NBA Trade Deadline: Not all second-round draft picks are created equal

Loads of second-round draft picks get moved before the NBA trade deadline every year. Often seen as small-value assets, second rounders can grease the wheels on potential deals, or even end up being the centerpiece in certain moves.

Sometimes, those picks are nearly valueless. Sometimes, though, they’re immensely useful. Draymond Green, Marc Gasol, Hassan Whiteside and Isaiah Thomas were all taken in the second round of their respective NBA Drafts.

So, are second-round picks secret treasures resulting in All-Star caliber players, or are they simply nice trade throw-ins? The answer depends on what kind of second-rounder we’re talking about, and reveals a problem with how the NBA community views these picks.

First round picks are always discussed as assets of variable value. The Atlanta Hawks 2018 first round pick is much more valuable than the Golden State Warriors 2018 first — one could be the first overall pick, and the other will likely be one pick away from being a second-rounder.

That nuance is picked up on by essentially everyone who follows the NBA. There was a sigh of relief among Cleveland Cavaliers fans when they were assured they had traded away their own first-rounder on deadline day, not the Brooklyn Nets first the team also possesses.

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Unfortunately, fans and pundits alike don’t give as much thought to the second-rounders moved. That’s a shame, because much like first round picks, second rounders vary wildly in value.

Picks in the 30s are genuinely useful. Draymond Green was picked No. 35 and Hassan Whiteside went No. 33 overall. Most of the players who are pointed to as examples of second-round picks being valuable are chosen in the 30s, with some notable exceptions (Marc Gasol went No. 44 and Isaiah Thomas, of course, was the last overall pick in 2011).

Picking out superstars isn’t necessary to showcase the values of high second round-picks, though. In the last four drafts alone, here is an incomplete list of players taken between pick no. 31 and pick No. 39 in the draft: Jordan Bell, Semi Ojeleye, Malcolm Brogdon, Patrick McCaw, Deyonta Davis, Willy Hernangomez, Richaun Holmes, Montrezl Harrell, K.J. McDaniels, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jerami Grant.

No All-Stars yet, but a Rookie of the Year and a bevy of useful role players — with some starters mixed in — have all been found in the second round in just the last four years. They’re just mostly found very early on in that round.

Here is a complete list of players taken between picks No. 50-60 in those same drafts who have logged a single minute in the NBA this season: Georges Niang, Joel Bolomboy, Kay Felder, Daniel Hamilton, Marcus Paige, Abdel Nader, Tyrone Wallace, Monte Morris, Kadeem Allen, Alec Peters and Jabari Bird.

All of those players were selected in the last two drafts, and many of them have only had a brief cup of coffee in the NBA as their teams try to gauge their impact. No players drafted No. 50 overall or later in 2014 or 2015 have logged a single minute this year. Many of them never got a look in the league.

There are certainly late second-rounders who do end up having good careers. James Ennis, Patty Mills, E’Twuan Moore, Ramon Sessions and of course IT have found a lot of NBA success. They’re also some of the only names taken No. 50 overall or later who even a pretty dedicated fan would recognize.

Meanwhile, over the span of years those players were picked, guys like Khris Middleton, Bojan Bogdanovic, Chandler Parsons, Jonas Jerebko, DeAndre Jordan and P.J. Tucker were taken in the 30s, and that’s not naming the examples cited earlier or several other rotational players selected in that range.

Additionally, picks in the 40s tend to be about as valuable as you’d expect: less so than picks in the 30s, but more so than picks in the 50s (plus 60 overall).

Armed with the knowledge all second-rounders are not equal, some of the trades made before and around the NBA trade deadline might now look different. For example, the Charlotte Hornets gave up their 2020 and 2021 second-rounders plus Johnny O’Bryant’s salary for Willy Hernangomez on deadline day. It was a bad move.

Hernangomez was pretty good in his rookie year, but he (and Hornets star guard Kemba Walker) will both hit unrestricted free agency before those picks are set to convey. Even with Kemba around, Charlotte’s pick this year is No. 40, very close to that 31-39 range which has yielded so many productive, cost-controlled players.

Without Walker, Charlotte will be terrible. Those picks could both end up coming in the 30s, representing two vital assets the Hornets could use either in a rebuild or in a re-tooling around their core. For those potential valuable future assets, Charlotte acquired a center who will be fighting Dwight Howard, Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky for minutes.

It’s a bad deal, plain and simple. This is not new to the Hornets, who also traded their 2018 second-rounder (No. 37), plus the Brooklyn Nets’ second-rounder in 2019, as part of a deal to get Courtney Lee, who is no longer on their roster. In two deals, Charlotte gave up four picks likely to all fall within the 31-40 range. Bad teams often stay bad for a reason.

On the other end of the spectrum, some fans of the Milwaukee Bucks expressed outrage when the team gave up a second-rounder (which will likely convey in 2020), plus Rashad Vaughn’s contract, to acquire Tyler Zeller and some depth at center.

The Bucks have had an up-and-down season, and even still their second rounder this year is projected to come in at No. 52 overall. With Giannis Antetokounmpo in his prime in 2020 and the Bucks likely planning on contending around that time, they probably gave up a pick in the 50s.

The difference between what Charlotte gave up and what Milwaukee gave up is astronomical. The Bucks, barring a disaster almost no second-round pick could help with anyway, gave up a pick which likely turns into a player who plays a season or two in the NBA, at most.

The Hornets gave up two picks who could both be real, productive players in their acquisition of Hernangomez. Those picks in the 30s matter. For proof of that, just look at the NBA’s best team, the Golden State Warriors.

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Golden State has bought picks in the 30s from teams over the last two NBA Drafts, and turned them into Patrick McCaw and Jordan Bell. The Warriors should be commended for strong scouting to be sure, but it’s not like they found both of those players with their own picks at the very end of the draft.

They knew there would be value left after the first round, and acquiring the No. 38 pick (where both McCaw and Bell were taken) is much easier than getting one at the end of the first round–and much cheaper, on the salary side of things.

Second-round picks do indeed matter, they just don’t matter all the same, much like first-rounders. It’s time to start acknowledging these nuances when trades go down.