Brazil vs. Belgium: 5 key matchups

Brazil face Belgium in the quarterfinals of the World Cup on Friday. Here are five key matchups that could decide the result.

Brazil beat Mexico 2-0 in their round of 16 match on Monday. A brilliant team goal combined with a late counter-attack in the second half was enough to see them through to the quarterfinals yet again. They’ll face Belgium, who most wrote off after Japan scored twice in four minutes in the second half in their knockout round game. A few key substitutions from Roberto Martinez helped them claw their way back into the match, and a devastating break off a Japan corner in the last minute of extra time gave them the improbable win.

With two of the best and most exciting teams left in the tournament to face off in the quarterfinals, here are five key matchups that will ultimately determine the outcome.

Romelu Lukaku vs. Thiago Silva

Even though Lukaku didn’t get a touch on Belgium’s game-winner, he proved absolutely vital in the execution. After Kevin De Bruyne picked up the ball in their own half, Lukaku sprinted to join in the attack. His run forced Japan’s left-back Yuto Nagatoma to shift inside while Thomas Meunier ran down the wing to collect De Bruyne’s perfectly timed pass.

He continued his run back inside to receive the upcoming cross, but had the poise and understanding that Nacer Chadli was running in behind in a better position to score, and dummied the pass so his teammate could tuck it home. It was a brilliant piece of play from a striker that’s often misrepresented or misunderstood, and is going to play a key role if Belgium can upset Brazil.

Lukaku’s movement and runs are among the most intelligent of any striker at the World Cup, and Thiago Silva will have his hands full tracking them. Luckily for Brazil, Silva is one of the best center-backs in the world, and his best attributes are his defensive positioning and reading of the game.

Eden Hazard vs. Fernandinho

Casemiro picked up a yellow card against Mexico that means he’ll be suspended for the match against Belgium. Fernandinho is likely to get the start in his place, although Tite may reconfigure his midfield slightly in the absence of his only true defensive midfielder.

If Fernandinho does get the start, he’ll be the player tasked with keeping tabs on Eden Hazard. Hazard has a relatively free role for Belgium, often drifting out to the left wing, where he typically plays for Chelsea, but comfortable coming inside and operating as a more traditional number 10.

Fernandinho enjoyed an excellent season with Manchester City, but isn’t the natural defender Casemiro is. He’ll be familiar with Hazard from their clashes in the Premier League, however, and is smart enough positionally to limit his impact, at least as much as anyone can limit his impact.

Neymar vs. Thomas Meunier

With Neymar, the matchup is always going to be more than just a one-on-one. Thomas Meunier started three of the four Belgium matches as a right wing-back in a back five, and is paired with Toby Alderweireld on the right side of the three center-backs. Their main task will be to shut down Neymar, who is getting better and fitter game by game.

Meunier is a wing-back, so, by nature, he’ll be getting forward to provide width in the attack with regularity. When this is well drilled it doesn’t create a problem defensively, but it has come back to haunt Belgium a few times this tournament already. When Neymar is the opposition attacker on that side, it creates a lot more problems.

Meunier will have to pick his spots to get forward better, and they’ll likely not come as often as they have so far this tournament. Leaving Alderweireld on an island against one of the world’s best players is a recipe for disaster.

Axel Witsel vs. Paulinho

Paulinho can do many things well, but only has one area he excels in: Late or unexpected runs into the box.

The Barcelona man scored six goals in Brazil’s World Cup qualifiers, with most of them the result of late runs into the box. His unpredictable runs came in handy against Serbia to open up the scoring, as he poked an inch-perfect pass from Philippe Coutinho past the onrushing keeper from 12 yards out. Those runs usually come when Brazil are testing the opposition’s defense, passing the ball around outside of the box trying to find a way through. Paulinho then bursts forward to give a new angle for attack and gets on the scoresheet.

When the defense is so occupied dealing with whatever terrifying attacker is on the ball, it’s the deeper lying midfielder’s job to keep track of those runs. Axel Witsel and Kevin De Bruyne are the two that sit back the most, and Witsel is the more likely to to be asked to play a more defensive role. It may prove beneficial for Roberto Martinez to play with a third central midfielder to prevent those runs from doing too much damage, but he’s been consistent in his choice of two so far. That means a more concerted defensive effort out of Witsel.

Next: The best player on every team at the World Cup

Gabriel Jesus vs. Vincent Kompany

Jesus hasn’t had the breakout tournament some predicted he might. He had seven goals in qualifying but, despite starting every match so far, has not gotten off the mark. His backup, Roberto Firmino, scored his first in the late stages against Mexico, which could mean a shorter leash on his minutes.

But he hasn’t had great service for the most part either. Early in the group stage, Brazil seemed intent on lofting balls into the box — definitely not Jesus’ strong suite. Where he thrives is receiving through balls off the defender’s hip and getting into positions for an easy finish. He’s much quicker and more agile than Vincent Kompany, and could get off the mark using that pace against Belgium

Kompany returned from injury to start against Japan and had a few understandable hiccups against a smaller, more nimble attack. Kompany still reads the game well and can outduel most strikers in the air, but Brazil should be living with the ball on the ground. That could be trouble for Belgium.