DraftKings Main MLB Picks July 9: Is Kershaw a safe play?
There are nine games in main tournament tonight. The second game of the Mets-Phillies and Yankees-Orioles twin bills are off the books all together in DraftKings land. However, the nine games we have left on the slate give us some really good pitchers, but are they in name only? The middle tier looks strong enough to drop down and take both pitchers from there. What is the right move?
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We have another clean weather day with the only wind being the customary ones in San Francisco. There is also a 13 mph wind out to left in Fenway.
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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Clayton Kershaw ($12,900): There is risk in paying this much for a pitcher that is admittedly on an innings limit but Kershaw is still elite. Don’t believe me? The Padres are hitting just .212 with only one homer and four runs in 80 at bats with 24 strikeouts. Admittedly, Berrios probably has the higher upside, but Kershaw is somewhat less volatile.
Jose Berrios ($12,100): The Royals have actually hit Berrios well, but he has been dominant at home. Berrios has a 2.62 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in ten home starts. I’ll trust him here against the Royals. This offense is struggling still. We could see another dominant home start for Berrios.
Mike Clevinger ($11,500): On the surface, it would seem that Clevinger is worth every penny. I’m not convinced. It seems as though the Indians are trying to take it easy on Clevinger’s innings, and the Reds offense is really cooking right now. Clevinger is still going to put together a good start here, but I don’t know if it’s going to be $11,500 good.
Chase Anderson ($8,500): This could be a sneaky place to use Anderson. Of course, sneaky and $8,500 don’t really jive. That said, Anderson struggled in his first start against the Marlins this year, but that was in Milwaukee. You know, the place where Anderson has a 4.83 ERA. This time it’s in Miami. Anderson has a 2.88 ERA in seven road starts this year. There is good potential here. Just keep in mind that the Marlins offense has woken up a bit recently.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,400): The Rangers are hitting just .171 against Rodriguez, but they have homered three times in 35 at bats. The strikeout potential is enough to keep us on Rodriguez. So is his 3.38 ERA over his last ten starts. The rough start for Eduardo is over, and he has quietly racked up ten wins and 100 strikeouts already. There is plenty of potential here at a reasonable price.
Chris Archer ($8,100): This will be Archer’s return from the disabled list, and he gets a matchup that really couldn’t be any better. Archer only gave up two runs in six innings to the Tigers earlier this year. The Tigers are also hitting just .184 off of Archer with no homers, five runs, and 26 strikeouts in 76 at bats. The hindrance here is that Archer is supposed to be limited to 75 pitches. Can he live up to this cost?
Andrew Suarez ($8,000): Suarez has a 3.13 ERA at home, so he could be worth a look, even against the mighty Cubs. However, as we have all seen this year, the Cubs can go cold at any time. I wouldn’t go all in on Suarez, but he is a solid option to buck the trends with.
Jose Urena ($6,900): Urena was roughed up a bit in his first start against Milwaukee earlier this year. Ryan Braun and Manny Pina did most of the damage, but they are both out. Urena has dominated the Orioles and Rays in two of his last three starts. In the other, he gave up five runs in 5.2 innings against the Giants. What I’m trying to say is that there is plenty of risk here.
Francisco Liriano ($6,500): Strangely enough, Liriano has struggled in Detroit this year. As we well know, Comerica Park is a pitcher’s haven. Liriano has an ERA that is over two runs lower on the road. The risk here is that Liriano is still walking batters like it’s the next new fad among pitchers. Now, the Rays offense isn’t elite, and they usually don’t even act like it. There is solid potential even though Liriano is not the pitcher he used to be.
Danny Duffy ($5,800): Duffy is starting to erase that horrendous start to the season. Even in the midst of that disaster, he held the Twins to one run in six innings. Cleveland derailed him last week, but they are an elite offense. Duffy has a decent 4.26 ERA in 11 road starts. The strikeout upside is very real with Duffy, and is something that you rarely get for this price. Duffy seems very underpriced here.
Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Minor:
Minor has been better than expected this year, but things have started to go south lately, especially on road trips. Minor’s ERA is all the way up to 4.63, and it is an ugly 6.82 on the road. Fenway is a hitter’s paradise stocked with a lineup full of All Stars. The Red Sox are hitting .333 with three homers and 12 runs in 51 at bats. Mookie, J.D., and Steve Pearce have all hit home runs off of Minor so far. Xander and Eduardo Nunez are worth a look as well. In fact, I’m not opposed to using lefties since I’d be shocked if Minor manages to stay in there for half the game.
