Pacquiao vs. Matthysse preview: Manny Pacquiao could retire Matthysse or himself
Manny Pacquiao and Lucas Matthysse are near the ends of their careers. A win could keep their boxing lives going. Here’s who has the edge.
Manny Pacquiao (59-7-2, 38 KOs) and Lucas Matthysse (39-4, 36 KOs) are in similar positions. They are former boxing greats who are nearing the end of their careers. Both men are on the dark side of 30, which is old in the boxing world. The loser could find themselves retiring after this bout.
According to the Sports Book Review, Manny Pacquiao is a slight betting favorite at -215 odds. It’s a bit shocking that the man who vanquished the likes of Miguel Cotto, Juan Manuel Marquez, Shane Mosley and other greats is only a slight favorite over Matthysse. If this fight took place eight years ago, Pacquiao would be a 10-1 favorite, but he’s aged.
Pacquiao is 39 years old. He’s coming off a 2017 loss to Jeff Horn. It was a controversial unanimous decision loss. Based on CompuBox stats, Pacquiao out-landed Horn 182-92. He led Horn in every statistical punching category. Horn received a hometown decision that he didn’t deserve, but it’s still a loss on Pacquiao’s resume.
Pacquiao took too many punches in the Horn fight. In Pacquiao’s prime, Horn wouldn’t have gone the distance. Pacquiao’s reflexes have slowed. He can’t dodge punches like he used to. He backs up straight when attacked. Pacquiao has lost the ability to move his shoulders and head defensively.
His punches are still fast and his footwork is tactical and skilled. Pacquiao can fight at a high level, but he will lose to the best competition out there. Fortunately for him, Matthysse is not the best in the welterweight division.
Matthysse has always been a good boxer, but not a great one. His punching power is special, but his technique is rudimentary. His best win was over Lamont Peterson in 2013. He knocked Peterson out in the third with a devastating left hook.
Despite his impressive knockout power, Matthysse has been out-boxed by most of the technical fighters he’s faced. His losses to Zab Judah, Devon Alexander and Danny Garcia were a result of his lack of polished boxing technique.
Viktor Postol knocked Matthysse out in 2015, but Matthysse has bounced back nicely. He’s on a two-fight winning streak. Those wins came against B-level fighters. Matthysse hasn’t fought an elite boxer since Postol.
Age is working against Matthysse too. He’s 35 years old. Matthysse punches continue to be powerful, but his hand speed is diminished. In his last fight, he struggled against unknown Tewa Kiram. His power bailed him out of trouble in the eighth when he knocked Kiram out.
Pacquiao and Matthysse are faded images of their former selves, but Pacquiao has the edge. Matthysse is 1 inch taller than Pacquiao and has a 2-inch reach advantage, but he’s not a seasoned welterweight. He’s only fought twice at the 147-pound limit.
Pacquiao is a small welterweight, but he’s used to the division. He’s fought regularly as a welterweight since 2009.
The biggest change for Pacquiao is that longtime trainer Freddie Roach won’t be in his corner. Pacquiao has elected to have Buboy Fernandez in complete charge of training duties. Buboy has been in Pacquiao’s corner for years, but he’s never been in charge of his training. It will be interesting to see if this change impacts Pacquiao’s performance.
The most likely outcome is a Pacquiao victory by decision. Matthysse is the WBA champion, but he’s not the best the division has to offer. Pacquiao’s hand speed, footwork and boxing IQ are superior to Matthysse’s, even at 39 years old.
Matthysse’s only chance at pulling an upset is to catch Pacquiao with a lucky punch and knock him out. That’s not expected. If Pacquiao wins, then Matthysse’s days as a top boxer are over.
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Even if Pacquiao wins, he’s in danger of being pushed into retirement. It all depends on how much damage he takes in this fight. If he walks away unscathed, then he has another big money fight left in him. If he takes an abundant amount of punishment, then he needs to quit before he gets seriously hurt. For Pacquiao, there’s nothing left to prove.