DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, July 28

Welcome in to the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a larger than normal 11 game slate on hand so let’s go to work!

You know who I don’t like? David Freese, that’s who I don’t like. Of all the cheap Pirates bats, that’s the one I didn’t have in DFS MLB and he doubled up Nolan Arenado in points for like half the price. Oh, he was highly owned in cash too so that was a blast to not have him. I also played Josh Harrison over Lourdes Gurriel to the tune of almost 35 points difference so my hometown team did their best to kick me in the head last night. Sometimes that’s going to happen and we’re ready to figure out the magic mix tonight!

DFS MLB – Mets at Pirates

Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP 

1.71 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 30.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .266 wOBA, 30.3 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .175 average, .217 wOBA, 31.4 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

There might be a slight concern that the Pirates don’t strike out enough to play deGrom tonight. Only the Red Sox have a lower strikeout rate but they usually don’t have to face the ace from New York. There’s a small chance that this is the last start for deGrom in a Mets uniform(not likely, but a chance). I fully believe that the Pirates lineup won’t be a huge threat to deGrom tonight and we saw this week what an elite pitcher can do when Trevor Bauer of the Indians struck out double digit hitters. Granted, that lineup was full of bench players but this is basically a long winded way of saying that I expect deGrom to dominate and be well worth his price. Lefty hitters like Gregory Polanco or potentially Corey Dickerson could be a GPP shot in the dark. It just doesn’t seem likely against an N.L. Cy Young candidate. There’s also a Coors game that might push me off deGrom tonight.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson(if active)

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 16.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .236 average, .300 wOBA, 10.9 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .307 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Having traded Asdrubal Cabrera last night, this Mets lineup is going to be weaker. Anytime I try to pitch Williams, I never seem to get him right but this could be a decent spot to try him. The lefties are where we want to go here and I think Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto might be the best options. Nimmo has been coming back to Earth and Conforto hit a bomb last night. Nimmo also has the edge in pitch data with a .380 xwOBA against righty fastballs, which Willliams throws a little over 50 percent of the time. If we’re looking at the pitch data, the best play would be righty Jose Bautista. He’s carrying a .436 xwOBA against the four seam and sinker. The .202 ISO doesn’t;t hurt either.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto

Secondary Options – Jose Bautista

Home Run Pick – Brandon Nimmo

DFS MLB – Rays at Orioles

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

As of this writing, we don’t know the plan for the Rays. It appears like it’s going to be a bullpen day and this comes a night after they hung 11 on the pen. Now, eight of them came from Austin Pruitt so it’s not like the Rays blew through relievers. Jonathan Schoop maintained his hot streak last night and after a massive outburst last night, maybe some of the Orioles offense has been better than I’ve been giving them credit for lately. Until we get an idea of the plan, we won’t know exactly who to go to for the Orioles. I’ll do my best to give an update tomorrow on Twitter.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Orioles Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP 

4.54 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .332 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .294 average, .353 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 31.0 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Gausman has been running cold lately but there’s a chance he could reverse that course tonight. The Rays main hitter against righty pitching that’s also righty is C.J. Cron. He’s the only righty hitter that has an ISO over .200, a solid xwOBA of .371 against the two main pitches for Gausman and a solid wOBA of .339. Jake Bauers could be used as well since he’s the team leader in ISO and wOBA against righty pitching. However, Gausman has been better against lefty hitters to some extent. It’s a bigger slate so we’ll bookmark the Rays offense. They don’t stand out as an elite play, but Gausman is pretty far from being trustworthy.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – C.J. Cron, Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – Daniel Robertson, Ji-Man Choi

Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Braves

Dodgers Probable Starter – Alex Wood, LHP 

3.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .268 wOBA, 241. K rate, 19.3 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .296 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 33.7 fly ball rate and 41.3 hard hit rate

Wood is in a pretty solid groove right now, having logged a quality start in six straight games. That seems like a lot for a pitcher like Wood, who has had his share of injures. The question really comes from if you’re willing to use him or not in a tough matchup. Atlanta is in the top five in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against lefty pitching. That didn’t stop them from getting smoked by Rich Hill or Clayton Kershaw the past couple of days, but it’s still important to note. The fly balls against lefties gives me some pause because Wood has yet to give up a home run to lefties. That eliminates Freddie Freeman as anything but a deep GPP option. I’d be fine playing whoever catches between Tyler Flowers or Kurt Suzuki, since both have an ISO of at least .233 against lefties. Ronald Acuna has been up and down all year and his price is high, so I’m a little iffy on him. Johan Camargo has a higher xwOBA, ISO and wOBA against lefties than Ozzie Albies and is  $1,200 cheaper.

