DraftKings Early MLB Picks April 6: Should we move off Carrasco?

KANSAS CITY, MO – APRIL 01: A general view of Kauffman Stadium on April 1, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. The scheduled game between the Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals was postponed due to the bitter cold and expected snow accumulation. The clubs will play a day-night doubleheader on Saturday, April 28, with the makeup contest scheduled for 1:15 p.m. (Photo by Brian Davidson/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks April 6: Should we move off Carrasco?

Friday is a light day on the MLB schedule. There are nine games, but only two are earlier in the afternoon. Neither game is threatened by rain, but it could be windy in Kansas City. We had no rainouts yesterday, but the windy game yielded few runs.

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We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These picks are based largely on past stats. Obviously, these are not a true indicator of what will happen tonight, but they can provide good insight and trends to help us pick some winners.

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PHOENIX, AZ – MARCH 31: German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies delivers a pitch in the third inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on March 31, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Carlos Carrasco ($12,800): Carrasco should be 100% owned this afternoon. Seriously. There are some contrarian people that are going to try to avoid this, but I’m not sure how you can. The Royals are hitting only .189 in 143 at bats off Carrasco, but they do have five homers and 17 runs. The thing that gets me is the 41 strikeouts. No one else has the strikeout potential of Carrasco, and I am expecting lower scoring games in the afternoon with the possible exception of Cleveland. Let others chase the offense. Carrasco is going to outscore the rest by a large margin.

Middle Tier:

German Marquez ($6,800): Marquez has never faced the Braves, but he does have a 7-3 record with a 4.29 ERA in 15 career Coors Field starts. The balls don’t really start hopping out of Coors until the weather gets warmer. There is more potential for Marquez than most on this early slate. The whole goal here is to find a second pitcher that doesn’t destroy our lineup. Marquez fits that bill.

Danny Duffy ($6,600): Duffy was rocked on Opening Day by a much less potent offense than this. The career numbers for Duffy against Cleveland aren’t that bad. Cleveland is only hitting .238 in 122 at bats against Duffy, but they do have five homers and 14 runs. The 28 strikeouts help mitigate the damage, but there is still some risk here.

Bargain Pitchers:

Brandon McCarthy ($6,000): There is some strikeouts potential here for McCarthy. He has fanned 22 Rockies in 87 at bats. The good news ends there though. The Rockies are hitting .299 with two homers and 12 runs in that span. McCarthy is also 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four career starts at Coors Field.

SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 4: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies hits an RBI double during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on April 4, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Trevor Story has a double and a RBI in his only at bat against Brandon McCarthy. If Tony Wolters starts at catcher, he has two singles and two runs scored in his career against McCarthy. Nolan Arenado has both of the Colorado homers against McCarthy, but it only 3-15 lifetime. DJ LeMahieu is 7-15(.467) with a walk, two runs scored, and a RBI off of McCarthy.

Freddie Freeman is a good option with the platoon advantage, but these Coors Field markups are way out of line for a cold April game in Denver.

Francisco Lindor is only 2-8 against Duffy, but he has a homer and three RBI. Jason Kipnis is 7-26(.269) with a walk, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and four RBI off of Duffy.

Middle Tier:

Dansby Swanson is off to a good start, and his price is pretty manageable here. Ryan Flaherty has been better than advertised for Atlanta, so he could be worth a look as well. I don’t care for the price tag on Ozzie Albies, but he should have plenty of potential near the top of the order.

I really like Whit Merrifield here. He is 6-12 with a walk, a double, a triple, a homer, a steal, three runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Carlos Carrasco. Alcides Escobar is only 7-37(.189), but he does have four RBI against Carrasco. We have to save somewhere to use Carrasco.

Bargain Shoppers:

Yan Gomes is a little higher priced for a catcher, but he is 6-18 with two doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and two RBI against Duffy.

If Drew Butera starts, he does have a homer and three RBI against Carlos Carrasco in his career. The bad news is that he is just 2-12 lifetime off Carrasco.

SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 4: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies hits a single during the second inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on April 4, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Charlie Blackmon is 5-15 with two walks, a steal, and a RBI in his career against Brandon McCarthy. Carlos Gonzalez is 5-17(.294) with a walk, two runs scored, and four RBI. Play the pitcher here, not the park. McCarthy is the weakest pitcher on the slate, so attacking him makes sense. Coors wont help much today.

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Middle Tier:

Call me crazy, but I like Nick Markakis here. Power isn’t his game, so if the ball isn’t carrying, it doesn’t really matter. However, Colorado has a huge outfield where balls can get lost in the gaps. That really favors Markakis. Fast starter Preston Tucker looks pretty good too.

Bargain Shoppers:

Brandon Guyer tattoos lefties, and Danny Duffy is no exception. Guyer is 5-8 with a double, two runs scored, and a solo homer off of Duffy.

The Royals outfield is weak against most. They are even worse against Carlos Carrasco. The only one I would even consider as a punt play is Jon Jay.

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Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have the tail end of the NBA season covered.