MLB DFS Standouts: April 20th
Tonight’s MLB DFS slate features 15 games, with New York (5.3), Milwaukee (5.1), St. Louis (5.1), Colorado (5.1), and Chicago (5), holding the best projected team totals. With expensive pitchers like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Noah Syndergaard available, finding ways to save salary will be crucial on tonight’s slate. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS standouts from the perspective of batted ball data, line movement, batter splits, and stolen base upside.
MLB DFS Standouts: Batted Balls Stats
Marcell Ozuna – DK $4300 , FD $3900
St. Louis will host the Cincinnati Reds, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna is an intriguing option given his recent batted ball stats. In the last 15 days, his distance is up 10 feet, his exit velocity is up 2 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 12%, over his yearly average. Ozuna is averaging .053 home runs per at bat, and may be able to add to that tonight.
Jason Kipnis – DK $3800 , FD $3000
If you can forgive Jason Kipnis’ recent performances, he’s a very interesting play given his production vs. his batted ball stats. Kipnis is averaging an abysmal .167, with only 11 hits and 4 RBI’s. While the production would normally turn us away, his recent batted ball stats tell a different tale. In the last 15 days, his distance is up 6 feet, his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 9%, over his yearly average. The positive regression is coming eventually, and it could be tonight.
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Jose Martinez – DK $3700 , FD $3800
Jose Martinez and the Cardinals will face off against the lefty, Brandon Finnegan. Martinez is much better against lefties, with a .505 wOBA split (.160 better than when facing a righty) and a .444 ISO split (.269 better than when facing a righty). These are some of the more drastic splits on the slate, and if Martinez is batting in the top five, he should be considered.
Dexter Fowler – DK $4000, FD $3100 – Matt Carpenter – DK $3900, FD $3300
St. Louis opened as a -185 home favorite against the Reds tonight, but they have drawn some betting attention and have moved to -203 favorite, or better, in most shops. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also seen a bit of action on the over. It opened at 8 runs, and now currently sits at 8.5 runs. Finnegan struggled in his only start this year (against these same Cardinals) allowing five earned runs in 4.1 innings, including two homers.
Sean Newcomb – DK $7400, FD $6800
Sean Newcomb will get the start for the Braves tonight, in a home matchup against the Mets. Newcomb has pitched well in his last two outings and could continue that tonight. The Mets opened as a -160 favorite, but are now down to only a -137 favorite. In addition to the move on Atlanta, the total has also dropped. The total opened at 8 runs and it now sits at 7.5 runs.
Stolen Base Upside
Billy Hamilton – DK $3200, FD $3200
One of the best base runners in all of baseball, Billy Hamilton, will draw an appealing matchup against Michael Wacha. Wacha allowed 14 stolen bases last year, 29th most in the league and allowed 82% of attempts to be successful. If Billy Hamilton is batting in the leadoff spot tonight, he’ll be a viable option on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests! Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!