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MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: May 18th

By Matt McGarvey

ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 7: Max Kepler #26 of the Minnesota Twins bats in a run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium on May 7, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 7: Max Kepler #26 of the Minnesota Twins bats in a run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium on May 7, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS Picks
ST. LOUIS, MO – MAY 7: Max Kepler #26 of the Minnesota Twins bats in a run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium on May 7, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) MLB DFS Picks /

MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: May 18th

Tonight’s slate features 15 games, with Boston (5.4), Atlanta (5.3), Chicago (5.1), New York (5.1), and Toronto (5), holding the best projected team totals. Given all of the weather concerns tonight, information presented below may change drastically. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, and stolen base upside.

Max Kepler:

While Max Kepler won’t draw the most enticing matchup against a lefty, but he has been hitting the ball very well of late. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 23 feet, his exit velocity is up 4 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 12%. He hasn’t produced much in his recent outings, but his batted ball stats may indicate positive regression. He’s also only $3300 on DraftKings, $500 cheaper than he was in early May.

Anytime Oakland faces a right-handed pitcher, Matt Olson should always be considered. Olson is much more effective against righties, with a .427 wOBA split (.143 more than when facing a lefty) and a .369 ISO split (.213 better than when facing a lefty). Olson has been crushing the ball of late and could continue to do so in this matchup.

Matthew Joyce – DK $3200, FD $2800

Matthew Joyce is another Oakland player that benefits when the team faces a righty. Joyce and the A’s, will take on right-handed pitcher Marco Estrada. Like Olson, Joyce is much better against righties, with a .370 wOBA split (.137 better than when facing a lefty) and a .252 ISO split (.168 better than when facing a lefty). In the last 15 days, Estrada has allowed an opponent batted ball distance of 248 feet (2nd most on the slate) and a fly ball percentage of 57% (highest on the slate).

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Ender Inciarte – DK $4700, FD $3500

Ender Inciarte will have an increased opportunity to steal a bag tonight, as he’ll face off against righty, Dan Straily. It’s not the most ideal matchup, but Straily did allow 10 stolen bases last year, and has allowed 1 stolen base in his 13 innings pitched, this season. Inciarte has stolen 18 bases this year and could add to his total tonight.

Jarrod Dyson – DK $2800, FD $2300

Jarrod Dyson will have a tough matchup at the plate against Jacob deGrom, but if he gets on base, he could have an increased chance to steal a base. deGrom allowed 18 stolen bases last year (10th most) and has allowed 4 stolen bases over his 44.1 innings pitched this season. Dyson has stolen six bases over the course of his 88 at bats, so if he draws the start, he could offer some hidden stolen base upside.

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

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