DraftKings MLB Picks August 4: Is Paxton worth the markup?

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – MAY 14: The grounds crew for Target Field covers home plate as rain delays the start of the game between the Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners on May 14, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks August 4: Is Paxton worth the markup?

DraftKings Ginsued the slate again today with the Yankees/Red Sox tilt at 3:05 being included in both the early and afternoon contests. I wont be breaking that down because it looks like they are going to have a lot of trouble getting that game in. That would nullify not one, but BOTH slates. DraftKings likely should have put all three games before 7 eastern in one tournament and called it good, but it is what it is. That still leaves us 12 games (for now) in the main DraftKings tournament. I’m half expected the second game of the Reds-Nats double dip to be pulled, but for now it’s still in there.

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The only night game that is really threatened by rain is in Minneapolis. If the game is quick, they may even get it in before the rain starts. However, SP’s should be safe since the rain wont show up until later.

We have wind blowing out to left at 16 mph in Minneapolis, so the runs could go up there. The wind is blowing straight in from center in Texas, and it’s not as hot as usual. That could temper scoring there a bit. The wind is blowing out to right in Oakland at 18 mph, but that wont matter in that park.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JULY 14: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning of the game on July 14, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

James Paxton ($12,900): Paxton is far more expensive than anyone else on this slate, but he may actually be worth it. The Blue Jays are only hitting .183 against Paxton in 60 at bats with no homers, two runs, and 11 strikeouts. We want more strikeout potential than that, but I think there are enough free swingers to accommodate. Paxton has a 3.14 ERA at home, and just dominated the Astros in his last start. The Jays shouldn’t put up seven runs again, that’s for sure.

Jose Berrios ($11,000): Berrios has dominated at home with a 7-2 record and a 2.99 ERA in 12 starts. The only thing that has me doubting this is if the rain arrives in the fifth of sixth inning. Keep a close eye on this because Berrios likely wont hit value unless he goes at least seven. He racked up 29.6 DraftKings points in seven innings against the Royals earlier this year. Expect another start like that unless rain interrupts this one.

Corey Kluber ($10,100): I’m on the fence with Kluber here. On one hand, he has dominated at home with a 2.24 ERA and seven wins in 12 starts. Kluber also picked up 20.8 DraftKings points on the Angels earlier this year. The problem is that the Angels have been able to score runs off of him. They have 11 in just 85 at bats. Kluber with get the strikeouts to give you solid numbers, but the upside is kind of limited unless he can dominate them.

Middle Tier:

Freddy Peralta ($9,300): Peralta dazzled in his major league debut at Coors against this same team, striking out 12 in 5.2 shutout innings. The Rockies are not all that dangerous on the road, so I do like the idea of rolling with Peralta again because of the huge strikeout upside. The Rockies are striking out a ton on this road trip. The K upside makes Peralta worth a shot in GPP formats.

Kevin Gausman ($8,100): Honestly, Gausman couldn’t ask for a better place to make his debut. The current Mets are only hitting .232 off of him in 56 at bats with a homer, two runs, and ten strikeouts. the enigmatic Gausman is happy to be out of the A.L. East. We will see just how happy here against the Mess.

Zach Eflin ($8,000): Eflin has had a solid season. That alone isn’t enough to get my endorsement, but his 3.18 ERA in six home starts and his six innings of one run ball with 17.7 DraftKings points in his first game against the Marlins are. The thing here is I don’t see Eflin having a ton of upside. The Marlins don’t go overboard on strikeouts. That said, many will be off of Eflin because of rough outings against the Reds in Cincy and the Dodgers. Don’t be fooled. The Marlins are nowhere near those two offenses.

Dylan Bundy ($7,600): The Rangers are only hitting .185 against Bundy, but you better have stock in Tums if you want to roll with this. Bundy has had good games, great games, and games like I would have pitched…..all within the last two weeks! The Rangers offense isn’t really scaring anyone still, but you are either getting 25 DraftKings points or negatives. There isn’t any in between with Gausman.

Bargain Pitchers:

Tyler Anderson ($7,400): With all due respect to teammate German Marquez, Anderson should not be the same price as him. Anderson has a 2.43 ERA in his last ten starts including those at Coors Field. He is pitching well everywhere, and the Brewers still have a lot of lefty power that will be neutralized here. Marquez was solid last night. Expect Anderson to be better than solid. He looks very underpriced, even against the new look Brewers offense.

Edwin Jackson ($6,400): Who would have thought that Edwin would be a really nice DFS option at times this year? Well, he is. Especially at home. Jackson has a 2.41 ERA in three home starts and he picked up 21.9 DraftKings points against Detroit earlier this year. I expect another strong showing from Edwin against this paltry offense. Just don’t expect a lot of strikeouts.

Jeremy Hellickson ($5,700): The Reds are hitting an awful .103 against Hellickson in 39 at bats with no runs and 11 strikeouts. The sample size is still pretty small, but those are dominant numbers. Now the bad news. Hellickson has given up eight runs over his last two starts against the Marlins and Brewers pre-deadline. There is lots of risk here, but for the price, Hellickson could come up with a huge game.

Austin Gomber ($5,600): Gomber pitched well enough in his first major league start to get some bullpen work with the Cardinals. Now with CarMart out, he will get another crack at the rotation. Gomber went three innings of hitless relief against the Pirates earlier this year, so he has proven he can get them out. There is intrigue here at this price, but the risk is that I doubt Gomber goes more than five innings.

