DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, June 21

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have another seven game slate so let’s get moving.

Last night was one of the more tilting nights I’ve had as a DFS MLB player. I wound up finishing just a few points away from the cash lines even without Coors hitters, and that was with three Pirates hitters. Every weatherman out there agreed that the game would play……until it didn’t. That was a true bummer and cost me money, but remember to be nice to guys like Kevin Roth and Mark Paquette who bust their butts and are invaluable resources for daily fantasy. I sure don’t know anything about the weather. They do and I’ll still put my faith in them every time. It just means we have to make the money back tonight!

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Pirates

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.77 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .352 wOBA, 22.6 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .334 wOBA, 34.8 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

The word Pirates might still get people riled up from last night, but they are in an interesting spot this evening. Godley has been pretty good for fantasy his last two starts and he’s got talent. It just hasn’t always shown up through the season. Austin Meadows sure piques my interest because he’s the Pirates best hitter against the curveball, which Godley throws it almost forty percent of the time. Not only is he the Pirates best hitter against the pitch, the youngster ranks 13th in baseball. At just $3,000 on FanDuel, he’ll be a pretty easy fit regardless of who you’d like to pitch. Colin Moran and Starling Marte hit the pitch well but I would lean towards Marte due to the fly balls Godley gives up to righties and Marte has the stolen base upside that Moran does not.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Austin Meadows, Starling Marte

Secondary Options – Colin Moran, Francisco Cervelli

Pirates Probable Starter – Chad Kuhl, RHP 

3.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .237 average, .344 wOBA, 43.9 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .273 average, .320 wOBA, 32.5 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard contact rate

A lefty stack from Arizona might not be the easiest fit with the super ace that is on the slate tonight, but you might want to make the effort to fit one or two. Lefties have always been an issue for Kuhl, and the splits are significant over the course of his career. David Peralta, Daniel Descalso, and Jon Jay all have a wOBA over .380 against right handed pitching this season. Jake Lamb is down at .311, but he’s always smacked righties around. They all range between $3,200 and $3,600 on FanDuel, but my favorite is Peralta. He’s not only swinging a hot bat, but he’s closing in on his career high in home runs and it’s only the middle of June. Even though the splits don’t point us towards a righty hitter, Paul Goldschmidt has been one of the best hitters in baseball the past few weeks. When a hitter of his caliber gets hot, you have to pay attention.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jon Jay, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso

Secondary Options – Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt

Home Run Pick – Austin Meadows

DFS MLB – Orioles at Nationals

Orioles Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP

4.48 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH -.253 average, .316 wOBA, 36.8 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH -.307 average, .376 wOBA, 26.9 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard contact rate

I could really see Gausman throwing a good game tonight. He’s been much better against lefties this season and that’s where the best hitters for the Nationals are. Bryce Harper is scuffling mightily right now, and I flat won’t play him at his price point. Adam Eaton, Juan Soto and Daniel Murphy are all lefties, and on top of that, Gausman throws a splitter that no Washington hitter rates very well against. Now, the Baltimore righty has shown the ability to go out and get smashed by any lineup. I just think this side of the game is a GPP target only. The Nationals hitters you want to play are basically all priced at a premium.  I can’t see a play that I would really trust in cash.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Trea Turner

Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper

Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.06 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 39.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .195 average, .274 wOBA, 52.1 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .144 average, .196 wOBA, 38.4 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate

This is the easiest spot of the night to discuss. I do not play hitters against Max Scherzer. There is virtually zero upside to it. Unless you want to stack against him in case you can catch him on a terrible day. If you go the road less travelled, I would include Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo. I’m not a big GPP player so I won’t have a single Oriole today. The biggest decision tonight is can we find enough value to lock in Scherzer at $12,200. That’s a hefty price to pay for sure.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Home Run Pick – Trea Turner

DFS MLB – Cubs at Reds

Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP 

3.55 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .196 average, .292 wOBA, 42.0 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .306 wOBA, 27.0 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate

Hendricks is always a pitcher that I avoid all the way around. He’s not good enough for fantasy to want to play, even though he has a reasonable price. There is just no upside to chase as he’s only been over 40 FanDuel points twice all season. When a pitcher is in this price range, I want to find someone that I think can get me over 40 points. I also don’t really like to use hitters against him because he’s a solid pitcher in real life. Even though the average is a good bit better against lefties, I’d still want to side with lefty hitters like Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett. The fly ball rate and hard contact rate to lefties is something that you can chase in Cincinnati. I’ll be way more interested in the lefties from the other side of the game.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP 

