at-bats. It might not seem that impressive, but it was a better offensive display than Miguel Cabrera or Victor Martinez.
In fact, Mahook improved as the season progressed, and hit .283 AVG (.841 OPS) in the second half of the season.
He gets on base, can swipe a bag, hits for average and has the power to go deep 15-20 times a season. Mahtook is expected to be the Tigers’ primary left fielder in 2018, and with an ADP of 370, he could provide useful fantasy value at a very low cost.
Charlie Tilson (ADP 329)
The White Sox trotted out Adam Engel for 93 games in center field last season, and the 26-year-old was easily the worst at the position in the majors. There was clear daylight between his 37 wRC+ and the 66 wRC+ of Billy Hamilton, the second-worst center fielder. Chicago needs to improve this year.
Charlie Tilson slashed .282/.345/.407 in Triple-A in 100 games in 2016, with four home runs, 16 doubles and 15 stolen bases. He tore his hamstring in his MLB debut and then missed the whole of the 2017 season with a stress fracture in his right foot and then a broken ankle.
He impressed in the Arizona Fall League, and if he breaks camp with the White Sox, Tilson could offer sneaky fantasy value if he can recapture the speed which enabled him to swipe 46 bags in the minors in 2015.
FINAL QUICK TAKE
Outfield is deep. Even in the late rounds, you can pick up a 20 home run slugger like Granderson or a five-category contributor like Span. The two less-experienced outfielders of Almora and Mahtook could see everyday at-bats and look set to produce career years.