Buyer’s Beware 2018: PPR Fantasy RB Edition

Welcome to our four part series focusing on fantasy football players we want to avoid drafting this season based off their current ADP. Each article will respectively target each of the four major positions in fantasy football. In this installment, we will be listing and analyzing which running backs to heavily consider fading on draft day in 10 team PPR leagues.

With the fantasy football draft season upon us, it’s time for everyone to start to sure up their draft boards. One effective way of doing so is through process of elimination. Knowing which players you want to avoid will go a long way in building an optimal fantasy football team. By understanding where players are currently being drafted on average and assessing their value at that position will do wonders in making clear-cut decisions. Note all ADP references in this article are based from Fantasy Football Calculator. Also big thanks to Fantasy CPR contributor @SteveZimkouski of @GhostDFSpicks for assistance with this article. Without further ado, here are your top 4 running backs to “juke” away from in the 2018 season.

Lesean McCoy- Buffalo Bills

Current ADP – 3.04

We start off with Shady Mccoy, who we can all agree on might be a no brainer this season. Finishing as the overall RB7 in full point PPR last season, this choice clearly has nothing to do with volume or effectiveness on the field and everything to do with the potential legal issues which cloud his status. At this point you are all likely aware of the allegations that are hanging over McCoy and there’s no saying whether Mccoy will face any discipline from the NFL but there is enough risk here with off the field issues to give us pause in investing in him at all this year.

So it’s simple, with a gloomy cloud this big hanging over Mccoy’s head, it’s not worth it to be drafting him early in the 3rd round as potentially your RB1 or even RB2. Another thing worth noting, Lesean Mccoy ,30, is still an aging back who has had some durability issues in regards to amassing on the field injuries despite only missing one game the last two seasons. Bottom line at his current ADP, Lesean Mccoy is too risky to draft in a pivotal spot in drafts where highly productive yet still safer options are available.

PPR Fantasy RB to Avoid

 Derrick Henry- Tennessee Titans

Current ADP – 4.05

First off, Derrick Henry is an absolute beast. He averaged 4.2 ypc on 176 attempts while playing second fiddle to Demarco Murray for a good portion of the season. The discrepancy in talent level between the two allowed him to take the reins as lead back late in the season. Now, Demarco Murray is gone. Derrick Henry fans, rejoice. But this article isn’t based on standard fantasy scoring. Thus the offseason acquisition of Dion Lewis might prove to be highly concerning in drafting Henry early in the 4th round of PPR drafts. Dion Lewis is an elusive hybrid back who had 32 receptions for 214 yards in a crowded and untrustworthy Patriots backfield. Not to mention he was super effective in rushing as well with a 5.0 ypc on 180 attempts, collecting 9 total touchdowns.

Henry should primarily serve as the 1st and 2nd down back while Dion Lewis should have a stranglehold on all passing down situations. Titans OC Matt Lafleur even went as far as to label them “both as 1A and 1B”. Another important stat worth mentioning, among the top 20 PPR backs last season, only 1,Jordan Howard, had under 25 receptions on the year. FantasyPros currently has Henry projected at 21 receptions for the upcoming season. Factoring in all these points, it’s fair to say Derrick Henry won’t be in a bellcow role this season. Henry will prove to be highly volatile and touchdown dependent meaning he is a better target for the 6th-8th rounds as opposed to the early 4th.

