DraftKings NBA Picks May 3: Will LeBron dominate again?

Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. Tonight we have Game 2 between Toronto and Cleveland, and Game 2 between Philly and Boston. Will the Game 1 trends hold true?

Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Terry Rozier ($7,700): Rozier put up his second straight game of more than 50 DraftKings points against Philly in Game 1. Compared to those priced higher than him, Rozier dominated the position by a large margin. Can he do it again? It’s certainly worth finding out as the third highest priced PG on here (fourth if you count LeBron).

Honorable Mention:

Ben Simmons ($9,400): Simmons was hounded by the Celtics in Game 1, and came in way under value due to the high number of turnovers and single digit rebound for the first time since Game 2 vs. Miami. However, Simmons turned in his highest scoring night since Game 3 against the Heat. If he can avoid turnovers, Simmons could get back to value tonight.

Kyle Lowry ($7,800): Lowry was 0.25 DraftKings points shy of his sixth straight game of more than 40 DraftKings points in Game 1. Lowry came in way above his season average against Cleveland in Game 1 like I expected. Toronto showed themselves that they could hang around in this series, but how much did that Game 1 loss at home sting? Are we going to see a letdown tonight?

Dark Horses:

Fred VanVleet ($3,900): It was VanVleet who was the most played guard of the bench, not Delon Wright. I was afraid this would be the trend, so I avoided this situation in Game 1. Now that we kind of know who this is going to go, I’m all for using VanVleet tonight.

Shane Larkin ($3,100): Larkin has quietly hit value in each of the last two games, which is kind of surprising with Smart back. However, this is a volatile situation. Larkin played his most minutes of the playoffs in Game 1 against Philly though, but that could have had something to do with the game becoming lopsided late.

My pick: Rozier(PG), VanVleet(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400): DeRozan is about as inconsistent as they come. However, he came up big in Game 1 with 45.25 DraftKings points. That was way above his average against Cleveland this year. That marked DeRozan’s fourth game of more than 40 DraftKings points in the last six. Three of those topped 45.

Honorable Mention:

Marcus Smart ($5,700): Jaylen Brown is saying he will play, but the team has him listed as doubtful. The bad news is that this game tips off 2.5 hours after lineup lock, so we may not have official word. That means Larkin and Smart are both huge risks. However, Smart is such a good defender that he should retain most of his value. He is worth playing regardless of the status of Brown.

J.J. Redick ($5,400): After the horrid Game 5 in Miami, Redick has righted the ship again, racking up at least 5x value in each of the three games since. He has not been under 28 DraftKings points in that span, which makes Redick a great mid-level play with adequate upside.

Dark Horse:

J.R. Smith ($4,500): Smith is pretty much all or nothing in the playoffs. He is still running with the starters for now, but he is pretty much only a scorer. There is risk here, but Smith is a nice GPP target because he is capable of going way above value tonight. Or he could get you 3x. That said, Smith was huge with 32 DraftKings points in Game 1. I’m willing to ride him again because of the volume of minutes.

My pick: Smith(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

LeBron James ($12,100): LeBron was huge in Game 7, putting up over 70 DraftKings points for the third time in the Indiana series. His upside is higher than anyone else’s, but LeBron was well under value in the regular season against the Raptors. That said, he showed up for Game 1, racking up 69.75 DraftKings points in yet another dominating performance. The King is about as money as they come when playoff time arrives.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($6,700): Tatum has three straight games of more than 33 DraftKings points. He is growing into a force in this Boston offense. In fact, Tatum led the Celtics in minutes in Game 1. There is quite a bit of potential for Tatum tonight. Does he finally have the consistency that has eluded him most of the year?

Dark Horses:

Kyle Korver ($4,300): Korver rebounded in a big way in Game 1, racking up 25.5 DraftKings points in 38 minutes. The Cavs rode the veterans in the opener with the likes of Korver, Hill, and Smith seeing the bulk of the minutes. There is good potential for Korver again tonight.

C.J. Miles ($3,400): Miles was a big scorer off the bench in the Washington series and in Game 1, but since Miles wont play more than half the game, he is always a risk and has very little upside. Still, there are very few viable options for under $5,000. Miles could come in handy if you need to go really cheap.

My pick: James(SF), Tatum(PF), Korver(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Al Horford ($7,300): Horford has at least 40 DraftKings points in each of the last two games and three of the last four. It has been vintage Horford lately. He is hitting a large percentage of his shorts, rebounding, and making some plays with the ball in his hands as well. Philly had no answer for Horford in Game 1. That could happen again tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Dario Saric ($6,500): Saric finished Game 1 with his third straight game under 30 DraftKings points, but there were some encouraging sings. Saric had his best percentage since Game 1 against Miami. Even though Saric has only hit one three pointer in 13 attempts over the last three games, there is potential because of his strong work on the boards and good passing. If he gets a couple of those threes to fall, Saric will have no trouble hitting value.

Kevin Love ($6,000): It seems ridiculous to not mention Love at this price, especially considering his 38.8 DraftKings points per game average against Toronto this year. Love had an awful series against Indiana, and was equally awful in Game 1. Love is just 15-56 (26.8%) from the floor over the last five games. Can he bust out of it tonight?

Dark Horse:

Marcus Morris ($4,700): Morris sees more consistent minutes than Ersan Ilyasova, but to me the two are practically interchangeable tonight. I prefer Morris in Boston’s offense because Ilyasova has no guarantees with Embiid back. If you need to go cheap, either is a decent option.

My pick: N/A

Center

Best Bet:

Joel Embiid ($9,300): Embiid was a monster in the Game 1 loss, putting up 57.75 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. The Sixers got Embiid back to full health by using caution earlier in the season. They are reaping the rewards now. Ride Embiid with confidence tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,900): Valanciunas ate Cleveland alive in Game 1, racking up 52.25 DraftKings points in that game. Kevin Love was no match for him inside, and Thompson wasn’t much better. Expect another very strong game from Jonas tonight.

Dark Horses:

Tristan Thompson ($5,200): The Cavs finally game Thompson a start in Game 7, and he came up huge against the Pacers. Tristan went for 33 DraftKings points in the series clincher. Even though Thompson didn’t start in Game 1, he still picked up 30.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. The Cavs need his size in there, so Thompson should see good run throughout the series.

Aron Baynes ($3,600): Baynes is back in the starting lineup with the monster Embiid in the middle. He had moderate success in Game 1. The fact that Baynes is getting starter’s minutes gives him some potential, but I wonder how long it will be before the Celtics throw Greg Monroe at Embiid to see if he can stop him. That makes Baynes a bigger risk than usual.

My pick: Valanciunas(C), Baynes(UTIL)

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