DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, July 25

Welcome into the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have an early slate with eight games on it so let’s dig in.

Things got pretty sweaty at the end of the night. We were on cruise control in DFS MLB cash games until Khris Davis hit a three run bomb in extra innings. Thanks to the Texas bullpen on that one for blowing a 10-2 lead to lose 13-10. Then the Astros started going off in extras but we managed to hang on by the skin of our teeth, so I’ll take a win anyway it comes. Also, a memo to any managers reading this article(there’s probably a lot of them that do) – stop putting your pitch back out there when it’s clear they should be done for the night. Carlos Rodon was lights out through seven innings and has a spotty track record of staying healthy. He had no business going back out there for the eighth, and it had nothing to do with out lineup losing six points for no reason. Let’s get ready for some day baseball!

DFS MLB – Yankees at Rays

Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Cessa, RHP 

3.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate *15 IP*

Vs LHH – .150 average, .221 wOBA, 30.4 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 23.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .315 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 23.1 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Maybe people just look at the game logs and see Cessa put app 40 points in his last start and they’ll see Masahiro Tanaka dominated this lineup for a complete game shutout and be interested in Cessa. I will not be one of those players as I don’t trust Cessa at all and 40 points against the Orioles only counts for like 25 points. My favorite play from the Rays would be Jake Bauers, which seems to fly in the face of the splits for Cessa. Bauers is still hot and he rakes against righties. The strikeout rate is a touch concerning since Bauers is a lefty but his .270 ISO and a .375 wOBA help ally those fears. The xwOBA lines up as well at .386 against the two main pitches Cessa throws to lefties. As far as the righties go, you’d be looking towards C.J. Cron or Daniel Robertson. A word of caution though because Cessa throws his slider to righties over 50 percent of the time and those hitters have an xwOBA under .300 against that pitch.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Daniel Robertson

Rays Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

4.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 23.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .319 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .261 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

For the third straight day, I don’t think I’m forcing the Yankees into my lineup. If I do, it’ll be the lefty hitters for New York because of the splits. Didi Gregorius is going to be my favorite of the bunch since he has a .250 ISO and he looks solid against the four seam/ cutter combo which Eovaldi throws 74 percent of the time. Brett Gardner is also relatively solid at the top of the lineup and at a reasonable price. However, I usually only deploy him when I think the Yankees will score a ton of runs. I’m juts not sure if they will today. Since the slate is small, I’m going to give the Yankees some consideration but I’m willing to bet there are better spots as we go.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner

Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers

DFS MLB – Padres at Mets

Padres Probable Starter – Clayton Richard, LHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .291 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 7.4 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .334 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 25.4 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

If you’re playing on two pitcher sites, Richard should be in consideration for that spot. None of his metrics look spectacular but the Mets just flat-out aren’t very good against lefty pitching. They’re dead last in almost every major offensive category that we care about and Richard shuts down lefty hitters. That means Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are off the table for me. The pitch data doesn’t look good for the Mets at all. Only one of their active players has a xwOBA over .310 against the sinker/slider combo that Richard leans on, that being Jose Bautista. If you wanted to use him or Wilmer Flores as cheap plays, I understand. They’re just not my favorite plays with Richard barely giving up fly balls. I think the Mets hitters struggle in this one and Richard should hit at least 30 on FanDuel.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jose Bautista, Wilmer Flores

Mets Probable Starter – Corey Oswalt, RHP 

5.64 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .156 average, .262 wOBA, 15.5 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .273 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 20.0 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

I’m not saying I’m going to use him, but I truly can’t make heads or tails of Oswalt. His SIERA is down at 4.39, which would suggest he’s been pretty unlucky to this point in his short career. I’d be looking at mostly lefty hitters or possibly Wil Myers in this spot. Carlos Asuaje is a solid punt at second base if you need the salary as he carries a .330 wOBA against righty pitching so far this year. He doesn’t strike out at an extreme rate and Oswalt doesn’t strike out lefties so you feel pretty good about Asuaje getting the ball in play at least. I’m not the biggest proponent of using Eric Hosmer but his price is under $3,000 on FanDuel and Oswalt does give up fly balls to lefty hitters. Hosmer has a .156 ISO and a .355 xwOBA against the four seam, which Oswalt throws 46 percent of the time to lefty hitters. Travis Jankowski is also super cheap and has 13 stolen bases this year, so that upside is there every game.