5.92 ERA, .138 WHIP and 17.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .393 wOBA, 43.8 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, 313 wOBA,  31.4 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard contact rate

If you liked the lefties for the D-Backs in Pittsburgh, you have to be making heart hands and sending some chocolates to the lefties for the Cubbies in this spot. Chicago has two big power lefties and a really solid on-base lefty at a cheap price. The way to go for me is to try and fit Scherzer and all three of Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist. I don’t know if that will be possible but we’ll see how the rest of the slate looks. There’s almost no way Harvey doesn’t get whacked like a piñata tonight. I wouldn’t talk you off of Kris Bryant or Javier Baez if you want to. Ian Happ might be the most underrated part of the Cubs team if he’s in the lineup. I say might because he is one of the cheaper bats in the lineup.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ

Secondary Options – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rizzo and Ian Happ

A’s at White Sox

A’s Probable Starter – Chris Bassitt, RHP

2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate *2 starts*

Vs LHH – .118 average, .158 wOBA, 30.8 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .286 average, .332 wOBA, 39.1 fly ball rate and 47.8 hard contact rate

We’ve only had two starts this season for Bassitt, so the splits are just a starting point. Still, the gap is wide enough to make us look at righty hitters over the lefties. The issue becomes the righty bats for the White Sox aren’t all that inspiring. Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson are just fine against righty pitching and I’m not thinking either one will be a primary target. Matt Davidson owns the best wOBA against righties at .355 and his price point is just OK. There’s nothing really wrong with this side of the game, but I definitely like a few spots better.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP 

7.19 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 12.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .401 wOBA, 45.2 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .332 wOBA, 41.3 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard contact rate

So Giolito is in a weird spot because the A’s are going to be very chalky and I definitely understand that. To me, a lot of this game comes down to who catches Giolito. A tip of the hat to Ricky Sanders of Rotocurve for putting me onto this stat(and Christopher Kamka), but let’s take a look at how Giolito does depending on catcher.

Now, Smith has caught the last two starts for Giolito with poor results. One of those starts was against the Indians and the other was against the Tigers. I’m not saying Giolito is some type of great pitcher with Smith. I’m just throwing a word of caution that if it’s Smith, the A’s might not go as bananas as many think. No matter who’s catching, Matt Olson is an unbelievable play at just $3,000 on FanDuel. Matt Joyce could be back off the DL and would be an auto lock at minimum price and Franklin Barreto is also minimum coming off a huge game yesterday. Khris Davis is expensive, but he mashes righty pitching.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson, Matt Joyce, Franklin Barreto, Khris Davis

Secondary Options -Jed Lowrie

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Brewers

Cardinals Probable Starter – Carlos Martinez, RHP 

2.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .291 wOBA, 31.3 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, .302 wOBA, 24.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

If you just looked at the metrics, you would probably assume that Martinez would be at least $9,000 tonight. Since he’s been struggling since he returned form the DL, his price is all the way down at $7,300. I’ll be honest, that sure is tempting to play against the 24.9 strikeout percentage of the Brewers tonight. I think I’ll have him in a small tournament lineup just from the price point. If he pitches like he’s capable of, he will crush his pricing. I don’t love the Milwaukee side either for that exact reason. You’re banking on a talented pitcher to remain pitching poorly. That can’t continue forever. I would go after the fly ball rate to lefties if you really wanted to, so I would go with Eric Thames or Travis Shaw for the home run chance.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

2.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .290 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .288 wOBA, 42.4 fly ball rate and 43.2 hard contact rate

Guerra continues to be a solid pitcher, but I will continue to say he’s not near as good as the ERA and WHIP would lead you to believe. It’s a rare pitcher that can give up this amount of hard contact and fly balls and survive start after start. His splits really aren’t a big deal so we can stick with the Cardinals best hitters. It’s not my favorite spot, but I would give a lean towards Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, and Tommy Pham. This game as a whole isn’t one of my favorites on the evening. Yes, it’s in Miller Park which is usually a slam dunk. Both pitchers are quality and I’m much happier to chase other spots on this slate.