Braves Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Johan Camargo, whichever catcher is in the lineup

Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies

Braves Probable Starter – Max Fried, LHP 

3.92 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 28.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .182 average .359 wOBA, 44.4 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .337 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 16.2 hard hit rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Most people are going to see “Dodgers” and run. Honestly, that’s probably the most reasonable reaction but let’s take a look here. The Dodgers aren’t as good against lefties as the perception might be. They rank 24th in average, 17th in slugging and OPS, 10th in ISO, 18th in wOBA and 16th in wRC+. That’s mostly just average and the pitch data could show some potential as well. Fried is a four seam/curve pitcher for the most part. Matt Kemp, Max Muncy and Chris Taylor have xwOBA’s of .621, .534 and .469 respectively. Manny Machado obviously lurks as well which makes the task even tougher for Fried. After that, the next highest is Yasmani Grandal at .313. Those four hitters are all elite options but if Fried can control those three hitters, there is upside in this game. I wouldn’t be worried about how many innings he can throw since he went 6.2 in his last rehab start. The odds are the Dodgers hitters win this matchup but you can take a shot in GPP’s with Fired and jam in all of the bats you want. Just keep in mind the odds are low at success.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor, Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Kike Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Chris Taylor

DFS MLB – Twins at Red Sox

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.37 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .367 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 49.6 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .318 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 46.9 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

The Sox have disappointed two nights in a row and the Coors game is much more attractive for hitters tonight. That means a lot of players won’t be on them tonight. Andrew Benintendi is under $4,000 for the first time that I can remember and he draws a pitcher that has given up 10 home runs to lefties already. Odorizzi is giving up a fly ball almost 50 percent of the time and that’s a scary thing for a pitcher in Fenway Park. Benintendi walks almost as much as he strikes out, which should help raise his floor. He also has a .443 xwOBA, .221 ISO and .406 wOBA. Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland would both be fine options as well, Keep an eye on Moreland as he’s listed as day to day right now with a knee issue. I would never talk you out of playing Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez, even though technically the matchup favors lefty hitters.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland(if active)

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP 

3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .241 average, .318 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .298 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 25.2 hard hit rate

Man, it would have been nice to use Eduardo Escobar tonight but the Twins had to go and trade him to the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. Porcello has given up nine home runs to lefties in total but has given seven of them at home. That falls in line with a .290 average and .390 wOBA to south paw hitters in Fenway this year. Jorge Polanco is a great option at shortstop tonight even though he doesn’t have the highest power upside. He’s simply too cheap for the matchup. If you wanted to spend a little more, Eddie Rosario has the be on the radar. He now has the highest ISO of any Twins hitters against righties. I think Miguel Sano is going to be a chalk hitter but I’m not sure how much of a piece of that I want. Porcello is tougher on righties even though the strikeout rate is lower. Sano is minimum price so a goose egg doesn’t crush you but I wouldn’t be looking at Sano in any other situation.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Secondary Options – Max Kepler, Miguel Sano

Home Run Pick – Andrew Benintendi and Eddie Rosario

DFS MLB – Rangers at Astros

Rangers Probable Starter – Ariel Jurado, RHP 

*4.2 Innings Pitched* 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 9.1 strikeout rate

We don’t know a lot about Jurado but what we do know doesn’t appear that it will end well for him tonight. He carries a very low strikeout rate and has all the way through the minors. Pitching to contact against Houston is not the best plan of attack and he could easily get rocked in this matchup. He’s a sinker baller and Evan Gattis stands out again. He’s dirt cheap, has a .232 ISO and carries a .509 xwOBA against righty sinkers. Alex Bregman is the next best option via the pitch data and about the same ISO and a higher wOBA than Gattis. He’s also $1,800 more expensive so some might find themselves in a salary crunch and side with Gattis. I may seem odd, but there’s not a hitter that jumps off the page by the measurements. I still fully expect the Astros to hammer Jurado and I think they’re one of the better offenses to stack. It’s just a matter of who you want to play and what fits into the budget. There’s probably not a terrible play on Houston tonight.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Secondary Options – Anyone else you want to stack

