DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – Valero Texas Open

DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – Valero Texas Open

Welcome to the Getting Up and Down DFS Golf article! My name is Josh Thomas and you can find me on Twitter at @dfsupnorth and in this weekly article we will be looking at a few golfers trending up and a few trending down to help you get up and down in Daily Fantasy Golf! The focus of this article is for DFS Golf players who are only playing a few lineups each week. Information will be relevant for those who play 150 unique lineups, but the main goal is to help the casual DFS Golf player see some green screens.

Last week at the RBC Heritage, Satoshi Kodaira outlasted Si Woo Kim to take home the Tartan Jacket. No one got to watch it live though because the coverage was on tape delay. Its 2018, and we have an entire channel dedicated to golf, there is absolutely NO reason to not be able to watch all 18 of their holes live on TV. Last week was a mixed bag for our picks. Adam Hadwin was a late WD which threw me into a bit of a tailspin with my roster construction. I decided to recommend either Kevin Na or Tyrell Hatton as a pivot…and both promptly missed the cut. Kevin Chappell struggled mightily again but Si Woo Kim was my number one GPP Punt play, so if you were able to avoid some of the disasters with Na, Hatton, and Chappell, and paired Si Woo with Kevin Kisner and others you probably had a pretty profitable week. I faded Dustin Johnson, Luke Donald, and Marc Leishman last week and those all turned out to be great plays as Donald and Leish missed the cut and DJ seemed uninterested, especially Saturday where he absolutely blew up.

This week we get to head back to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open where the bombers have reigned for the past decade. Back in Texas on Bermuda grass, there have been a few specialists who have had a lot of success here throughout the years, but first lets look at the course and what to look for when building our player pool.

DFS Golf: Valero Texas Open – Course Breakdown

The Valero Texas Open moved to TPC San Antonio’s AT&T Oaks Course seven years ago and since that time we have seen bombers favored heavily in the top ten and winning most years. Names like Kevin Chappell, Luke List, and Daniel Summerhays have showed up at the top of the leaderboard, but short hitters aren’t completely eliminated as we have seen Steven Bowditch win here as well as Jimmy Walker.

The Par 72 AT&T Oaks Course plays at 7,435 yards with a standard ten par 4’s,  four par 5’s and four par 3’s. All of the par 5’s measure over 550 yards, with two over 600, and all but one of the par 3’s are over 200 yards, including the 13th hole that measures out at 241 yards though if you hit the green you have a good shot at a birdie. The four most difficult holes on the course are all par 4’s and two are back to back in holes 9 and 10. An accurate approach game, especially from distance (>200 yards) will be essential here. While you need to putt well to win, you don’t have to be world-class, as evidenced by recent winners like Kevin Chappell.

There is little to no water hazards on the course and the par 4 9th, doesn’t even have any bunkers. This should be beneficial to a guy like Sergio who has had some water issues lately. That doesn’t mean you can’t make a big number though, as guys try to get too cute from trouble, or make a perfect shot after taking an unplayable lie. Kevin Na made his infamous 16 (most on a hole in history) here in 2011.

This is just a beast of a course that requires you to hit it long, straight, and on the green, so those are the key stats were going to look for this week.

Custom Model Key Stats (all statistics provided by FantasyNational.com)

SG: Tee to Green

SG: Approach

Driving Distance

Birdies or Better Gained

Bogey Avoidance

Greens in Regulation Gained

It looks like it’s going to be windy there at least on Thursday and Friday so we will account for that and only look at players last 12 rounds played under windy conditions, on bermuda greens, on courses over 7200 yards. Here is our top ten for the week:

1. Adam Scott
2. Kevin Chappell
3. Charley Hoffman
4. Harold Varner III
5. Brendan Steele
6. Ryan Palmer
7. Jaime Lovemark
8. Billy Horschel
9. Sergio Garcia
10. Nick Taylor

A few things stick out right away…most of these guys pound the ball, all ten are in the top 45 in driving distance given the conditions. And if you take out Horschel and Sergio, they are all within the top 30. There is also a few former winners or guys who have crushed here. Chappell, Scott, and Hoffman have all won a Texas Open, while Ryan Palmer has a course history of T6, T4, and T6 the last three years.

I’m intrigued by Horschel and Steele as Billy has really had his game going lately and Steele should come in underowned but has one of the best skill sets for a course like this. I’m not interested in Chappell this week as he has been very underwhelming, missing two cuts in a row. Palmer will be chalk because of his history and price. Lovemark could be sneaky, he mashes it and can make tons of birdies. Sergio is VERY expensive but could be worth a shot in GPP’s. HV3 is another guy who mashes it and at his price tag is worth a punt in GPP’s especially since he’s made the cut here twice and had a top ten two years ago.

In this section we will look at a couple of golfers that you should target in your lineups this week. I’ll differentiate between golfers that I think are Cash or GPP Viable or Both. All statistics that I use are from FantasyNational.com where I build a custom model each week based on statistics I feel are going to be essential to help you win in DFS Golf.

Adam Scott: DK $9600/FD $11,700 

I don’t want to do it, but I’m going to be rostering a ton of Adam Scott this week. He ranks at the top of model and played well at the Masters’, a former winner of the Texas Open and someone who has completed the Texas slam, there’s just too much going for him that I can’t deny it. I’ve been burned by him SO many times in the past, but this is a spot that maybe makes the most sense for him right now. Australians in Texas when the wind picks up is a thing and I’m going to be all over Scott, even if that means me sweating 3 footers all weekend.

