DraftKings Early MLB Picks July 25: Is Bauer overpriced again?

PHILADELPHIA, PA – MAY 13: Rain falls on the on deck circle during a rain delay before a game between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on May 13, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks July 25: Is Bauer overpriced again?

We have eight early games on our Getaway Day, making this one of the few Wednesdays where we have a pretty even split. There are some intriguing arms out there today, but the top and middle tier are thin. We have been playing down on pitchers lately. Is this another day to do the same? Let’s check it out!

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Rain is very likely in New York and Philly again. It never drops under 50% for either location even into the evening hours, so there is a good chance of delays and/or postponements here. As of now, the pitchers are too risky, but bats may still be in play, especially in Citi Field where the wind is blowing out to left at 16 mph. Wind is also blowing out to left in Philly, but only at 11 mph.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

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PHOENIX, AZ – JULY 03: Starting pitcher Jack Flaherty #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on July 3, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Trevor Bauer ($13,400): Ownership could be down on Bauer because of what the Rangers did to him on Friday, and it should be. Especially when you consider how well the Pittsburgh offense has been hitting lately. They have a DH and a park upgrade, so this offense is getting their licks in. Bauer has been impressive this year, especially at home, but I can’t see myself paying a nearly $4,000 premium of the next pitcher, even on a short slate. It seems more beneficial to load up on Cleveland hitters.

Freddy Peralta ($9,500): I’m on the fence about Peralta here. He has a 0.69 ERA in two home starts, but those were against Atlanta and Kansas City. The Nationals are better than both. The 50 strikeouts in 37.1 big league innings this year are raising Peralta’s price, but there is significant chance for a blowup here. The Nationals are a good offense. However, if you have the money in a GPP, the strikeout potential is very high on Peralta. Even if he does give up three or four runs, a solid game score is pretty likely. However, it’s not what you’ll want for this price point.

Jack Flaherty ($9,000): Flaherty picked up 18.3 DraftKings points against the Reds earlier this year, allowing just two hits in five innings. There is certainly potential here, but this ballpark is also conducive to offense like Flaherty found out last year. He gave up two runs in two innings of relief there. Flaherty’s numbers speak for themselves this year, but the issue I have here is that Flaherty is not going deep into games. He has only made it past the fifth once since June 22nd. That limits his potential, so I’m inclined to think the price is too high with the risk involved.

Middle Tier:

Jake Arrieta ($8,000): It’s a shame that the Philly game is such a risk. Arrieta has been outstanding at home, and the Dodgers are only hitting .108 off of him in 65 at bats. If this game does play without much threat of delay, I’m using Arrieta. There aren’t many bats that I’m a fan of in this game anyway, but I’m a huge fan of Arrieta if they can get this one in.

Danny Duffy ($7,700): Duffy has 79.3 DraftKings points over his last three starts, so I think it’s safe to say that he has turned a corner. Of course, the competition hasn’t been great, but neither are the Tigers. Duffy did struggle against the Tigers earlier this year, but I could argue that the Twins and White Sox are better offensively than the Tigers right now. I like Duffy in this range, especially if Philly gets rained out.

Robbie Ray ($7,300): I’m going to come right out and say this: Ray is WAY underpriced. To have this kind of strikeout potential on someone who is nearly an ace at this price is absurd. Ray got thumped by the Rockies in his last outing, but he held them to two runs in Coors. This home/road split thing is real. Ray has a 2.89 ERA in six road starts this year. The Cubs are also hitting just .130 off of him in 23 at bats with eight strikeouts. Ray has by far the most upside compared to price on the entire slate.

Bargain Pitchers:

Nathan Eovaldi ($6,500): Eovaldi, like most other Rays pitchers, has been much better at home. He boasts a 2.12 ERA in three home starts compared to 5.18 on the road. Eovaldi struggled against the Yankees in New York, but still ended up with double digit DraftKings points because of the strikeouts. The strikeout potential on a truncated slate at this low of a price at least makes Eovaldi worth the risk. This is a tough matchup, but he is priced accordingly. Eovaldi has the greatest potential in this tier.

Luis Cessa ($6,300): Cessa has pitched well against the Rays in relief over his career, allowing only four hits in 19 at bats (.211) with a homer and three runs. There is risk involved here since the Tampa offense is doing well right now, especially at home. Cessa has decent numbers all over the place, which could be enough for this price on a truncated slate. This is a GPP play only though because of the high volatility and probability of low ownership.

