Welcome to FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups. This column is focused on the Early Only and Main slates for Wednesday, August 8th 2018. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.
It’s been about a week since I’ve had time to post a FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column, but of course I’ve continued to play. A typical summer Wednesday in major league baseball leads up to a solid split slate. We have something like that today, and we’ll provide lineup thoughts for pitcher and offensive stacks in both the Early Only and Main slates for Wednesday.
A trend we’ve seen since the middle of the summer, has continued. We’ve noticed while winning lineups typically have the slates top pitchers, in the last couple of months we’ve seen (and played) winning lineups with some of the better value pitcher plays.
For example, we did very well with a 58 FanDuel MLB point Trevor Cahill play this week, on a modest salary. We’re likely going to deploy that lineup option again today.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Weather Note: For the most part, we’re weather-clear today. A good portion of the U.S. will be hot and humid this afternoon, but we shouldn’t see any impacts from showers or thunderstorms. That being said, we also know with hot and humid conditions, a stray isolated thunderstorm is always possible and brief delays can’t be completely ruled out.
Living in the Washington, D.C. area and being a weather enthusiast allows me to always be cautious on days like today when playing the Nationals games for DFS MLB optimal lineups.
The conditions are ripe for isolated thunderstorms throughout the area tonight, and the Nationals/Braves game is really the only concern we should have for the Main slate.
Offense is less of a concern, with a delay more likely over postponement. But if you’re considering pitching in the game, keep an eye on the weather around 7pm EDT.
With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Early Only Slate
The last time German Marquez ($7,100) was on the mound, we tried to get a post out for FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups. Why? Marquez has quietly been on fire lately, and that continued through his last start. What happened? German posted nine K’s against the Brewers, in Milwaukee, and gave us 46 FanDuel MLB points on a cheap salary.
While more expensive options like Patrick Corbin ($10,000) and Marco Gonzales ($9,100) are attractive options, especially considering their match ups, Marquez actually has the highest K-rate of any starter in the Early Only slate, boasting a 29.8%, in the last 30 days.
With a 2.50 xFIP, German also has the best pitching metrics of all starting pitchers in the FanDuel MLB Early only slate. Yes, better than Corbin or Gonzales. The only problem with the Marquez play is the match up.
Since July 1st, the Pirates have a solidly low 20% K-rate against RHP’s. Even better, for the Pirates, they have an awesome 117 wRC+ against RHP’s. And, of course, they put up 10 runs against the Rockies. So we know German will not be a popular play this afternoon. Which is why a red-hot Marquez is a great play for your lineup.
If the risk doesn’t settle in your stomach well, your next best play is Gonzales. Marco has been a consistent 30 to 40 FanDuel MLB point pitcher over the last two months and he’s facing a Texas Rangers lineup who’s fanning nearly 24% of the time against lefties lately. He’s a solid play, we just love the upside, value, and low ownership from Marquez.
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate
I didn’t intentionally seek a cheaper pitcher in the Main FanDuel MLB slate tonight. I mean look at this list: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000), Mike Clevinger ($9,500), Luis Severino ($9,400), and Mike Foltynewicz ($8,800). Pretty great right? Well, not so much.
Of that group, Clevinger may be the most surprising, but he’s honestly the best play. While we like Kershaw’s progression, he’s still battling into his old dominating form, recovering from an injury, and playing a productive A’s offensive lineup is the best way to do that.
Severino was once dominate this season, but he’s going through a heavy negative regression. In fact, as we’ll talk about with the offensive stacking options, we may even target Luis for hitting. In a similar situation, Folty seems to be regressing lately, and has a tough surging Nats offense to contend with.
While Clevinger is the most appealing from that group, we don’t love the match up and K-potential against the Twins, even in Cleveland. So, after scanning the rest of the pitching metrics for each of tonight’s starters, over the last 30 days, we narrowed our choices down to two.
You could go with either Jose Quintana ($8,200) or Tommy Milone ($7,500). Of the two, Quintana appears to be the obvious play. But Jose’s K-rate is below 19% lately, while Milone has a 32.6% rate after two starts against the Marlins and Mets.
But Quintana has the best match up. The Royals are striking out at a high rate against practically every pitcher they face, right or left, since the middle of the summer. In this scenario, they’re facing a lefty, and since July 1st, they’ve fanned 28.1% of the time against lefties, the highest in baseball.