Cardinals Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Home Run Pick – Eric Thames

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Angels

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Aaron Sanchez, RHP 

4.35 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .383 wOBA, 33.9 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .273 wOBA, 30.2 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard contact rate

This might sound totally crazy, but I actually don’t think Sanchez is the worst play ever tonight. The Angels have a ton of righties, and some of them aren’t even that good (like Albert Pujols) and the lefties they do have are limited. The issue becomes the Angels don’t strike out that often and it’s also hard not to favor Mike Trout against basically every pitcher on every night. Kole Calhoun hit a home run coming back off the disabled list, and is still very cheap, as is Luis Valbuena. I still like Carlos Martinez better at a cheaper price, but Sanchez could see some success tonight.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Kole Calhoun, Luis Valbuena

Angels Probable Starter – Tyler Skaggs, LHP 

2.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 25.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .204 wOBA, 40.4 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .331 wOBA, 31.9 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard contact rate

This really isn’t the spot that I want to use Skaggs in, although he’s having a pretty good season. He scuffles against righties just a little bit although the wOBA against isn’t all that bad. The Jays have a bottom 10 strikeout rate as a team and I think one punt play is Devon Travis. He’s hitting lefties fairly well this year, and the wOBA between him and Justin Smoak is almost identical. Smoak is $800 more expensive. The player that catches my eye most is Teoscar Hernandez. Paying $3,700 may not be the most ideal play give some of the big bats around this salary range, but don’t be surprised if Hernandez finds the seats in this game. This side of the game doesn’t rate all that highly for me. The more I look at things, Calhoun might be my favorite play from this entire game.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Options – Justin Smoak, Devon Travis

Home Run Pick – Devon Travis

DFS MLB – Padres at Giants

Padres Probable Starter – Tyson Ross, RHP 

3.51 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .293 average, .361 wOBA, 22.8 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .158 average, .226 wOBA, 33.0 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard contact rate

This is kind of a toss up for Ross as far as it being a bounce back spot. He throws his slider incessantly at almost 45 percent of the time. By the pitch data, the best active hitter against the slider is Pablo Sandoval. Andrew McCutchen has been carrying the offense lately, but he’s the worst Giants hitter against the pitch. The flip side of the positive correlation with pitch data is Ross has been getting hit by lefties. Hitters like Joe Panik, Alen Hanson and Brandon Belt could all hit towards the top of the lineup and give Ross some fits. I’ve been using Ross plenty this year, but I kind of want to see him get back on track before I’m using him again, despite being in a good park.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Belt

Secondary Options – Joe Panik, Alen Hanson

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

4.67 average, 1.38 WHIP and 11.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .100 average, .205 wOBA, 16.7 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .295 average, .381 wOBA, 38.9 fly ball rate and 49.1 hard contact rate

Some people might gravitate towards Bumgarner on this slate, and I almost hope they do because I’m not ready to be back on Bumgarner until he shows some strikeout upside. He only has nine strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched, and that’s just not normal for him. He’s got a great matchup as the Padres strikeout at the third highest rate in baseball and Bumgarner gets to pitch at home. If he continues to not miss bats, Christian Villanueva is going to hit a home run even though it’s a pitcher’s park. The third baseman for the Padres has a .557 ISO, 1.264 OPS and a .519 wOBA against lefties this season. Bumgarner has a strikeout rate of just 9.4 percent against righty hitting so far this year, somewhat negating Villanueva’s own issues with the strikeout. Nobody is going to play this guy and he could fly you up the leaderboards late.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Christian Villanueva

Secondary Options – Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela

Home Run Pick – Christian Villanueva

DFS MLB  FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Max Scherzer

C/1B – Anthony Rizzo

2B – Devon Travis 

3B – Christian Villanueva 

SS – Franklin Barreto

OF – Kole Calhoun, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Utility – Matt Olson 

I could wind up eating these words, but it’s relatively easy to fit Mad Max and a couple of big power bats that I like. Scherzer should be this expensive, and we’re relying on the A’s to play Barreto. If not, we’ll have to reconfigure. If they do, it affords us the chance to play at least five bats that have legitimate home run upside tonight. Schwarber, Rizzo, Happ, Olson and Villanueva could all easily leave the yard or at least have big game. Travis and Calhoun shouldn’t give us a zero as Travis has been much better recently and there were reports that Kole Calhoun re-worked his swing on his way back from injury. It sure worked out the other night and I’ll take him on the weak side of the splits for Aaron Sanchez.

The Core – Max Scherzer, Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo

Stacks To Consider – Cubs(at Cincinnati), A’s(at White Sox) and Diamondbacks lefties(at Pittsburgh)

Next: MLB DFS Player Rankings and Slate Strategy on DRAFT

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.