MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: June 5th
MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: June 5th
Tonight’s slate features 14 games, with Boston (5.6), Oakland (5.6), New York (5.5), and Texas (5), holding the best projected team totals. With high-priced pitchers like Max Scherzer, and Corey Kluber available, finding value will be critical for success on tonight’s slate. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.
Batted Ball Data
Kendrys Morales – DK $3300, FD $2300
Toronto first baseman, Kendrys Morales is extremely underpriced on FanDuel tonight at only $2300. He’s been hitting the ball very well of late, but has yet to see a price increase. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 16 feet, his exit velocity is up 5 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 12%. His recent fantasy production should probably be greater than it’s been given these numbers, so positive regression should be expected. In addition to the batted ball stats, Morales will have an advantageous matchup, against a lefty, C.C. Sabathia.
Batter Splits
Jurickson Profar – DK $3500, FD $3300
Switch hitter, Jurickson Profar, will face off against the lefty, Sean Manaea. Profar is significantly better against left-handed pitching, with a .441 wOBA split (.171 better than when facing a righty) and a .333 ISO split (.215 better than when facing a righty). The game total has risen a half of a run since opening, and Profar could be a beneficiary.
Justin Bour – DK $3200, FD $2900
Justin Bour will be an interesting contrarian play tonight, as he has a tough matchup against Carlos Martinez, but has crushed right-handed pitching this season. He currently holds a .411 wOBA split vs. righties (.143 better than when facing a lefty) and a .274 ISO split vs. righties (.232 better than when facing a lefty). It should be noted that this game has seen significant line movement since opening. St. Louis opened as a -230 favorite, but have fallen to their current price, at -177.
MLB DFS Picks – Line Movement
Toronto Batters
Toronto will play host to the visiting New York Yankees, in a game in which the Yankees opened as -170 favorites. The line has since moved, to have New York as just -146 favorites. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also risen.
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The game total opened at 9.5 runs, and is now up a half of a run, to 10 total runs. Given the reverse line movement and the change in the game total, Toronto batters could be an interesting contrarian stack tonight. C.C. has struggled in his most recent starts, giving up an average of four earned runs, over his last four starts.
Stolen Base Upside
Cesar Hernandez – DK $4400, $2900
The top base stealers don’t have any standout matchups, but if we dig a bit deeper, one base runner to consider would be Cesar Hernandez. Hernandez is currently tied for 12th for stolen bases, with 10. He will face righty, Kyle Hendricks tonight, which should boost his stolen base probability.
Last year, Hendricks allowed 13 stolen bases and this year, he’s allowed four. Hernandez will only be in play on FanDuel, as he cost a mere $2900, a massive discrepancy from his price on DraftKings tonight.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS Picks and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and anaylsis across all your favorite sports as we expand Fantasy CPR into your one stop shop for all things fantasy sports.