Padres Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski, Carlos Asauje(more attractive as a stack)

Home Run Pick – Carlos Asuaje

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Phillies

Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP 

3.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .293 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .252 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 26.1 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

I’d love to play Buehler at his price tag but I’m not sure how safe he’ll be today. There’s a good cache he’s going to be on a pitch count, whether that means there’s a number or Dave Roberts decides he can’t get into the sixth inning. Buehler is talented and should be able to take advantage of the Phillies and their enormous strikeout rate against righties. If you wanted to get cute, I suppose you could play Rhys Hoskins. He has the highest ISO against righties among everyday players but even then, Buehler has given up all of one home run to righty hitters all season. If the Dodgers take the kids gloves off, he becomes the leader for the cash game pitcher. I just don’t expect that to happen so I’m likely out on this side of the game as a whole.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 16.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .321 wOBA, 16.6 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .287 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 23.7 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard hit rate

In my opinion, we have two of the biggest fraud starting pitchers in the league on the mound today. We’ll get to the other one in a bit but Arrieta might get knocked around here. He relies heavily on his sinker and I’m hoping against hope that Yasmani Grandal is in the lineup. I kind of doubt it since it’s a day game following a night game but he would be in a great spot if he does. Arrieta relies on his sinker over half the time to both sides of the plate and Grandal leads the Dodgers with an xwOBA of .729 against righty sinkers this year. Number two is Max Muncy at .529 and he’s also got a .339 ISO. Arrieta has down a good job at not giving up fly balls but today might be the exception. I’d be looking to stack the Dodgers in GPP’s though I’m not sure if I’m using anyone as a one-off. I think the Dodgers might put up runs but it may come via strings of hits as opposed to home runs.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yasmani Grandal(doubtful to play), Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Matt Kemp

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Reds

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP 

3.15 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 29.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .193 average, .268 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .304 wOBA, 34.9 K rate, 38.9 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

There are reasons to suspect that Flaherty is going to be the chalk today and I can’t find many reasons to disagree with that train of thought. The Reds should roll out at least three to four lefties, which could limit the strikeout ceiling for Flaherty. Even if that’s the case, lefty hitters really aren’t doing anything against him. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett both have a wOBA over .380 against righty pitching but the ISO is under .200. Flaherty has a strikeout rate so high against righties that I don’t think I’d consider Eugenio Suarez today, even though he saved our bacon last night. By the xwOBA metric, Votto is the only hitter over .400 against the fastball and slider mix for Flaherty. There’s serious questions about Votto’s power right now and I think I’m likely to eat the chalk in cash games with Flaherty today. It doesn’t hurt that the Reds have been terrible in the last two games against rookie pitchers.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jese Winker

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP 

5.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .377 wOBA, 14.9 K rate, 33.9 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .307 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Matt Carpenter was well over 80% owned last night in my cash games and he’s certainly in a great spot again today. All the way up at $4,400 has to give a little hesitation here. I’m still likely locking him in to cash games but I may fade him entirely in tournaments. To the surprise of nobody, Carpenter leads the Cardinals offense with a .404 wxOBA. Through his hot streak, Carpenter has raised his ISO to .295 and the wOBA is up over .400. Dexter Fowler has been awful by most measures but there are worse plays considering the splits Romano has. If you’re stuck at shortstop, punt it with Greg Garcia. He’s kind of in the same boat as Fowler. He’s not a good hitter but he’s a lefty so I’m moderately interested at near minimum price. You could definitely do a 7-8-1 stack with those three hitters today.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpernter

Secondary Options – Dexter Fowler, Grego Garcia

Home Run Pick – Greg Garcia

DFS MLB – Pirates at Indians

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP 

3.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .257 average, .323 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 31.2 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .268 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