Rashaad Penny- Seattle Seahawks

Current ADP – 4.09

The 2018 NFL draft provided the league with a ton of rich rookie RB talent. One of those dynamite rookies is Rashaad Penny, drafted by the Seattle Seahawks with the 27th pick in the 1st round from San Diego State University. Penny was a complete monster at the position on the collegiate level last year, rushing for 2,248 yards on 289 attempts and scoring 25 total touchdowns from scrimmage. Initial thinking would have the Seahawks immediately plugging in Penny as their three-down back after suffering from a lackluster running game ever since the departure of Marshawn Lynch. But hold your horses, the fantasy outlook of the Seahawks RB situation might be more complicated than people might perceive. The Seahawks really struggled on the ground last year, based off ESPN total team rushing statistics, the Seahawks finished 23rd in overall rushing, yet that’s not the most alarming stat. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson led the team in rushing with 586 yards, which means he accounted for 36 % of the Seahawks 1,629 total yards rushing. Take that all away, the Seahawks would rank dead last in rushing without Wilson’s scramble ability. Sure the Seahawks O-line should show improvement with the acquisition of D.J. Fluker and return of George Fant from injury, but that can only be evidenced by their play throughout the season.

One reason for hesitance in drafting Penny at his current ADP is the  uncertainty of their O-line play.  Pair that with the negative game scripts the Seahawks often found themselves in last year could limit the upside for the Seahawks RB corps as a whole. The second reason is two names, J.D. Mckissic and Chris Carson. Pete Carroll has already voiced he envisions Rashaad Penny as a three-down back. Although it seems like the Seahawks aren’t ready to commit to that idea yet due to Penny’s supposed struggles at pass protection. Meaning it’s possible J.D Mckissic, who led all Seattle running backs in the passing game with 34 receptions for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns, might be their primary passing down back. In a FantasyPros article by Jody Smith, it mentions “Bob Condatta of the Seattle Times wrote that he believes Chris Carson was the team’s best running back during OTAs and training camp and is the favorite to open the season as the team’s starter.” Chris Carson fared well in his brief stint as Seahawks starting RB in his rookie season before ankle and knee injuries derailed his season.

He showed flashes of being a highly effective runner with a 4.2 YPC on 49 attempts through a limited showcase of 4 games. Putting this all into consideration, it sounds more and more like the Seahawks look to impose a type of RB committee to start and maybe last throughout the season. Till’ Rashaad Penny evolves as a pass protector, I have no confidence in drafting him at his current ADP.

PPR Fantasy RB to Avoid

Kenyan Drake- Miami Dolphins

Current ADP – 5.04

So a lot of people are high on Kenyan Drake this year due to his strong finish last season and the perception that he’s going to be the Dolphin’s bellcow. Sure Drake amassed 444 rushing yards and 150 receiving yards in his last 5 games, but that might end up being more of an aberration than anything especially with Frank Gore and 4th round rookie Kalen Ballage in town. So the big question is Kenyan Drake who only had 133 carries last season, ready for 250 plus carries this season?

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The return of Frank Gore to the city of The U , tells us no.  Frank Gore, Mr. Old Reliable seems to be on his farewell tour in Miami, but that doesn’t mean he’s there to just be a bench warmer. Frank Gore has just enough left in the tank to compete for a substantial role in the Dolphins running game. Gore is coming off a 261 carry season with the Indianapolis Colts, so the Dolphins management must believe Gore will able to take some of the load off from Drake, who they might have some durability concerns with. Another concerning factor with drafting Drake is the potential of goal-line opportunities. Most will think Gore might challenge Drake for goal-line carries, but those touches might actually end up being conceded to 6’2 229lb rookie Kalen Ballage. Kalen Ballage is an absolutely physical specimen with an elite frame and ran a 4.46 40 at the combine. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Dolphins decide to use him in bruising short yardage situations and vulture multiple touchdowns throughout the season.

Another point to make is the Dolphins might be awful this year, due to a relatively weak roster and a C-minus offseason grade based off of ESPN Insider. Las Vegas currently has the Dolphins O/U at 6.5 which means they’re going to be down in a lot of games. Those negative game scripts usually don’t favor running backs and it still remains to be seen how effective Kenyan Drake can be in the passing game for the long haul despite showing some flashes of impressive receiving capabilities. Overall at his current ADP, Kenyan Drake should be a hard pass early in the 5th round due to non-guaranteed volume and potential for the Dolphins to institute a RBBC(Running Back By Committee).

Next: Fantasy Football Running Back Targets: Late Round PPR

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