So while Quintana’s K-rate is low lately, he has a very good match up and we should still see about six-plus strikeouts tonight. But, the Braves are also facing a southpaw. And to our surprise, Atlanta has the eight highest K-rate against lefties since July 1st, at 23.2%. Pair with Tommy’s hot K-rate since the call up from the minor’s, we may have another huge pitching bargain on our hands.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Early Only Slate
With Marquez at pitcher and a cheap salary in the most expensive position, we have plenty of cash left over to grab some of the top hitting stacks int he Early Only FanDuel MLB slate. Looking at the pitching metrics from each start over the last 30 days, we have at least four teams we can target.
Yovani Gallardo is only giving up 0.83 home runs per nine innings in the last month, but his low 12.3% K-rate and high 5.37 xFIP point to the value we could get out of stacking the top Seattle Mariners bats in Arlington, TX today.
Aside from Nelson Cruz ($4,200) who will be part of our stack, the Mariners are cheap too. Dee Gordon ($2,800), Kyle Seager ($2,900), and Jean Segura ($3,200) are all productive offensive hitters lately, with salaries below $3.5K.
So what do we do with the rest of the lineup? Well, you could stack the Angels and Tigers playing each other in Anaheim, CA. Although with Mike Trout out of the lineup again today, they’re not as sexy of a play. So while we might grab some players in that game, we’re looking for some other options.
Vince Velasquez isn’t the kind of pitcher I love targeting lately. Vince hasn’t given up a home run in 30 days, but he also has some control issues with his fast ball, and tends to give up home runs in bunches, given he’s through so hard, in the wrong conditions. We may be able to capture that with some D-backs in our lineups against Vince today.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate
With so many great offensive stacking options on the table, it may seem very odd to consider the Chicago White Sox as a top option. But against right-handed pitchers like Severino, the White Sox have a decent 96 wRC+, just below the Astros (97), over the last 30 days.
Yes, they have a high 27% K-rate in this scenario, but they also have some hot hitters in their lineup, like Jose Abreu ($3,700) and Avisail Garcia ($3,000). And with so many Yankees fans playing FanDuel MLB, along with the unlikely target the White Sox have tonight, their ownership should be low.
So with all of that in mind, we’re going to plug four White Sox into our lineup, utilizing their value against a struggling right-handed pitcher, at home in Chicago. Paired with the value we’re getting out of the pitching spot, we have plenty of cash left over.
Now flush with cash, we may consider one of the top offensive options in baseball right now, the Cleveland Indians. At first glance, the match up against Jake Odorizzi may seem unappealing, but Jake is giving up almost 1.5 home runs per nine innings lately. Against this lineup, that’s dangerous!
FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup
Marco Gonzales may be the better, safer, play at pitcher for the Early Only FanDuel MLB slate, but we like German Marquez ceiling today, given his super high K-rate over the last month. With the salary savings we get from German, we’re going to load up on Mariners, some Diamondbacks, and maybe sprinkle in some Tigers or Halos.
We like Quintana or Milone at the pitching spot tonight. But given the value Tommy provides form that pick, we’ll likely grab the temporary Nats southpaw against a surprising Braves lineup against lefties lately. The value pick at pitcher paired with the White Sox value opportunity against the regression-plagued Severino allows us to stack the Indians tonight, in Cleveland.
With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineups for the Early Only and Main FanDuel MLB slates on Wednesday, August 8th 2018:
FanDuel MLB Early Only Sample Lineup: FanDuel MLB Main Sample Lineup:
P German Marquez ($7,100) P Tommy Milone ($7,500)
C/1B Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900) C/1B Jose Abreu (3,700)
2B Dee Gordon ($2,800) 2B Jason Kipnis ($2,900)
3B Kyle Seager ($2,900) 3B Jose Ramirez ($5,300)
SS Jean Segura ($3,200) SS Tim Anderson ($2,900)
OF Nelson Cruz ($4,200) OF Avisail Garcia ($3,000)
OF Rhys Hoskins ($4,000) OF Daniel Palka ($2,900)
OF David Peralta ($3,600) OF Michael Brantley ($3,700)
UTIL Andrelton Simmons ($3,200) UTIL Yonder Alonso ($3,100)
Remaining Salary: $100 Remaining Salary: $0
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel MLB lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, NFL, PGA, and NASCAR this summer!
Add us as a preferred source on Google