We can continue to pound the Indians lefties in the hopes that we get one good game out of them.  To me, it’s astonishing that the Pirates pitchers have gone into this series and shut down a really good offense. Taillon is no different than the other members of the rotation – he throws a fastball and sinker combo often and he’s worse against lefties. I can’t imagine the Indians big guns carry any ownership after the past two days of let downs. Taillon has been much more consistent since introducing his slider so I think you just have to pick a lane here. In deep GPP’s, pitch Taillon and hope you get a 40 point effort at extremely low ownership. If you go Indians, I’d stack the top of the lineup in Franciso Lindor, Jose Ramirez or Michael Brantley and then take a bottom of the order hitter like Jason Kipnis or Tyler Naquin for the wrap around effect.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Tyler Naquin

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 31.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .263 wOBA, 31.0 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .223 average, .272 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Maybe the hottest offense in the majors will cool down at the hands of Bauer today. He was very average in his last start but those have been few and far between this year. I have no issues pitching Bauer at all, but will likely land on Flaherty more often today. A key factor is if Corey Dickerson plays for the Pirates. If he’s out after leaving last night with a minor leg injury, Bauer gets more attractive. Dickerson is one of the best hitters against righty curveballs, which is the second most used pitch for Bauer. Either way, I don’t want this side of the game all that much. The Pirates are due for a quite game so I’m going to pass on their offense. t the same time, they’ve been so hot that I don’t have the confidence in Bauer that I normally would.e’s more of a tournament play for today…just in case the Bucco bats aren’t done with them yet.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Corey Dickerson(if active)

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco

Home Run Pick – Michael Brantley

DFS MLB – Nationals at Brewers

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP 

4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .343 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 34.7 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .326 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

I think the Milwaukee offense might go a little overlooked even on a medium-sized slate. Roark has been getting smacked by lefties and there’s at least three that should scare you today. Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames all have wOBA’s over .365 and Thames at $3,000 is awfully appealing. He has a massive .314 ISO against righties, which trails only righty Jesus Aguilar for the team lead. Thames also smashes righty sinkers to the tune of .537 and he’s only $3,000 on FanDuel. Yelich would likely be the safest option for cash games due to his relatively safe floor.  Travis Shaw and his .280 ISO is awfully hard to turn away from at $3,200 as well. Picking the way too cheap third baseman was a big help yesterday so maybe we catch lightning in a bottle again.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Secondary Options – Jesus Aguilar

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

2.65 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 34.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .299 wOBA, 32.4 K rate, 42.5 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .081 average, .170 wOBA, 36.6 K rate, 54.3 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

I think there’s going to be some who get seduced by the strikeout rate of Peralta on a smaller slate. I get because the strikeout is king in daily fantasy. I’m willing to roster a strikeout artist even if I think they’ll give up a couple of runs but I have almost no interest in Peralta today. He throws the four seam fastball 77 percent of the time to lefties and the Nationals have four lefty hitters with an xwOBA of .369 or above on that pitch. Peralta can also get walk happy, which could lead to a bad start with one swing of the bat. Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy are perfectly fine cheap options but the main events are near the top of the pricing spectrum in Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. Soto has the higher wOBA but Harper has the higher ISO and is more likely to steal a base if he gets walked. This game looks like one we can target all the way around and a game stack might be in order.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Matt Adams

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy

Home Run Pick – Travis Shaw

DFS MLB – Tigers at Royals

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .288 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 45.1 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .299 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 45.0 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard hit rate

Very quietly, the Royals actually have a top 10 strikeout rate against lefty pitching this year. Their reputation in that department isn’t warranted and Boyd isn’t the worst pitcher on the planet. At just $6,500, he’s an attractive punt option to fit all of the bats. Kansas City also sits in the bottom 10 in ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against lefties. There’s only two hitters that look like they can give Boyd much of an issue and that’s Whit Merrifield and Jorge Bonifacio. Merrifield has always smashed lefty pitching but $3,700 is a touch high for my liking since all the hitter behind him aren’t that great. Bonifacio only has 19 at-bats against lefties but does have a .188 ISO and .399 wOBA. If these two are the big threats by the numbers, it becomes clear why Boyd could have a solid game.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Jorge Bonifacio

