Nylon Calculus: How often do we see ‘Vintage Dwyane Wade’?
By Ian Levy
After getting run off the court in Game 1, the Miami Heat desperately needed to respond strongly in Game 2 or risk seeing their chances for a first-round upset of the Philadelphia 76ers ebb away. Luckily, ‘Vintage Dwyane Wade’ was up for the challenge.
Wade, who rejoined the team at the trade deadline, scored 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting, adding 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals. By Game Score, a box-score derived measure of a player’s impact in a single game, it was Wade’s best performance of the season. With a mark of 23.6, it was also just the fifth time in his 69 games this season Wade’s Game Score surpassed 20.0
By contrast, in 2008-09, perhaps his best individual season, Wade had Game Score high of 49.0 and surpassed 20.0 in 55 of his 86 games (64 percent). His peaks might not be as high but Wade is still clearly capable of summoning runs of his former brilliance, just not nearly as often. The graph below, created by Todd Whitehead, shows just how often ‘Vintage Wade’ has been showing up in each season of his career.
Game Score is a cumulative metric so his declining scores are driven by his declining minute totals, in addition to a drop in his per minute production. Wade had a Game Score over 20 in 7.2 percent of his games this season. Last year, he hit that mark in 17 percent of his games. His last season in Miami, he made it in 18 percent of his games.
Next: Playoff implications of the full-strength standings
Given his pace this year, and the assumption of a perfectly (and unrealistically) smooth distribution, we wouldn’t expect to see ‘Vintage Wade’ again for roughly 14 games. He may have saved the Heat in Game 2, but unless Miami can figure out another solution for the 76ers youthful exuberance we probably won’t see this Wade again in the playoffs.