Dynasty League Sleepers For 2018: Wide Receiver

Dynasty League Sleepers For 2018: WR

We’re at a very unique point in the constantly changing landscape of fantasy football dynasty leagues. Not even two seasons ago the industry was preaching the importance of backup running backs and waiver priority being baked into draft strategy. Fantasy owners found themselves trying to forecast which ball carriers were most likely to get hurt and which handcuffs were potential league winners (thanks again, DeAngelo Williams).

That short period of time was arguably the most frustrating era of the game yet, as so much of Sunday afternoon was spent saying Oh no…please get up!. This type of fear was also how Zero RB found its way into the mainstream, as people began to see the value of a consistently reliable receiver racking up points every week. This remains the case, but thankfully the injury train slowed down a bit.

Fantasy championships were won or lost with early round RB selection last year, but that doesn’t mean the pendulum should swing too far in one direction. Ignoring value at the receiver position is a mistake you don’t want to make based on panic and recency bias. This is especially true in dynasty leagues as the yearly turnover rates for pass-catchers is much lower than the guys in the backfield. Having a strong WR core in a dynasty format can make your life a lot easier. The weekly decisions aren’t as complicated, and you can spend more time hunting for the next breakout running back while guys like AB and Julio win you weeks.

On that note, let’s continue the descent into dynasty madness with the top five sleepers at the receiver position. As usual, ADP data is pulled from MFL, and sleepers are anyone being taken past the 48th pick in PPR formats.

5. Devante Parker – Dolphins

Current ADP: #88 (WR33)

Age: 25 

Potential Upside: B+

Parker falls into the small category of players that find their way aboard the preseason hype train regardless of recent production. The growing frustration is understandable, but I assure you this season is unique. He’s currently going off the board at WR33, which is a reasonable price for someone with his ability.

The departure of Jarvis Landry is a genuinely big deal for the receiving core in Miami. The signing of Danny Amendola is a factor but not one that should keep Parker from seeing a significant uptick in targets. He saw 95 last year, and with Landry’s 156 leaving town, the 25 year old receiver is a lock to see an increase. If Parker steals even 15-20 of those from Amendola he’d average more than seven targets per game over the course of a full season.

Let’s take a look at how he’s performed since 2016 in games that yielded at least seven targets:

As you can see, Tannehill significantly boosted Parker’s stock in games in which they were both on the field. Even if you take the small sample size out of the equation, the target increase alone should lock him in to outperform his ADP. When combined with his athleticism and a returning Tannehill, he becomes someone with significant upside. Don’t let narrative exhaustion cloud the data, at his current price he’s worth the pick.

4. Nelson Agholor

Current ADP: #107 (WR39)

Age: 25

Potential Upside: B

Agholor’s production simply isn’t aligned with his draft price. Up until Carson Wentz‘ week 14 injury, Agholor was the WR23 while playing alongside Alshon Jeffery. The only thing that changed was Nick Foles‘ taking over behind center. This is simply a case of ‘what have you done for me lately?’

The circumstances of his production drop are directly tied to his QB going down, which should lead to a return to form when his QB returns. Wentz is on pace to start in week one, which means Agholor should slide right back into his role on the Eagles offense and on your fantasy team. There’s no reason to let him drop this far when he’s 25 and paired with a promising young QB. He’s a steal right now in dynasty, and if things stay this way, he’ll be a steal in redraft too.

3. Jamison Crowder – Redskins

Current ADP: #102 (WR37)

Age: 24

Potential Upside: B+

There’s quite a few mouths to feed in Washington, along with some unanswered questions. The most prominent of which revolves around whether or not Alex Smith is an elite quarterback or just an average journeyman who benefits from the right system. Smith was shockingly efficient last season, finishing in the top 10 in nearly every relevant passing category according to player profiler.

Crowder increased his production in every season since he’s been in the league, and Smith could be the missing piece to take him over the top. He’s is the type of player that Smith will fall in love with on Sundays, similar to how he did with Travis Kelce.

Crowder played over 50% of his snaps from the slot and finished seventh in the league last year in terms of target separation, which tracks a receivers ability to get open quickly. Paired with Smith’s efficiency when throwing deep (2nd in the NFL), Crowder should see a lot of easy coverage opportunities underneath. He’s a breakout candidate, especially in PPR formats.

2. Geronimo Allison – Packers

Current ADP: #219 (WR87)

Age: 24 

Potential Upside: A-

This one is summed up in two words: Aaron Rodgers. It’s further summed up by a short list of guys you likely remember: James Jones, Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley. These are a few of the players who had their careers made by catching passes from one of the best of all time.

Sometimes it’s easiest to digest simple facts in a game driven by analytics. For instance: receivers playing with hall of fame quarterbacks elevate their game more times than not. Allison is a young player who hasn’t been a staple in the offense just yet, but has a great chance to flourish after the departure of Jordy Nelson.

There’s always a possibility Allison will be surpassed on the depth chart by either of the two rookies taken in the 2018 draft, or end up playing third fiddle to Randall Cobb. The main reason for this pick is his outrageous draft price.

Since 2013, the WR2 in Green Bay has finished in the top fifteen three times, and in the top ten twice. Rodgers hasn’t been paired with a top three receiving option who finished lower than WR60 since 2012. Allison will outplay his ADP, and there’s a realistic chance he finishes as the top sleeper in all of fantasy.

1. Marquise Goodwin – 49ers

Current ADP: #121 (WR45)

Age: 27

Potential Upside: A

Goodwin isn’t necessarily the spring chicken of this group. He’s 27 years old and has to compete for targets with Pierre Garcon in a new look offense……

And I will still reach for him in every league.

He’s far and away the top option in the middle rounds of dynasty drafts because he’s one of the few guys in that range that has an incredibly high ceiling. We call this type of performance the “Jimmy G Effect”:

Goodwin wasn’t just on pace to be a solid fantasy option, he was on pace to be a WR1. He only found the end zone one time and still outperformed guys like AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Stefon Diggs. If he sees any positive touchdown regression you’re looking at a bona fide fantasy darling. It’s a small sample size, but the production can’t be underestimated. He’s an easy choice for this top spot, and someone I want on my team in every format possible.

Next: Check Out The Sleepers at The RB Position

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest Fantasy Football Dynasty previews as we get you set for the 2018 NFL season!