Cleveland needs to play it safe with the No. 1 pick
Cleveland can’t afford a bust with the No. 1 pick. Josh Allen is just too big a risk.
It’s understandable that the Cleveland Browns want to draft a transcendent star with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. The unfortunate truth is the Browns need to do everything they can to make sure the quarterback they select doesn’t turn out to be a colossal bust.
Various reports claim the Browns have narrowed the candidates for the first overall selection to two signal callers. Wyoming gunslinger Josh Allen and USC quarterback Sam Darnold are both in contention for the pick. For what it’s worth, Browns coach Hue Jackson insists the team’s braintrust hasn’t made a final decision yet.
At the moment, most NFL executives think the Browns are leaning towards taking Allen. This would be a classic Browns decision. The team has always been desperate to land a star who can become one of the game’s true greats. In fairness, Allen’s physical tools do give him that potential.
Unfortunately, his accuracy issues and lack of experience playing against big time opponents also give him a significant chance to become the next Tim Couch. Allen may have the widest variance of any prospect in the draft. It’s easy to fall in love with his flashes of brilliance, but doing so requires you to ignore significant signs of mediocrity.
Sam Darnold is almost the complete opposite of Allen as a prospect. His tape features numerous opportunities to watch him go up against big time defenses. That means his game has been picked apart by every scout on the planet.
The sheer volume of minor criticism about Arnold’s game has caused Cleveland to second guess picking him number one. That’s a massive potential mistake for a franchise that can’t afford one. When you watch Darnold it’s hard to see him failing in the NFL. His floor is becoming a league average starter. Allen’s floor is spinning the ball in Canada before too long.
Yes, Allen might have more star potential, but it’s not as if Darnold isn’t blessed with significant physical tools as well. There’s a scenario out there where Allen can become the best signal caller in the NFL, but the probability of that happening is just too low.
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Conversely, Darnold’s ceiling might top out at being a top 10 player at his position. His chances of fulfilling that potential are so much higher than Allen’s. That’s why he has to be the choice for the Browns at number one.