This Week in Stats: France and Croatia deliver crazy World Cup final
France have won the World Cup after beating Croatia 4-2 in the final. Did they deserve to win the match, and why wasn’t it low scoring as people predicted?
Sport doesn’t care about justice, and nor is it concerned with what you think might happen. Last week’s column suggested the 2018 World Cup final would be a close game. History implied it, and the form of the two teams did too. Yet France and Croatia shared six goals in a crazy match.
But did the right team win? You know, beyond the actual scoreline? Um, maybe. Just. But not by much. Croatia were the better team for probably the first hour or so, yet after 65 minutes they were 4-1 down.
It was the first half which will really have stung Zlatko Dalic and his side, though. They probably knew it wouldn’t be their day after the first goal. Antoine Griezmann won a highly dubious free-kick, and sent it into the box. Croatia were guilty of defending too deeply, but they were still unfortunate to see Mario Mandzukic become the first player to score an own goal in the World Cup final.
Social media was ablaze with people wondering why the apparent dive by Griezmann to win the free-kick couldn’t be reviewed by VAR. However, there are no reviews for fouls or dives outside the box. Sorry, Croatia. But not as sorry as you were that VAR is very much able to be used on soft handball calls.
The Balkan side conceded a corner in the 33rd minute. Three minutes later the referee awarded a penalty, and a further two minutes after that it was converted. Griezmann scored it, and earned himself a share of being joint-second top scorer in Russia. If Harry Kane can win the Golden Boot with three penalties and a lucky goal, it’s only fair that the French forward did likewise for the silver medal.
The spot kick was France’s only shot of the first half, and while Croatia didn’t create any excellent opportunities, they did at least have seven shots in the box.
At halftime France hadn’t created a chance, and had completed fewer final third passes than Luka Modric had for Croatia. Sport: not interested in justice.
Both halves ended 2-1 to France
The second half wasn’t any better from a Croatian perspective. Twenty minutes into it they were 4-1 down and the game was done. France had taken just six shots, and two of those were by Paul Pogba in the move for his goal.
It obviously is possible to score four times from six shots. Everton beat Manchester City 4-0 in January 2017 by doing exactly that. But it’s also very unlikely; teams scoring four goals, in the Premier League at least, average 17 shots. If you’re ever going to do it, the biggest match there is isn’t a bad place to start.
The final goal of the game went to Croatia, thanks to a horrendous error by Hugo Lloris. It was a similar mistake to one Loris Karius made in the Champions League final; what is it with L(l)oris?
“You can’t believe what you’ve just seen” said the commentator, who presumably has never seen Lloris play before. The Spurs goalkeeper made eight Opta-defined defensive errors which lead to shots last season, which was the most by any player in the Premier League.
Five resulted in goals too, so his gaffe on Sunday was hardly an isolated mistake. Yet he has won the World Cup and Karius will probably have to move clubs in order to rebuild his career. Where’s the justice, sport?
Next: The best player on every team at the World Cup
Were France worthy winners?
The headline here is a two-part question. Let’s start by addressing it in respect of the World Cup final. InfoGol gave the expected goals score as 1.2 vs. 1.1 in Croatia’s favor, and 73 percent of France’s tally came from a penalty which most pundits agreed should not have been given. The player analysis site Twelve had it as near enough a dead heat too.
However, while luck undoubtedly played a part in Les Bleus‘ victory, Croatia’s only clear-cut chance came about thanks to a ghastly goalkeeping error. The pre-match predictions of a low-scoring match in this column look foolish when it finished 4-2, yet the underlying statistics suggest there probably shouldn’t have been so many goals.
As for the tournament as a whole, France were definitely one of its better teams. They kept the most clean sheets (four) and only trailed for nine minutes across their seven matches. Only two teams scored more goals per game too.
One of those was Belgium, though, and Roberto Martinez’s side conceded the same number of goals as the French. The two European neighbors also had an identical expected goal difference across the tournament. France were clearly one of the better teams in Russia, but Belgium could make an equally strong case.
In a World Cup which will be remembered for the high number of set-piece goals, it’s probably fitting France knocked out Belgium with Samuel Umtiti’s header from a corner. However just France’s ultimate triumph was, they deservedly beat the other major contender when they had to. But it’s Croatia who I feel a little sorry for.