MILWAUKEE, WI – JULY 24: Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers is congratulated by Lorenzo Cain #6 following a two run home run against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning of a game at Miller Park on July 24, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tanner Roark:

Roark has actually been better on the road than at home, but at this point, I’m not sure it matters. In his last two starts before the break, Roark gave up eight runs combined against the Mets and Marlins. This Milwaukee offense is much better than both of those. Christian Yelich has scored eight runs in just 33 at bats against Roark. Brad Miller is cheap, and is 5-6 with two doubles and three runs against Roark. I also like Shaw, Thames, Jesus Aguilar, and Lorenzo Cain here. The best part? None of them top the $5,000 threshold, so they are a pretty affordable stack if we fade Bauer.

Kansas City Royals vs. Matt Boyd:

Yes, the Royals. Boyd has a 9.11 ERA in six career starts at Kauffman Stadium. Add that to his 5.77 road ERA this year, and we have a very affordable stack option for this afternoon. Whit Merrifield will set us back the most at $4,100, but he is 7-16 with four RBI against Boyd, so he should be worth it. Salvador Perez has two homers and six RBI against Boyd, and will likely DH today. Moose has a homer and four RBI, despite not having the platoon advantage. Alcides Escobar is 8-21(.381) with three RBI, and comes very cheap. Add in Mondesi or Bonifacio, and we have a nice, affordable stack!

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jon Lester:

Lester has been pretty good this year, so what gives? Well, he has allowed 11 runs over his last two starts, and one of those was against the Padres. He has also struggled against Arizona, allowing a .338 average with three homers and 12 runs in just 77 at bats. This one could go sideways since Lester has been pretty good in Wrigley this year, but man, that Cardinals game is still stuck in my head. They lit him up for eight runs in just three innings. Souza, Nick Ahmed, and Goldy have the homers against Lester. Pollock is 5-15 off of Lester, but with nothing to show for it. Ketel Marte looks pretty good here as well.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 27: Hunter Renfroe #71 of the San Diego Padres, right, is congratulated Wil Myers #4 after hitting a grand slam during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at PETCO Park on September 27, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Corey Oswalt has struggled this year, but has been markedly better at home. That said, the wind is blowing strong out to left and there is a lot of right handed power in this lineup. Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe are definitely worth a look if this game plays.

The Cardinals offense has been quiet enough through the first games of this series that I’m not all that gung ho about a stack anymore, even against Sal Romano. The Cards have hit Romano hard, and Romano has not pitched well at home. I do want some exposure here, but it seems prudent to limit it to the hot hitting Matt Carpenter and Marcell Ozuna, who is the only Cardinal to homer against Romano so far. However, Yadier Molina and Jose Martinez have a combined five RBI in six at bats against Romano.

I’m a fan of Jameson Taillon, but not against an explosive offense on the road. I’m not sure it’s prudent to stack against a pitcher like Taillon, but Lindor and the red hot Jose Ramirez are in play here.

If you want to use Javier Baez against a lefty in Wrigley, I’m certainly not going to talk you out of it. Same goes for Bryant. I still expect a good game out of Ray though.

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Middle Tier:

It was Didi Gregorius that homered off of Nate Eovaldi in Yankee Stadium earlier this year. I am interested in him again since he is 5-9 against Eovaldi. Greg Bird is worth a look as well, but I’m not sure Judge and Stanton are worth the price. Judge is more than Stanton, and at $4,900, I expect Judge’s ownership to be pretty high.

I think some are going to see the name Clayton Richard and jump since he is playing the Mets. I wont be one of them. The Mets are hitting .288 with four homers and 11 runs in just 66 at bats. Lefty killer Wilmer Flores has homered twice off of Richard so far. Bautista and Jose Reyes have homered off of him as well. I’m not sure how exposed I want to get here, but Flores is a lock for me, and Bautista is tempting.

Carlos Gomez has the only homer against Luis Cessa, but my Rays exposure is mostly going to be in the form of lefties like Kiermaer and Jake Bauers.

Jesse Winker homered off of Jack Flaherty last year in Cincinnati. Can he do it again? Scooter and Votto are worth a look as well, but you can likely do better for the price. I don’t expect a blowup from Flaherty.

I’m not using Ervin Santana in his first start of the season, but I’m not really going after him with the Blue Jays either. This offense just isn’t all that good. However, Curtis Granderson is 13-54(.241) with five homers and nine RBI against Santana, so he is worth a look.

Bargain Shoppers:

If you are in the minority that’s going after Duffy today, make sure you have Victor Martinez. V-Mart is 16-42(.381) with three homers and six RBI against Duffy. Castellanos also has two homers and eight RBI for a reasonable price.

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