FanDuel Picks and Lineup for Tuesday, May 22
Red Sox at Rays
Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP
2.29 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 34.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .235 average, .258 wOBA, 26.3 fly ball rate and 21.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .179 average, .259 wOBA, 43.4 fly ball rate and 27.6 hard contact rate
There’s a ton more to get to so let’s make this easy – Sale is the second best pitcher on this slate. Tampa hasn’t been too poor against lefties this year but there’s not a single bat that interests me. As good as Sale is, I’m likely going to find the extra $300 for the best pitcher on the slate, which we’ll get to later.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – None
Rays Probable Starter – Jake Faria, RHP
5.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .206 average, .329 wOBA, 42.3 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .240 average, .311 wOBA, 45.7 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard contact rate
Boston was off yesterday but I’m pretty sure both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez still hit a home run each. Those two are clicking right now and even though I think Faria is a much better pitcher than some of his metrics indicate, this isn’t the matchup that you want to find that out. He’s giving up too many fly balls and too much hard contact not matter that he’s pitching in a pitcher’s park. You can play a full Red Sox stack if you wanted to although it’s obviously expensive.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez
Secondary Options – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts
Home Run Pick – Mookie “Free Square” Betts
Marlins at Mets
Marlins Probable Starter – Caleb Smith, LHP
4.22 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 31.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .286 average, .322 wOBA, 32.4 fly ball rate and 41.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .165 average, .266 wOBA, 51.6 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard contact rate
We’re still early in the breakdown of the slate, but Smith might be my third favorite pitcher of the entire night. His strikeout rate is through the roof and the Mets have the second highest strikeout percentage in baseball to southpaws. They also still rank dead last in average, OPS, ISO and wOBA as well. Smith has hid the skids a little bit his past couple starts but this is a spot where he can dominate. You could throw a dart at Devin Mesoraco or Asdrubal Cabrera but I’ll be siding with Smith in this one.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Devin Mesoraco, Amed Rosario
Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP
5.92 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .254 average, .351 wOBA, 38.1 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .283 average, .338 wOBA, 33.8 fly ball rate and 21.9 hard contact rate
I might still be a little annoyed that the Marlins came up so small against Jason Vargas last night, but I just don’t like rostering Marlins. J.T. Realmuto is an awesome offensive player but I wish Miami would just get on with trading him so I can play him with a little more confidence. Realmuto and Justin Bour are about the only ones I’d ever want to play, especially on this size of a slate.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto
Secondary Options -Justin Bour($3,800 seems way too high)
Home Run Pick – Miguel Rojas