Royals Probable Starter – Danny Duffy, LHP 

4.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .272 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .340 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 46.4 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate

$3,100 for Nicholas Castellanos might be a bigger pricing mistake than Eugenio Suarez was yesterday. Am I guaranteeing that Castellanos will produce tonight? Of course not but there are very few lefty pitchers I wouldn’t use him against at this low of a price tag. Against lefty pitching this year, he has a 1.134 OPS, .260 ISO and a .476 wOBA. On top of those stats, he’s also carrying a .413 xwOBA against the fastball/changeup mix that is the majority of Duffy’s pitches to righties. If you needed any more convincing, Duffy has given up 18 home runs to righties, good for a 1.65 HR/9 mark this season. John Hicks, Jeimer Candelario and Niko Goodrum are all cheap and they all have a wOBA of at least .333 or over.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, John Hicks, Jeimer Candelario

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum

Home Run Pick – Nicholas Castellanos

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Cubs

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Robbie Ray, LHP 

5.37 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 31.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .259 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .383 wOBA, 31.2 K rate, 46.1 fly ball rate and 50.5 hard hit rate

Maybe the most volatile option on the slate is going to be in Wrigley today because Robbie Ray could score anywhere from -10 to 65 points. We’re going to need the lineup card from the Cubs today before we decide if we can pitch Ray. Chicago might be without Kris Bryant and Javier Baez due to various injuries. If both of those hitters are out, Ray becomes a bit more of a stable option. Losing those two would leave the Cubs lineup with only one hitter that has an ISO over .175 against lefties in Willson Contreras. Ray isn’t having a good year but he’s only $7,200 on FanDuel. That truly does feel too cheap and the path will be easy to figure out once we know who’s playing.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

3.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .355 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 40.3 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .298 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

I don’t know what I feel more right now – anger at the fact we missed out last Friday when Lester got kicked on the face for eight earned runs or glee that we get our crack at him today. His FIP and xFIP are both over 4.50 and his SIERA is approaching 5.00. Guys, he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers you can possibly imagine so far this year. My absolute favorite play of the entire slate is the three-man stack of Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock and Ketel Marte. Those are the three best hitters Arizona can offer against lefty pitching and it’s pretty affordable to pull that one-off. Marte has a .276 ISO and the other two hitters are over .300 in the same metric. Goldy really stands out with his xwOBA of .580 against the four seam/cutter mix that Lester throws. If you wanted to throw in a fourth man, consider Steven Souza or Nick Ahmed. Lester is in a very dangerous spot against this team. He’d better hope the wind is blowing in today at Wrigley.

Diamondbacks Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Ketel Marte

Secondary Options – Steven Souza, Nick Ahmed

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Jack Flaherty  

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C/1B – Paul Goldschmidt

2B – Ketel Marte 

3B – Travis Shaw

SS – Greg Garcia 

OF – Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich, A.J. Pollock 

Utility – Nicholas Castellanos 

If everyone winds up playing today, I love this lineup at the first glance. Flaherty is likely the chalk but if Ray gets a favorable lineup, he’s $200 less and an easy pivot. I’m practically locking in the Arizona three-man stack. I firmly believe that the second half is going to prove Lester isn’t very good at this point in his career and those three smash lefties in a major way. I think Marte might fly under the radar as well. We’ll take a two-man stack of Milwaukee lefties next and you can go three-man easily if you swap Castellanos for Thames. I just have such a hard time leaving Casty out against a lefty that has given up bombs to righties. We’ll punt shortstop so we can fit in Harper, who is flat-out cheap for this matchup. If you really hate it, you could just pivot to Juan Soto.

The Core – Arizona stack, Travis Shaw

Pitchers to Consider 

High End – Trevor Bauer

Mid-Range – Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray

Punts – Matt Boyd, Clayton Richard

Stacks to Consider – Arizona Diamondbacks, Brewers/Nationals game stack, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.