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Nylon Calculus: The playoff value of LeBron James

By Scott LaForest

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 11: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics on February 11, 2018 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 11: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics on February 11, 2018 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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LeBron James has turned in another masterful playoff run. Through Game 1 of the NBA Finals, LeBron is averaging 34.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game, shooting 54.6 percent from the field 35.0 percent on 3-pointers.

We should be used to the incredible individual numbers of LeBron at this point, but the fact that he’s having arguably his best playoff run ever in his 15th season, after leading the league in minutes played, and in his eight straight Finals appearance just makes it all the more impressive.

To get a grasp of just how incredible he’s been this year, we can use Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). Both of these stats are calculated off the box score and provide a good estimate of the overall value of a player. Box Plus-Minus is a per 100 possessions estimate of a player’s net impact, while VORP is an aggregate version that includes total minutes played.

The table below shows the best players in terms of BPM that have made the Conference Finals in their respective years (Box Plus-Minus is only available going back to 1973-74). Data for the following charts and graphs were taken from Basketball-Reference.com

As the chart and graph show LeBron in the 2017-18 playoffs is one of the most valuable players in history. LeBron has the highest BPM and third-highest VORP,  behind only Tim Duncan from 2002-03 and himself from 2011-12.  In terms of box score statistics, we’re looking at one of the most impressive playoff performances of the 3-point era.

Next: Quantifying defensive versatility in the playoffs

Not only is LeBron putting in one of the best playoff runs of all time he is by far the best player in terms of VORP and BPM for his career. The chart below shows VORP and BPM for the top 25 players in the 3-point era.

He might not have the same number of championships as Michael Jordan or Tim Duncan, but his individual value in the playoffs has been unmatched.

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