Fantasy Fool's Gold: Odell Beckham, Jr.

Fantasy Fool’s Gold: Odell Beckham, Jr.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 08: A fan holds a sign for Odell Beckham #13 of the New York Giants (not pictured) against the Los Angeles Chargers during an NFL game at MetLife Stadium on October 8, 2017 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Los Angeles Chargers defeated the New York Giants 27-22. (Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images) /

The return of Odell Beckham Jr. has been a long wait. But will he come back as good as before?

When draft day comes this year, one player to absolutely avoid: Odell Beckham, Jr. Most mocks you read will tell you he needs to be the third receiver taken after Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. That’s going to translate to an investment between picks 8-12 in your draft this year. And for good reason. Look at the numbers his first three years, and it seems like he’s the whole package: 1,300+ yards, double digit touchdowns. It’s all there. But look a little deeper, and you see that Beckham’s best years in New York are already behind him, even at age 26.

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Beckham showed the most promise in the offseason after his rookie year. For his ADP the following two years (2^nd WR; 8^th player taken) he’s never finished top two in receptions, yards, or touchdowns. Maybe the most glaring numbers are Beckham’s Yards per Game, which have decreased every year, to go from 108.8 his rookie year, down to 75.5 in 2017.

Speaking of 2017, Beckham is no guarantee to stay on the field. Can you say that about any NFL player? Sure, but it just seems like there’s a little extra concern when it comes to Beckham. Maybe it’s because he tries to play bigger than his 5’11”198 lb. frame. Maybe it’s the acrobatic catches. Maybe that chip on his shoulder is going to cause permanent damage. Whatever the reason, there are players that have proven to be more durable than Beckham that you can invest that high a pick in.

Losing red zone targets will decrease his value

The emergence of Evan Engram in New York’s offense diminishes Beckham’s value even further, especially in the red zone. In 2016, Beckham only had Sterling Shepard taking touchdowns away (8), but in 2018, Shepard, Engram and newly drafted running back Saquon Barkley will most likely cut into Beckham’s touchdown total.

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In all likelihood, Beckham will have a very nice 2018. Will it be a 2018 worthy of a 1^st round pick? I don’t think so. Let somebody else make that mistake, while you get maximum value out of your first rounder.

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