DETROIT, MI – JULY 27: Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians celebrates his fifth inning two run home run with Jose Ramirez #11 while playing the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on July 27, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Washington Nationals vs. Matt Harvey:

I suppose we may have to worry about some bats sitting for the Nats tonight, but even their bench could tee off on Harvey. The Nationals are hitting .266 with eight homers and 23 runs in only 143 at bats against Harvey. Murphy, Zimmerman, and Harper have all hit two homers off of Harvey, and at least two of them should make the lineup tonight. Rendon has the other one, and he is wielding a hot bat anyway. You can complete this stack with any number of players once the official lineup is released.

Cleveland Indians vs. Felix Pena:

The Mariners chased Pena after he recorded just one out in his last start, so Cleveland bats are going to be really chalky. That said, I don’t know how you can just ignore Lindor and Jose Ramirez in this situation. The only way to really get some separation though is to hope for another blowup and add Edwin, Yan Gomes, and Brantley to the stack. Then again, Pena has been brilliant on the road, so I’m not sure I’ll go all out here.

Minnesota Twins vs. Burch Smith:

The Royals bullpen was taxed last night because of the rain, so they may elect to leave Smith out there as long as possible. I’m all for this! The Twins are 10-23(.435) with a homer and eight runs against Smith already. This may seem like a strange stack, but Mauer, Kepler, and Rosario all hit righties well, especially under average righties. Jake Cave and Miguel Sano are starting to hit, and the power potential of LoMo is still pretty cheap. I will load up here in at least one lineup!

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Lance McCullers Jr.:

McCullers has lost three straight starts, and has not pitched well on the road all season long. This was a pitcher’s duel last night, but I don’t expect it to be tonight. The struggles of McCullers and the power capabilities of this offense look like a recipe for Astro disaster. Muncy, Machado, and Matt Kemp are in play. Puig had homered in two straight before taking a seat against Verlander last night. Justin Turner is back, and could be worth a look as well.

Seattle Mariners vs. Marco Estrada:

It has been a trying season for Estrada, and he just keeps getting rocked. That probably wont change. Seattle is hitting .297 with three homers and 11 runs in 74 at bats. Nelson Cruz has two of the three homers. Maybin has the other, and looks like a really nice bargain tonight. Denard Span and Kyle Seager are worth a look from the left side. Segura and Gordon at the top of this lineup shouldn’t be ignored either.

ATLANTA, GA – JULY 30: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves rounds the bases after hitting a third inning solo home run against the Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park on July 30, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

As with this whole road trip, the only Rockies worth mentioning are Arenado and Blackmon. Blackmon more so tonight with a righty on the mound.

Don’t trust Dylan Bundy? I can guarantee that you wont be alone. With the way Choo and Odor are hitting right now, I would rather play them than Bundy. Robinson Chirinos is worth a look as well.

Zach Wheeler got pulverized by the Braves earlier this year. It shouldn’t be as bad in New York, but I still don’t see a great outing from Wheeler here. Freeman is 8-16 with two homers, six RBI, and ten walks. Build around Freeman! Tyler Flowers has homered off of Wheeler as well, and I like Markakis and Albies here as well if you are looking to turn this into a stack.

Andrew Suarez has been worse on the road, and not all that good against Arizona anyway. Goldy and John Ryan Murphy have homered off of him so far. Pollock is worth a look, but I really do like Goldschmidt more than any of his teammates tonight.

Kenta Maeda has pitched well enough to not stack against, but he still hasn’t done anything to be excited about. That Astros offense is a shadow of it’s former self with all of the injuries, but Springer is still worth a look here. I also like the bargain potential of Marwin Gonzalez as well.

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Middle Tier:

Ivan Nova has been solid at home this year. That’s the only think keeping me off a full stack. The Cards are hitting .305 off of him with nine runs in 59 at bats. Molina and Gyorko have the homers and six of the RBI. I’m okay with one or both of them in my lineup. Paul DeJong is worth a look too.

Jose Urena‘s numbers against the Phillies are decent, and, well, the Phillies haven’t hit well lately. My first instinct is to stay away from this, however, Odubel Herrera has scored six runs in 13 at bats against Urena. Cesar Hernandez has five RBI off Urena, so those are good ways to get some exposure without opening yourself up too much.

Ryan Braun has smoked all lefties, including this one. He is 3-6 with two homers against Tyler Anderson. I’m not crazy about any other Brewers though for their price points.

You may see Kluber and lay off all Angels. Don’t be that guy. Justin Upton is 5-18 with three homers and six RBI against Kluber. You can ignore the rest though. Trout is just 2-15 and Pujols is 0-16 lifetime against Kluber.

If I trusted the Baltimore offense at all, I would stack against Mike Minor. As it stands now, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo look like good picks. Then again, maybe using Minor is the way to go though I do hate his price.

The Giants are pretty cheap, and I am still expecting Clay Buchholz to go off the rails at some point. The Giants don’t have the offense to really touch him up, but Longoria and McCutchen are worth a look at affordable prices.

Bargain Shoppers:

Want to save money? That’s a rhetorical question. However, Alcides Escobar is 6-15 with a homer and six RBI in his career against Jose Berrios. Alex Gordon is 3-11 with a homer and two RBI. They will set you back a combined $5,800 just like Mike Trout will.

You may want to take a bit of a shot with some Toronto righties since they are cheap. However, this could net you a big, fat zero as well if Paxton is on again. Aledmys Diaz and Teoscar Hernandez are both really cheap, as is Solarte. There is a lot to like about the price. Just be prepared to come up empty.

Jonathan Lucroy is 7-21 with two homers and six RBI off of Jordan Zimmerman already. Khris Davis is always worth a look as well, especially since Zimmerman has struggled since the break.

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