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.19 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 33.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .177 average, .263 wOBA, 35.4 K rate, 55.6 fly ball rate and 27.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .190 average, .233 wOBA, 31.2 K rate, 52.8 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

This will already be the fifth time that Verlander has faced the Rangers so I suppose he’s a little risky just because the offense has seen him a good bit. However, he hasn’t scored less than 40 points in any of those four starts. An 11 game slate doesn’t feel like the spot to try and pick on Verlander at home, although with his fly ball rate there’s a little bit of danger to any start. My initial lean is to play deGrom ahead of Verlander if I decide to pay up for pitching. I still think there’s a pitcher that is cheaper with some major upside that will allow me some extra bats. I won’t have Rangers tonight.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Shin-soo Choo

Home Run Pick – Alex Bregman

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at White Sox

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

Luis Santos might be the starter in name, but he won’t last very long. The Jays traded J.A. Happ to the Yankees so they’re just going to ride the pen today. Avisail Garcia might be the one hitter that I would consider in this spot. Hitters like Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka and Tim Anderson are all matchup dependent but the numbers. It really hurts these hitters that we can’t fully predict what kind of pitcher they’ll be facing. If we get word about Santos going long or a certain long man out of the pen, we’ll adjust accordingly. As of now, I’m probably passing on the White Sox tonight.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, Tim Anderson

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP 

6.09 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 13.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .383 wOBA, 9.8 K rate, 45.8 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .322 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

I’m going to be clear that I would still want some Blue Jays lefties on a normal slate but Giolito has very quietly put together three quality starts in his last four games. This is a pitcher that had pedigree and hype when he was in the minors so maybe he’s starting to put some things together. The danger for him in this spot is he’s throwing his four seam fastball 51 percent of the time. Four hitters for the Blue Jays that will hit lefty have an xwOBA of at least .420. Of those four, the lowest ISO among them is the .190 of Curtis Granderson. Among hitters with at least 40 at-bats, Dwight Smith Jr. leads the team in ISO and wOBA. He’s also just $2,100 and I would much rather play him than Miguel Sano for an extra $100. Kendrys Morales is a solid option but his price feels steep at $,200. Finding the extra $300 for Justin Smoak seems like the better play. It’s not the craziest idea to stack all four of these hitters but just remember Giolito has gotten better results lately.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Dwight Smith Jr., Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Options – Kendrys Morales, Curtis Granderson, Lourdes Gurriel

Home Run Pick – Dwight Smith Jr.

DFS MLB – Nationals at Marlins

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

3.94 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .243 wOBA, 30.7 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 25.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .341 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

You’d have to be pretty gutsy to play Gonzalez tonight, even against the Marlins. I have no idea why he’s gone off the rails so badly as this was a guy who’s perfomed like a borderline ace in the past. The weird part is there’s no real standout among the Marlins hitters. Martin Prado is a punt option but it’s hard to get too excited for his .030 ISO. I’m not sure I want to pay $3,000 for Brian Anderson either. If there is a hitter that I want, it’s J.T. Realmuto. His stats don’t look good against lefties this year as he’s rocking a .276 wOBA. Gonzalez has been so bad lately that I’d be fine taking a shot.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options – Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro, Martin Prado

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

4.41 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .194 average, .264 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .317 average, .390 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 50.0 fly ball rate

Richards has pitched a career 69.1 innings and his splits are quite poor so far. He throws his four seamer at least 53 percent to each side of the plate and the xwOBA’s for the Nationals against that pitch look fantastic. The righties in Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner both have an xwOBA of at least .435 against righty fastballs so far this season and both of these players are wonderful options. We don’t often see Turner at $3,600 and that’s extremely appealing. The lefty hitters for the Nats could be the ones that break the splits here. They all look very good from the xwOBA perspective. I’m just not sure I’ll pay up for Juan Soto or Bryce harper given all the other options.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner

Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton

Home Run Pick – J.T. Realmuto

DFS MLB – A’s at Rockies

A’s Probable Starter – Brett Anderson, LHP 

5.46 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 13.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .358 wOBA, 5.4 K rate, 20.7 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .355 average, .409 wOBA, 16.3 K rate, 30.7 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

Come on FanDuel. You have to make it a little more difficult to roster Nolan Areando, Trevor Story and Ian Desmond against a poor lefty at home. Desmond isn’t even over $4,000 and Arenado is under $5,000. Those are the three best hitters against lefties on the team by a good margin and I think at least two of these hitters might be more important than an ace pitcher tonight. This could be a spot where you can add in Charlie Blackmon in a four man stack or to differentiate on a three man stack. By the numbers, there is no way Anderson should be able to survive this start at all.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story

Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Rockies Probable Starter – Antonio Senzatela, RHP 

5.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .316 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .315 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 27.9 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

If I don’t roll out a three man Rockies stack, it might be because I want to run the game back with an Oakland hitter or two. Senzatela has been wildly better at home this year in a small sample size. His ERA is basically double on the road but he’s also pounding his fastball to both sides of the plate and the A’s have six relatively everyday hitters with an xwOBA over .400 against that pitch. I want to play Khris Davis but I’m not sure quite how feasible that would be unless we just played Arenado and Krush together with no other Coors hitters. Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty and Matt Chapman are all in the running and this is a lineup that I really don’t mind using as much as I can. It’s just a matter of budget on this one.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman

Secondary Options -Mark Canha, Chad Pinder

Home Run Pick – Ian Desmond and Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Padres

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 30.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .359 wOBA, 27.9 K rate, 21.2 fly ball rate and 44.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .192 average, .237 wOBA, 31.4 K rate, 29.1 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

Corbin has completely shut down righty hitters this year and I’m wondering which type of metric wins out tonight. Christian Villanueva, Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe are all lefty mashers but they do bat righty. They all hit for power, especially the former two who have ISO’s over .345. I’m going to put my money on Corbin here. I know he’s had some down games but some sacrifices are going to have to be made if you want a big piece of Coors tonight. At a guess, Corbin will be very popular in cash games and maybe even in tournaments. Throwing up a 55 point performance in Wrigley Field last start is bound to catch some eyes. If it feels like Corbin will be chalk, a nice leverage play could be the three hitters we discussed in a three man stack. Those would be the only Padres I would have in mind tonight.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Three Man Stack

Padres Probable Starter – Tyson Ross, RHP 

4.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .292 average, .369 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 23.3 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .169 average, .253 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

It’s pretty clear you want the lefties here and I’m really bummed that Jake Lamb landed on the disabled list yesterday. The two most attractive options are Daniel Descalso and David Peralta. Descalso should see more time in the lineup so I’d feel comfortable saying he’ll play tonight. Peralta had the night off last night so that’s another safe bet. The pitch data is fine but nothing special. They both have an ISO over .200 and wOBA’s over .360 and would make a nice mini stack. If you really want to get a little crazy, Alex Avila could be a punt that nobody would play. In a minuscule six at-bats, Avila does have a .466 xwOBA, good for ninth highest on the slate. I’ve used Ross in the past but wouldn’t try him tonight even though he’s got the park factor in his favor and the lineup might have a good bit of righties in the lineup.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Peralta, Daniel Descalso

Secondary Options – Jon Jay, Alex Avila

Home Run Pick – Daniel Descalso

DFS MLB – Brewers at Giants

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .264 average, .337 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 33.5 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .181 average, .242 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

I’d be lying if I said I was really too interested in this game overall. There’s only a couple lefties for the Giants that I could get behind as GPP options and I really wish Brandon Belt was one of them. Since he’s on the disabled list, there’s three hitters left. Steven Duggar and Chase d’Arnaud are lefty hitters but the pitch data for both of them are awful. Brandon Crawford does look a lot better and $3,000 isn’t a terrible price but he’s only carrying a .143 ISO in a poor hitting environment. It’s not a spot for me to attack.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Starter – Johnny Cueto, RHP 

