Here’s how Argentina can avoid embarrassment and advance to the knockout stage
By Josh Hill
Argentina is choking in Russia, but there’s still hope that Lionel Messi and company can advance to the knockout round.
It can’t be overstated how shockingly bad Argentina has been in the World Cup this year. Having the world’s best footballer on its side hasn’t afforded the Argentinians any advantages, as they drew against Iceland and followed that up by losing to Croatia on Thursday.
More accurately, Argentina got its doors blown off against a squad they should have beaten. Double that when you consider the context that Lionel Messi is staring down an early exit from this year’s tournament.
With Argentina’s back against the wall, there’s still a chance it can punch through to the next round. A very specific set of things need to happen, though.
Cue the Dumb and Dumber meme, because we’re saying there’s a chance.
There are two scenarios in which Argentina can avoid embarrassment and advance to the knockout stage.
The first:
- Iceland ties or loses to Nigeria
- Croatia beats or ties with Iceland
- Argentina beats Nigeria
That’s the best case scenario for Argentina, but it’s still a rough road to travel. An even rougher one would be if Iceland wins, which would throw out the above scenario and trigger the last case scenario for Messi’s squad.
- Iceland beats Nigeria
- Argentina beats Nigeria
- Iceland loses to Croatia
If that happens, Argentina would be tied with Iceland and the tiebreaker comes down to goal differential. That’s a key variable here because if Iceland scores more goals than Argentina (which right now is just one), they’ll advance.
Basically, it’s a very narrow window through which Argentina can advance to the knockout round. If none of the above scenarios play out, Messi and his cohorts are going home empty handed without even getting to the next stage of the tournament.