MLB DFS Bargain Bin- June 9th Late Afternoon and Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin

Before we get to today’s recommendations, we’ll look back at how Friday’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin play suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and of tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

Before we dive into today’s overview, a brief “mea culpa” on a recommendation that actually worked out okay despite an error on my part. In a moment of brain lock, I envisioned Braves starter Brandon McCarthy as still being on the team he was opposing Friday (and that he was on last season) — the Dodgers. That led to a suggestion of Dansby Swanson of the Braves based on a phantom matchup, but in a fortunate turn of events, the shortstop still came through with an RBI double.

Incidentally, only one of the originally suggested plays was not in their starting lineup Friday, that being the Mariners’ Ryon Healy. However, with that news coming out in the early afternoon, I recommended a pivot on Twitter (@jcblanco22) to the Astros’ Yuli Gurriel in a good matchup versus the Rangers’ Doug Fister, but he ultimately came up empty.

Without further ado, let’s see how all of yesterday’s picks ultimately graded out!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Maldonado has multi-hit tally, Lauer provides solid return–Martin Maldonado came into Friday’s matchup against Lance Lynn with a favorable track record against the right-hander. Accordingly, he came through with an RBI single in the second, followed by a two-bagger later in the game against reliever Ryan Pressly.

Meanwhile, Eric Lauer was able to continue the Marlins’ trend of struggling against left-handed hitters at home by racking up six strikeouts over five innings, but he bought himself some trouble by issuing a whopping seven walks, including one with the bases loaded in his final inning. However, relative to his minuscule price, he still provided a decent return that had the potential to be even better with such slightly improved location.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Villanueva, Gurriel come up empty– The story may have been different had original first base selection Ryon Healy been in action, but my suggested pivot of Yuli Gurriel didn’t deliver in a hitter’s environment at Globe Life Park against a struggling arm in Doug Fister.

Meanwhile, Villanueva couldn’t replicate his season-long success against southpaws in two at-bats against the Marlins’ Caleb Smith, and he was then pulled for pinch-hitter Cory Spangenberg.

Let’s now look at a player-by-player fantasy-point breakdown for each value play I’d suggested for Friday, June 8th:

MLB DFS Bargain Bin

Pitcher

Eric Lauer– SD at MIA- Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($6,000)/ DraftKings ($5,500)/ FantasyDraft ($11,100)

Final Line: 5.0 IN, 6 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 6K

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (9.3)/FanDuel (24)/DraftKings (9.45)/FantasyDraft (9.45)

Catcher

Martin Maldonado– LAA at MIN- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($2,100)/DraftKings ($2,900)/ FantasyDraft ($5,600)

Final Line: 2-for-4 (single, double), one RBI, one run

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (9.9)/FanDuel (15.7)/DraftKings (12.00)/FantasyDraft (12.00)

*Note: Alternate consideration Max Stassi was out of the lineup Friday*

First Base

*Note: Original selection Ryon Healy was out of the lineup Friday*

Yuli Gurriel– HOU at TEX- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,700)/DraftKings ($3,400)/FantasyDraft ($6,300)

Final Line: 0-for-4

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (0.0)/FanDuel (0)/DraftKings (0.00)/FantasyDraft (0.00)

Second Base

Asdrubal Cabrera– NYM vs. NYY- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,900)/DraftKings ($3,900)/FantasyDraft ($7,500)

Final Line: 1-for-4 (single)

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (2.9)/FanDuel (3)/DraftKings (3.00)/FantasyDraft (3.00)

Third Base

Christian Villanueva– SD at MIA- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($4,400)/FantasyDraft ($8,000)

Final Line: 0-for-2 (pulled for pinch hitter in 6th inning)

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (0.0)/FanDuel (0)/DraftKings (0.00)/FantasyDraft (0.00)

Shortstop

Dansby Swanson– ATL at LAD- Yahoo ($14)/FanDuel ($3,100)/DraftKings ($3,700)/FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Final Line: 1-for-4 (double), one run

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (6.0)/FanDuel (9.2)/DraftKings (7.00)/FantasyDraft (7.00)

Outfield

Curtis Granderson– TOR vs. BAL- Yahoo ($8)/FanDuel ($2,500)/DraftKings ($3,500)/FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Final Line: 1-for-3

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (2.1)/FanDuel (3)/DraftKings (3.00)/FantasyDraft (3.00)

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin

Welcome to the Saturday afternoon/evening MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide you with at least one selection that would be considered a “value play” relative to the top-priced players at each position for that particular slate.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note them as a “XYZ site-only special” underneath the main selection.
On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved on Wednesday evening’s MLB slate!:

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Pitcher

Danny Duffy, KC AT OAK- Yahoo ($31)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($4,800)/ FantasyDraft ($9,400)

Like many of the pitchers I’ll often recommend in this space, Duffy has at times tested the patience of those who’ve rostered him this season. The lefty looked like he might be settling down in late May with back-to-back quality starts to close out the month, but he was less steady against the Angels his last time out.

However, the matchup does line up for him on paper Saturday. The Athletics are dead last in wOBA (.224) against southpaws at home over the last month of play, and they’ve also struck out at a bloated 27.5 percent rate and generated an anemic .137 average versus lefties at their home park during that stretch.