Washington Nationals vs. Ivan Nova:
The Nationals are hitting .347 in 75 at bats against Nova with two homers and 16 runs. Matt Adams and Bryce Harper have the homers. Yeah, that’s a huge surprise, I know. Daniel Murphy is 4-11 with two RBI. Mark Reynolds has driven in four as well. Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, and Rendon are all worth a look as well. Wilmer Difo is an excellent way to save money, and he is 3-5 off of Nova already.
Cleveland Indians vs. Anthony DeSclafani:
DeSclafani has had two subpar starts in a row, and it wont get any easier here in Cleveland. He has been better on the road, but that was one start in Pittsburgh. DeSclafani is going to be a good pitcher some day, but I don’t think this is it. Michael Brantley has homered off of him already. Lindor and Kipnis have scored two runs. Yonder Alonso and the red hot Jose Ramirez are great picks as well if you can find the money for this high priced stack.
Houston Astros vs. Frankie Montas:
Well, the wheels fell off of Montas, and the Astros are a part of that. The Astros have scored seven runs in just 26 at bats. Marwin Gonzalez is super cheap, and has the only homer off of Montas. Gurriel, Altuve, Josh Reddick, and Bregman are at the top of my list, but I certainly can’t fault using Gattis or Springer either.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Luis Perdomo:
The Dodgers have destroyed Perdomo, hitting .369 with seven homers and 27 runs off of him in only 84 at bats. A Dodgers stack is expensive, but chances are it will pay off. Max Muncy, Logan Forsythe, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, and Chase Utley have all homered off of Perdomo. Yasmani Grandal has two. Bellinger and Matt Kemp are certainly worth a look here as well.
Joey Votto drove in two runs against Mike Clevinger in his only start against him. With the way this offense is playing, having a Reds player or two is not the worst idea. I am off Billy Hamilton though. There is something that happens when he sees a Cubs uniform on the mound. Now that magic is over from a DFS standpoint.
As awesome as Gerrit Cole has been this year, four of his last five starts have fallen short of the 20 DraftKings points threshold. On top of that, the A’s are hitting .243 with two homers and 15 runs in 115 at bats. This Oakland offense isn’t as bad as some make them out to be. Khris Davis and Piscotty have the homers. Jonathan Lucroy has seven RBI in 25 at bats against Cole.
Brandon Belt and Gorkys Hernandez have both homered off of Kyle Hendricks. It may be harder to get the ball out of the park in San Francisco, and truth be told, Hendricks has actually pitched pretty well there in his career. I don’t really trust him though. I’m not sure that I trust Giants hitters either. It seems as though there are better options for the same price.
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Surprisingly, it has been Joey Gallo that has two of the three homers off of lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. DeShields also has homered off of him as well. Gallo could be a particularly interesting play since his troubles against lefties are well documented. His ownership will be really low.
Jefry Rodriguez could be an interesting play if you need a cheap pitcher, but I don’t trust him. Yes, even against the Pirates. I would rather throw a couple of Pirates out there and hope to catch those that took a chance on Jefry. I’m most interested in Austin Meadows and Gregory Polanco.
The Marlins are way too cheap against Chase Anderson. The Marlins put up three runs on him the first time around. Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour have both homered off of Anderson in the past. Cameron Maybin could be worth a look on the cheap as well.
Robbie Grossman has the only Twins homer off Danny Duffy. Brian Dozier has four RBI, but is hitting just .216 in 37 at bats. Honestly, I’m not all that crazy about the Twins today. I expect a quality start for Duffy.
Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon are both $3,000 or less, and they have both homered off of Jose Berrios. Moose has homered off of him as well. The question here is how much do you really trust these guys?
Eric Hosmer is 5-8 with a homer and two RBI against the great Clayton Kershaw. Using Hosmer at this low of a price is not the worst idea that I’ve ever had.
Oh, those Rays. They’re cheap. Daniel Robertson has a homer against Francisco Liriano. Carlos Gomez has three and ten runs scored in 24 at bats. Matt Duffy is worth a look as well. The kicker: they are all $3,500 or less. If you are looking to spend a little more, C.J. Cron is worth a look as well.
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