5 best fits for John Carlson in NHL free agency
While a return to Washington is still a very real possibility, let’s explore the 5 best fits for John Carlson should he decide to test free agency.
John Tavares may be grabbing all the headlines, but the Washington Capitals’ John Carlson will have plenty of suitors lining up at his door. General managers in win-now mode will be falling over themselves for a chance to sign the right-handed quarterback in his prime.
Carlson’s .829 PPG in 2017-2018 was the highest of his career and officially cemented his status as one of hockey’s premier defensemen. He led all blue liners in points, notching over half of his markers at even strength. His year ended with a plus/minus of 0 despite routinely matching up against stiff competition and beginning play with nearly as many defensive zone starts as offensive zone starts. In comparison, Erik Karlsson started play in the offensive zone 55.1 percent of the time and Brent Burns 61.5 percent of the time, yet they finished the year minus-25 and minus-16, respectively. Washington’s lack of depth on the left side also forced him to play all year with a rotating carousel of less than desirable defensive partners that included Brooks Orpik, Michal Kempny and rookie Christian Djoos.
This year marks his first trip to a Stanley Cup final. He’s already a two-time Calder Cup champion, winning in consecutive years in 2009 and 2010. A World Junior championship also adorns his trophy cabinet, after potting the overtime winner in the championship game in 2010. John Carlson is a quarterback who excels in high-leverage situations. If he was underrated before this year, he certainly can’t be now and will command top dollar on an open market.
Here are the 5 best fits for John Carlson in NHL free agency.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs
John Carlson is the one thing the Maple Leafs are severely lacking. At every turn this season, the Leafs defense was exposed, forcing them to rely too heavily on their offense. This was no more apparent than Game 7 against the Bruins. An injury to Morgan Rielly forced Mike Babcock to deploy Jake Gardiner in tough assignments, and it was clear from the outset that he was overmatched. Gardiner finished the night as a minus-5 and took the blame for the loss.
The lack of a big right-handed shot on the blue line was evident all year. Prospect Timothy Liljegren is not quite ready for NHL action, according to his AHL teammates. His strength still leaves something to be desired and it’s unclear at this point when he might be playing effective minutes for the big club. Leafs rookie Travis Dermott (who is left-handed) was experimented with on Gardiner’s right side but Babcock was adamant all year about what the team needed. The addition of Carlson would allow Toronto to cushion Gardiner’s minutes and place him in a more specialized role. Slotting him on a third pairing with power play minutes would shield his defensive deficiencies and allow him to thrive in a more offensive capacity without hurting the Leafs in their own end.
Newly appointed general manager Kyle Dubas has been thrust into the big job on a team that’s ready to win. He could cement his legacy as early as July 1 with a Carlson signing and address his biggest organizational need without giving anything up. With around $30 million in cap space to start the summer, signing Carlson wouldn’t be an issue. Where it could get tricky is next summer. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Kasperi Kapanen will all need raises. With Gardiner’s salary off the books in 2019 and a potential buyout of Nathan Horton, Dubas should be able to make it work without forcing himself in to a corner. With plenty of depth on the right wing, William Nylander could also make interesting trade bait to protect themselves from cap trouble. It’s not as if their offense would crumble without him.
Convincing Carlson to uproot his family out of the States would be challenging. Ryan Miller was the last significant American UFA to come north of the border. But Toronto is a world-class city with a hockey team on the cusp of glory. He may be the last piece of the puzzle for a franchise that stands to win for years.
2. New Jersey Devils
Will he go home? John Carlson moved to Colonia, New Jersey, with his family when he was 5. Growing up he played for the New Jersey Rockets. His favorite player was also Scott Stevens and his favorite team was the Devils.
GM Ray Shero has $20 million to play with and only depth players to consider re-signing. With Vatanen and Severson already on the point as right-handed defensemen, a Carlson signing could signal a big shift. Or it could mean plenty of depth and assets that other teams covet.
