MLB FanDuel Lineup and Picks for Monday, May 21
Marlins at Mets
Marlins Probable Starter – Elieser Hernandez, RHP
2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 9.1 strikeout rate
Since Hernandez only has eight innings, I’m not drastically concerned about the splits for the Mets. I have no interest in Hernandez even though he is dirt cheap because there’s just no upside to chase. I want the Mets that are good against righty pitching tonight and that means a player like Brandon Nimmo is near the top of the wOBA list. Wilmer Flores is typically only in play against a lefty pitcher but he’s been hitting righties really well too. Devin Mesoraco and Asdrubal Cabrera round out the Mets I’d really want for tonight.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera
Secondary Options – Devin Mesoraco, Asdrubal Cabrera, Amed Rosario
Mets Probable Starter – Jason Vargas, LHP
13.86 ERA, 2.68 WHIP and 13.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .333 average, .499 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .465 average, .555 wOBA, 38.2 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard contact rate
For one of the very few times this season, I want some Marlins bats in my lineup. That’s how bad Vargas has been and there’s no metric that points to him being close to average so far. The two that standout are the best two in Miami which are Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto. This also could be a spot for Martin Prado to get right since he’s been awful since returning from injury. You could even take a shot at Derek Dietrich or Lewis Brinson, although that seems like a stretch. If the Marlins had a better offense, they would be on a full stack alert.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour
Secondary Options – Martin Prado, Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich
Home Run Pick – J.T. Realmuto
Diamondbacks at Brewers
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Grienke, RHP
3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 26.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .250 average, .319 wOBA, 33.8 fly ball rate and 43.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .215 average, .260 wOBA, 34.9 fly ball rate and 43.0 hard contact rate
I just can’t see paying $9,200 for Grienke even on a poor pitching slate. He’s gone over 40 FanDuel points just twice in nine starts and he just saw this Brewers team his last time out. The results were fine for real life but he only scored 34 points. That one was at home and now Grienke shifts to Miller Park. Maybe I miss out on a vintage Grienke start but I’m not betting on it. I’d stick with the lefties for Milwaukee. Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw are the primary targets but two against the grain plays could come from Ji-Man Choi and Lorenzo Cain.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Travis Shaw
Secondary Options – Christian Yelich, Ji-Man Choi, Lorenzo Cain
Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP
3.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 16.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .193 average, .281 wOBA, 46.9 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .247 average, .375 wOBA, 46.2 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard contact rate
Anderson will be returning off the disabled list tonight from a bout of food poisoning but he’s not interesting to me tonight. Even though the Arizona offense isn’t that good this year, Anderson doesn’t appear to carry enough upside to warrant serious consideration. Since the Arizona offense has had its share of struggles, I’m limiting my exposure to likely just four players: Daniel Descalso, David Peralta, Jake Lamb and Paul Goldschmidt. They all have their flaws and my favorite play of the bunch might be Jake Lamb. He’s always hit well against righties and is in a great hitters park tonight.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jake Lamb, David Peralta
Secondary Options – Daniel Descalso, Paul Goldschmidt
Home Run Pick – Jake Lamb