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DraftKings PGA: 2018 John Deere Classic Picks and Analysis

By Benjamin Main

SILVIS, IL - JULY 14: Steve Stricker hits his approach shot on the 17th hole during the second round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 14, 2017 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
SILVIS, IL - JULY 14: Steve Stricker hits his approach shot on the 17th hole during the second round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 14, 2017 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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PGA DFS Golf
SILVIS, IL – AUGUST 13: Fans cheer on the 18th hole at the finish of the third round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on August 13, 2016 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Cohen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA: John Deere Classic

Congratulations to Kevin Na! Firing a final round 64 to come from behind and capture the trophy. The Greenbrier played pretty firm, but there were still plenty of birdies. It was not quite the wedge-fest we were hoping for, but -19 is right in line with past champions.

If you liked the layout of the Greenbrier Old White Course, then you are going to love TPC Deere Run. This week, the PGA tour Silvis Illinois on the Mississippi River. The field is depressed due to the top golfers traveling across the pond for next week’s Open Championship. However, we still have some top-level talent here this week. Defending his crown, Bryson DeChambeau looks to join Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker as the only multiple time winners at the John Deere Classic. Francesco Molinari also returns to action after a victory at the Quicken Loans. In addition to DeChambeau and Molinari, Kyle Stanley and Si-Woo Kim are the only other OWGR top 50 golfers in the field.

TPC Deere Run is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour schedule. The par-71 plays 7,268 yards and boasts some of the easiest fairways to hit on the tour. It is not because the course is so wide open that the fairways are easy to hit, but it is because the course layout requires distance control off of the tee due to dog-legs and wooded areas. Big hitters have not had a major advantage on this course. This week is all about wedges and putting. The greens are soft and have a fantastic bentgrass roll. I usually don’t place much emphasis on putting, but this is a week that you cannot overlook this stat.

Key Stats

The keys stats that I am focusing on this week for Quicken Loans National DraftKings PGA GPP contests:

Tee to Green Gained

Approach Gained

Scoring Gained

Putting Gained

Bentgrass Greens Gained

Fairways Gained

Birdie or Better Gained

As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.

The reason why I chose these key stats is because this course is simple: fairway, wedge, and putt. Birdie or better gained is added because DrafftKings scoring places a huge emphasis on birdies and eagles.

SILVIS, IL – JULY 16: Bryson DeChambeau speaks with his caddie in the 18th fairway during the final round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 16, 2017 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
SILVIS, IL – JULY 16: Bryson DeChambeau speaks with his caddie in the 18th fairway during the final round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 16, 2017 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

John Deere Classic – Golfers to Target

$11,600 Francesco Molinari

I cannot imagine fading DeChambeau or Molinari this week. They are hands down the best two golfers in the field. Both are playing incredible this year and they seem to fit this course extremely well. Molinari is the best tee-to-green player in the field, and if he is striking hi wedges like he was at Quicken Loans National, he will win by 8 strokes again.

$11,400 Bryson DeChambeau

It is difficult not to play DeChambeau this week. He won the tournament last year and he comes in with amazing 2018 form. He stats out nicely in my model, ranking in the top 10 in the field in 4 of the 7 categories that I am weighing.

$9,700 Kyle Stanley

My model loves Kyle Stanley this week. He is a solid ball striker and a good putter. His form is great, sporting 5 top 20’s in his last 9 events. His course history is also solid, making the cut four consecutive years with a T55, T22, T18 and T63 finishes.

$9,500 Chesson Hadley

Scott Piercy is one of the premier ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks 3rd on the tour in approach gained and 17th in tee-to-green gained. Piercy is also somewhat of a par 4 specialist, ranking in the top 15 in the field in par 4 scoring and par 4 birdie or better. The form has not been excellent, but Piercy has won this year (Zurich Classic) and made the cut in his last event. Piercy finished T29 at this tournament in 2015.

Values to Target

$7,300 Corey Conners

Conners is striking the ball exceptionally well this year. He ranks 14th in the field in approach gained and 11th in the field in tee-to-green gained. His crisp iron play is translating to scoring as well, as he enters the week making 6 of his last 7 cuts. Conners has never played this course, but it should fit his skill set nicely.

$7,200 Trey Mullinax

Mullinax is the bomber of all bombers. He leads the Tour in driving distance and his irons are basically mini cannons. TPC John Deere may seem too short to contain all that length, but Mullinax finished T19 in his first visit here in 2017. Mullinax will be able to score on these par 5’s, and if he is able to gain strokes with his wedges then he will be able to notch his 4th top 10 of the season.

John Deere Classic
SILVIS, IL – JULY 14: Steve Stricker hits his approach shot on the 17th hole during the second round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 14, 2017 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

John Deere Classic – Pivot Plays

It is impossible to predict the chalk plays each week with certainty, but here are a few golfers that I (and the DrafKings PGA community) believe will garner high ownership.

Zach Johnson $11,200

Ryan Moore $10,200

Wesley Bryan $9,100

Andrew Putnam $7,600

Scott Stallings $7,500

Brandon Harkins $7,300

$9,700 Kyle Stanley

Stanley is one of my favorite plays this week, and I think he may get overlooked. I am guessing that people will tend to pay up for one of the top golfers this week (Molinari, DeChambeau, Johnson), which means Stanley could get overlooked. Stanley rates out excellently in my model, he has decent course history, and he is coming in with great form. He will be a steal at anything less than 15% ownership.

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$9,300 Austin Cook

Cook will be under-owned this week because of his massive price-tag. People are not going to want to pay top dollar for a guy who was in the 7K range last week. He still only garnered 8% last week. Cook ranks top 15 in my model in putting gained, scoring gained, fairways gained, and birdie or better gained. At single digit ownership I love Lovemark’s upside

$8,000 Aaron Wise

Wise is hemorrhaging right now. He has been on the wrong side of 4 straight cuts, and now he looks to rebound at another course he has never played. People will still play Wise, hoping for another 1st place like at the Byron Nelson, but I expect his ownership to be mid-single digits. Wise stats out nicely in my model. He bombs it off the tee and he is an excellent putter. If he can gain strokes with his wedges this week, he can add another trophy to his mantle.

$6,900 Robert Garrigus

Garrigus fired a +10 in the first two rounds at the Greenbrier. That is going to dramatically depress his ownership. I cannot overlook his value here. He has solid course history (DQ, T22, T24) and he is one of the purest ball-strikers in the field.

Next: John Deere Classic - DRAFT DFS Rankings

Make sure to follow @Mystery_Main for up-to-date injuries, withdrawals, and ownership projections up until the tournament. And follow @FantasyCPR for your daily fantasy fix.