Additionally, there’s been no better pitcher’s park in the majors this season than the Oakland Coliseum (.0710 runs and .0528 home runs per game, both the fewest per game in all of baseball). Duffy has more than enough strikeout upside, especially at his absurdly low prices (particularly on DK), to potentially provide an excellent return, especially considering the A’s also check in with the lowest home wOBA (.240) in the majors against either handedness over the last month of play.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Catcher

Kurt Suzuki– ATL at LAD- Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,600)/DraftKings ($3,500)/FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Suzuki is surprisingly just $1 away from minimum on Yahoo and priced to move everywhere else as well, putting him in play despite the matchup against a quality starter in Alex Wood. Suzuki has hit lefties well this season, as evidenced by his .388 wOBA, .263 ISO, 23.1 percent HR/FB rate and 39.4 percent hard contact rate against that handedness.

Wood has undoubtedly been a tough-luck pitcher at different points this season, but all eight home runs he’s allowed have come off righty bats, and notably, six of those have come at Dodger Stadium, which has helped lead to a .340 wOBA allowed to that handedness at home. In all, 12 of the 22 hits he’s allowed to right-handed hitters at home have gone for extra bases, making the 27.3 percent HR/FB rate and 37.5 percent hard contact rate he’s yielded to them in his home park unsurprising.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- First Base

Adrian Gonzalez– NYM vs. NYY- Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,200)/DraftKings ($3,200)/FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Gonzalez has unfortunately often looked like a shell of his former self this season, but he’s had just enough moments to corroborate he still has enough pop in his bat to generate some nice returns. One of those instances could well come in the second game of this weekend’s Subway Series, as Gonzalez draws a matchup against the vulnerable Domingo German, certainly one of the weak links of the Yankees rotation over the first two months-plus of the season.

Four of the six home runs German has allowed this season have come off lefty bats, and he’s allowed a .312 wOBA to the 39 left-handed hitters he’s faced outside of Yankee Stadium. He’s also yielded a robust 40.7 percent hard contact rate to lefty hitters on the road, meaning that the damage could get a lot worse if hitters continue to put the screws to the ball at that clip.

Gonzalez counters with all six of his homers this season off right-handed pitching, a 27.8 percent line-drive rate against that handedness at home, and a 41.5 percent hard-contact rate against righty arms overall. A .250 BABIP versus righty arms has helped cap his overall production, but as those previous numbers show, he’s certainly squaring up on the ball well enough to eventually start enjoying more success.

It’s also worth noting that there’s synergy in the pitch-split area as well, as German’s .386 wOBA when throwing the four-seam fastball could be trouble against the .332 wOBA that Gonzalez owns against the pitch.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Second Base

Eduardo Nunez– BOS vs. CWS- Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/DraftKings ($3,600)/FantasyDraft ($7,600)

Nunez gets first crack at returning southpaw Carlos Rodon, who’ll be making his season debut Saturday. The veteran infielder already has a homer and a pair of RBI against the lefty in six career encounters, while Rodon allowed a .334 wOBA (including 10 homers) and a 32.6 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters last season.

Nunez has admittedly struggled against southpaws over a modest sample thus far this season, but he posted a solid .327 wOBA and 30.4 percent hard contact rate versus lefties at Fenway over a larger sample in 2017. Given that it will be Rodon’s first start of the season, it’s also likely that Nunez gets at least a couple of at-bats against the White Sox bullpen, which has allowed an MLB-high .392 wOBA (including 15 extra-base hits) to right-handed hitters on the road over the last month of play.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Third Base

More from FanSided

Adrian Beltre– TEX vs. HOU- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/DraftKings ($3,600)/FantasyDraft ($7,600)

Beltre’s prices continue to be depressed across the industry relative to both past seasons and his overall upside. That makes him a particularly appealing tournament play in what will be perceived as a tough matchup against Astros starter Charlie Morton, which should drive his ownership down a certain amount.

Beltre has been able to solve Morton more often than not in past encounters, as he owns a .444 average with a double, a home run and two RBI in nine prior plate appearances against the right-hander. He also boasts a massive .405 wOBA, 26.8 percent line drive rate and 41.5 percent hard contact rate against righties at Globe Life Park, while Morton has gotten a bit fortunate against righty bats on the road with an unsustainable .194 BABIP when they’ve made contact against him.

Morton has also allowed a .339 wOBA on his four-seam fastball and .449 wOBA on his cutter, numbers that foreshadow trouble against Belre’s respective .357 and .473 figures against those pitches.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Shortstop

Yairo Munoz– STL at CIN- Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,500)/DraftKings ($3,900)/FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Munoz is the first of two Cardinals I’m recommending against the Reds’ Luis Castillo, who’s allowed a .342 wOBA, 25.0 percent HR/FB rate and 34.2 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters at Great American Ballpark. Munoz counters with a .320 average, .328 wOBA and elevated 31.6 percent line drive rate against righties on the road, as well as a 35.7 percent hard contact rate against that handedness overall.

Castillo was also hit hard in his first start of June against the Padres, while Munoz’s pricing on both Yahoo and FanDuel in particular afford you plenty of flexibility elsewhere.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Outfield

Marcell Ozuna– STL at CIN- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/DraftKings ($3,800)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Castillo’s issues against right-handed bats in his hitter-friendly home park were just discussed in Munoz’s entry, while Ozuna’s potent bat has finally started to heat up. The slugger is hitting .385 and sporting a .479 wOBA over his first 29 plate appearances of June, a stretch during which he’s also making hard contact at an impressive 58.3 percent-clip.

Ozuna has also posted a 46.2 percent hard contact rate against righties overall this season, so it’s little surprise he’s finally starting to parlay that into more extra-base hits. Moreover, it’s worth noting that he profiles very well against the sinker, a pitch that Castillo has allowed a .451 wOBA on in the 293 instances he’s utilized it this season. Ozuna owns a .349 wOBA and 25.0 percent HR/FB rate against the pitch, particularly appealing considering he’s taking his hacks in a park that has the sixth-highest home run rate in the majors (1.23).

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