New Jersey already ran a top-10 powerplay in the NHL this year, and it would become even more deadly with Carlson. Cory Schneider rebounded from a down season to post a sparkling 0.950 save percentage against the Lightning in the playoffs. He should be much better next season and their offense should be sustainable after posting a shooting percentage on par with the League this year. John Carlson’s offensive instincts and Hischier’s continued development should also improve this area of their game.
3. Philadelphia Flyers
With around $20 million to play with this summer, Ron Hextall should be very busy. The team is coming off a first-round exit and could use another star defenseman to aid their mediocre goaltending situation. Petr Mrazek and Michael Neuvirth will have to continue holding down the fort until Carter Hart is ready for NHL minutes. Or, Hextall could get creative and go after Pekka Rinne, who may have played his last game with the Predators. Carlson’s addition could make Philippe Myers expendable, and we all know how much David Poile covets defensive prospects.
A Gostisbehere/Carlson pairing would easily be one of the league’s best blue line combinations. Together they account for 2 of the league’s top four scoring defensemen this year. With their depth at center, it’s safe to say Jori Lehtera’s $4.7 million will be off the books in 2019-2020 and provide even more cap space to re-sign Simmonds and keep this core together.
This could be a power summer for the Flyers, and I would expect Hextall to make a play for John Carlson.
4. New York Rangers
Another team looking to go young, the Rangers could use a defenseman like Carlson to anchor their blueline as they move forward with new coach David Quinn. General manager Jeff Gorton has five picks in the first two rounds of this summer’s draft. The team already has good young forwards and a prospect pool centered around Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil. The team also isn’t short on goaltending prospects to one day usurp Lundqvist when he’s too old to be effective.
This could be a fast rebuild and John Carlson on a max deal would be around to play effective years throughout the length of the deal. When pressed about his plans over the next few months, Gorton had this to say:
"“The league changes quickly, players become available. For us to sit here and say we’re going to have twenty 18-year-old players on our team is unrealistic. So, we will look at every scenario.“I would say, in general, if we’re going out getting players, it’s going to have an impact on us going forward. It’s not going to be a one-year thing.”"
At just 28 years old, John Carlson checks all the boxes for the Rangers. He isn’t a 35 year old veteran with a couple years left in him. This is a rare opportunity for a team in transition to lock down a leader on the backend during his best years. His penchant for big game heroics proves that the big lights of New York City will not hinder his performance. With projected cap space of almost $30 million, the Rangers should be able to fit him in without having to get too creative.
5. Buffalo Sabres
A team in rebuild-mode may not immediately seem like the best fit for an all-star defenseman. Carlson is about to sign a “retirement” contract, however — the team doesn’t have to be good right now. What really matters is the future outlook for winning.
The Sabres are about to draft Rasmus Dahlin, one of the best defensive prospects in years. He’s drawn comparisons to everyone from Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman and even Niklas Lidstrom. He’s the type of prospect who (if he develops as predicted) can help turn a franchise’s fortunes around. Think of teams like Pittsburgh, Washington and Chicago. Cities that failed year after year and were constantly called in to question before landing building blocks in the draft.
Carlson’s addition to a roster that will include Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Ristolainen could turn them in to a legitimate playoff contender in as little as a few years. Some pundits believe Carlson is looking at a raise to $7 million per year. PK Subban earns an average of $9 million and is an accurate comparable. As a man with a family who recently welcomed a second child, it’s likely safe to say that he’ll be seeking the longterm security of a (max) seven-year deal. With that in mind (and a healthy cap raise), let’s say for argument’s sake that he commands $8 million per.
Buffalo is in a great cap situation to take on this kind of money. They have only a couple of restricted free agents of consequence who will command marginal pay increases this summer. In 2019-2020, they are also rid of Jason Pominville’s albatross $5.6 million, Beaulieu’s $2.4 million and Moulson’s $3.975 million. With Pegula money behind him, GM Jason Botterill should be making a strong play for Carlson who would only be 35 by the time a max deal is expired.
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