2.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .225 average, .298 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .202 average, .294 wOBA, 21.0 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Cueto has been pretty poor since he came back from a long stint on the disabled list and you can’t trust him tonight against a powerful offense. He’s way worse at home against lefties than he is on the road so Travis Shaw, Eric Thames and Christian Yelich are all in the player pool tonight. Yelich has hammered Cueto in there meetings so far in their careers with a .652 xwOBA. Does he have the power to leave the park in San Francisco? That’s debatable in and of itself but his price of $4,400 is a total non-starter for me. I can play Krush in Coors Field in a great matchup for $200 more. I would be more interested in Shaw and Thames if I had to play anyone from this game since the have ISO’s of at least .280. Those two hitters are elite tournament options but I’m probably not going there in cash.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw(GPP)

Secondary Optons – Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar

Home Run Pick –  Travis Shaw

SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 20: Mitch Haniger #17 of the Seattle Mariners hits a solo home run off of starting pitcher Andrew Cashner #54 of the Texas Rangers during the third inning of a game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Mariners at Angels

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .346 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 41.1 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .330 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 28.2 fly ball rate and 40.1 hard hit rate

This might not be the best spot for Hernandez. The Angels offense has been running hot and King Felix isn’t striking out too many hitters. If some of these Angels hitters are making contact, it might not end well for Seattle. Mike Trout is always in play and then we have Shohei Ohtani who is just mashing righty pitching. He has a 1.022 OPS, .427 wOBA and a .322 ISO. The young man is a legitimately great hitter through is first 133 at-bats against righties. The funny thing is he’s cheaper than Kole Calhoun. Now, Calhoun has been white hot since he came back from the disabled list and changing his batting stance. Calhoun also hit a walk-off home run last night. Andrelton Simmons is always a solid cash option because he just doesn’t strike out, ever. He has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball among hitters with at least 50 at-bats.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons(elite cash game play), Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler

Angels Probable Starter – Jaime Barria, RHP 

3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .202 average, .249 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .288 average, .398 wOBA, 15.9 K rate, 45.8 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

If you want the late night hammer to wield like the mighty Thor, God of Thunder after the Coors game ends, we have a two man stack that could be the Mjolnir of the Saturday night slate. Barria is getting steam rolled by righty hitters and it just so happens that two of the Seattle Mariners have the highest xwOBA against a pitcher on the slate. The first hitter on the list is Mitch Haniger and his .934 xwOBA against Barria. That’s worth taking with a grain of salt in just six at-bats but he does have two home runs in those at-bats. The pitch data backs this conclusion up with Haniger’s .459 xwOBA against righty four seams and sliders. On top of it all, Haniger leads the Mariners in ISO and wOBA against righty pitching among regular players. Nelson Cruz has a lot of very similar numbers but the pitch data doesn’t look quite as good. I feel a little more comfortable with Haniger because I usually reserve Cruz for lefty pitchers. This could be an exception and I’d try to stack them here.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Options – Jean Segura, Ryon Healy

Home Run Pick – Mitch Haniger

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Patrick Corbin 

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C/1B – Ian Desmond 

2B – Daniel Descalso

3B – Nolan Arenado

SS – Jorge Polanco 

OF – Dwight Smith Jr., Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz 

Utility – Miguel Sano 

If we’re playing cash tonight, it’s probably a solid idea to re-work the Mariners mini stack to include Story at shortstop or some A’s hitters. As things stand, I like Corbin enough. The pitchers that are cheaper all carry some significant risk, more so than Corbin at San Diego. We take Desmond and Arenado as our two Coors hitters. It still feels like it’s not enough but that would be true if I had a four man stack. Descalso is a fine one-off given the slate, as is Smith Jr. I don’t have any strong desire to include Sano tonight but he does let me get to just about everything else that I would want. It’ll wind up helping that Polanco should bat close to him and maybe we get lucky with Sano. We’re topping off the lineup by using the Mariners Mjolnir to smash up the leaderboards late.

The Core – Rockies righties, Mitch Haniger

Pitchers to Consider 

High End – Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander

Mid-Range – Patrick Corbin, Jhoulys Chacin

Punts – Max Fried, Trevor Williams

Stacks to Consider – Coors Field, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.