Looking at my model, Scott ranks first in the entire field in SG: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, Birdies or Better gained, and Greens in Regulation gained. That is insane. The statistics say he should not only contend, but should win this week. I think my next guy is going to garner a ton of ownership, so Scott could be a good pivot, or even paired together might be an effective strategy.

Luke List: DK $10000/FD $10900

It’s time. I’ve been a never Luke List person my entire time playing DFS Golf, and I played him once this year in the Career Builder where he MC’d. But all the stars are aligning here for Luke List to break through. This is a tournament that fits his skill set perfectly. He bombs it (4th on Tour), gains strokes off the tee (10th on tour), respectable in Strokes Gained Approach (32nd on Tour), and is 16th in birdie average. He’s coming off a 3rd place finish at the RBC Heritage that doesn’t fit his game AT ALL. He’s just too hot to fade right now. My model has him at 19th, and that’s only because he struggles with bogey avoidance, but he doesn’t make a lot of big numbers. If I switch bogey avoidance, to double bogey (or worse) avoidance, Luke climbs into my top ten. Players are going to make bogeys this week, it’s the players that can avoid the big numbers, and offset it with enough birdies, that will be in great shape come Sunday.

Jimmy Walker: DK $8200/FD $9400 

While he didn’t crack my top ten in the custom stat model, Jimmy came in 11th. Walker seems to have found his game over the last few months after battling Lyme Disease for the last year. He finished 20th at the Masters in his last time out, which is a correlating course here, and finished T13 here last year. Walker won this event in 2016 holding of Jordan Spieth and Billy Horschel down the stretch. Jimmy is sneaky long, 27th in driving distance in the model and 68th overall on tour this year. He is also 7th in Birdies or Better gained.

Jimmy is priced next to Ryan Palmer on both sites, and I assume Palmer will garner a ton of ownership, holding Jimmy’s below 10%. And while Palmer has great course history here, so does Walker and he’s been playing much better on top of that. I’ll be doubling down on my Walker ownership and I think he’s cash viable as well.

GPP Punt Plays: 

Martin Laird: DK $8000/FD $9300

Jaime Lovemark: DK $7700/ FD $10000 (maybe too expensive on FD)

Harris English: DK $7400/FD $8400

Abraham Ancer: DK $6900/FD $8300

Hudson Swafford: DK $6800/FD $8200

Harold Varner III: DK $6600/FD $7200

DFS Golf: Trending Down – Valero Texas Open

In this section we will look at a few golfers that are trending downwards, whether that’s statistically, due to course history, other narratives, or simply their price outweighs their value. Could these guys be on a winning GPP lineup? Absolutely, but this article is for the average player who is only playing a few lineups each week and isn’t massive multi entering 150 line ups. I’ll be personally be fading all three of these players in all formats.

Ryan Palmer: DK $8400/FD $9500 

As I always write here, you’ve got to make a stand somewhere. Palmer has great course history, he models out well, and putts better on bermuda than other surface. He’s also a Texas native. I just can’t get on board with a guy who is going to push 30% ownership and shot a 78 in his round last Sunday. He’s missed 6 of his last 11 cuts, including at the Shell, another Texas tournament that he has a long history of success at. An area that Ryan struggles with which may end up being the key to his downfall this week is that he ranks 99th in double bogey avoidance. As I stated, you have to avoid big numbers here and I’m going to bet on Palmer continuing his poor play this year and missing the cut this week. I love the guy, he helped me win a big GPP once upon a time, but at his ownership level this week, I’ll be a complete fade.

Matt Kuchar: DK $11400/FD $12100

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This is quickly turning into a list of my favorite golfers. Kuch is one heck of a player, and he will most likely finish in the top 20 this week, and if thats what you are looking for with your highest priced golfer, go for it. He just doesn’t really have any win equity here, as he’s not long enough. He hasn’t missed a cut here in forever and if he was priced in the 8K range he would be a must play, but I can’t play 11k plus for a T40, especially in a GPP. I’m interested to see his ownership, it may be low, but regardless you cannot pay this price for Kuch this week.

Kevin Chappell: DK $9300/FD $10500

Two missed cuts, and a WD in Kevin’s last three events. Yes, he won here last here, and has some good course history, but let’s be honest he was in a MUCH different place, coming off a 7th place finish at the Masters and riding a wave of momentum into a course that fits his skill set. Because this course fits him he could contend, but I’ll bank on him struggling again, especially since I think his back injury is worse than he’s letting on. He looked uncomfortable last week at the RBC Heritage over the ball. Chappell has been putting the ball better, but his Tee to Green game has been suspect. He pops in my model, but that doesn’t really include his rounds at the Masters (who don’t give data out) and the Match Play (also no data) where he played poorly. I’ll be letting other people chase last year’s success.

It’s early in the week and ownership trends haven’t really started to take shape yet, but I expect Ryan Palmer and Luke List to be the two highest owned players. Cash games are a bit tricky with the pricing this week, so check my twitter for more thoughts as the week goes on @dfsupnorth

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Best of luck in your DFS golf contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across all your favorite sports.