DraftKings Main MLB Picks August 9: Paxton looks elite

SEATTLE, WA - JULY 30: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers against the Houston Astros in the second inning at Safeco Field on July 30, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - JULY 30: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers against the Houston Astros in the second inning at Safeco Field on July 30, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /
SAN FRANCISCO – OCTOBER 28: A general view of the exterior of AT&T Park during Game Two of the 2010 MLB World Series between the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers on October 28, 2010 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Main MLB Picks August 9: Paxton looks elite

Six of the nine Thursday games make up our main DraftKings slate. Not all of the star power was in the early going. We have a couple of aces going tonight as well, along with a game in Coors Field. How do we manage this? Let’s take a look!

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It is a clear night for baseball with no games threatened by rain. The only wind is the customary breeze by the Bay.

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WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 17: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros and the American League during the 89th MLB All-Star Game, presented by Mastercard at Nationals Park on July 17, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Justin Verlander ($12,400): Verlander has dominated everyone this year, just not the Mariners. Only because he hasn’t faced them. Verlander’s career numbers against the Mariners are good, but not great. However, considering the way this season is going for Verlander, I will ignore most of the past stats here. The 2.19 ERA speaks for itself.

James Paxton ($10,600): I think it’s safe to say the rust is off since Paxton has went eight innings in each of the last two starts. One was against the Astros, a game in which Paxton racked up 34 DraftKings points. This watered down version of the Astros isn’t much of a threat to anyone with Altuve, Springer, and Correa all out. Roll Paxton out there with confidence. The Astros are only hitting .197 with five runs in 142 at bats and 37 strikeouts. That’s right. The healthy Astros have just five runs in 142 at bats!

Middle Tier:

J.A. Happ ($9,300): The Rangers are hitting a miserable .123 in 57 at bats against Happ with one homer, four runs, and 18 strikeouts. I realize that Yankee Stadium is going to scare some off, but Happ has a 3.67 ERA in nine career starts there. And he wont be facing the Yankees tonight. That has to help. That isn’t to say that Texas doesn’t have power, but most of it is from the left side. Happ will neutralize that. There is good potential here tonight.

Bargain Pitchers:

Tyler Anderson ($5,900): Anderson was demolished by the Brewers in Milwaukee in his last start. That, along with the Dodgers, will keep ownership low. That opens the door for potential here. First off, Anderson has a strong 3.65 ERA in 11 home starts. He has also racked up 38.2 DraftKings points in his two starts against the Dodgers this year. The Dodgers hit him hard last year, which is skewing the past stats. There is risk here, but signs point towards a good rebound start for Anderson tonight.

Jake Faria ($5,800): The Rays are starting Hunter Wood again, which is fine. My target is whoever relieves Wood. Jalen Beeks dominated the Orioles last night. It should be Faria’s turn as long as his neck is okay. Keep an eye leading up to first pitch, but it really doesn’t matter much whether it is Faria or Yonny Chirinos that relieves Wood. They have enormous potential against the struggling Orioles.

Ivan Nova ($4,900): The Giants are scuffling lately. Not that Nova isn’t, but he is heading to a pitcher’s park against a team that can’t hit. If you take Longoria’s stats from the AL East out of the past stats for Nova, the Giants are just 8-39 off of him with one homer and three runs. If you need to go really cheap at pitcher, Nova is the safest way to do so. It’s not his fault. Nova just has the good fortune of getting the Giants.

ST PETERSBURG, FL – MAY 24: C.J. Cron #44 of the Tampa Bay Rays is congratulated by Mallex Smith #0 after scoring during a game against the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field on May 24, 2018 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

New York Yankees vs. Ariel Jurado:

Jurado has been serviceable, but serviceable wont cut it in the Bronx. Even the watered down Yankee lineup could make a lot of noise tonight. Stanton and Didi are elite plays, but Gardner, Gleyber Torres, and Andujar aren’t far behind. Greg Bird is a nice play at home, and Aaron Hicks is kind of flying under the radar with all of the other power on this team. A Yankee stack may be the safest since Coors isn’t a sure thing.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. David Hess:

Hess has been a disaster against everyone BUT the Rays so far. That’s going to change at some point, and it will likely be tonight. As per usual, I have no freaking idea which way to go with the Rays, but it is becoming apparent that Bauers, Cron, and Mallex Smith are the places to start. It could be the two other pieces of a Rays stack that set us apart or ruin the night. Joey Wendle, Matt Duffy, and Willy Adames are all worthy of considering. So is Kiermaier.

Colorado Rockies vs. Ross Stripling:

So, it’s not the fact that Stripling is fresh off the DL. He only missed one start. I’m attacking him here because Stripling has given up nine runs in 8.2 innings over his last two starts. Now he gets to go to Coors? This wont end well. Stack up the lethal lefties of Blackmon, David Dahl, CarGo, and Gerardo Parra if he is in there. You can’t go wrong with Arenado either, but price will be a major factor in this stack. We may have to drop down to Ian Desmond of LeMahieu here.

BOSTON, MA – AUGUST 2: Steve Pearce #25 of the Boston Red Sox hits a three-run home run in the fourth inning of a game against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on August 2, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Amazingly enough, Ryan Borucki has not given up a homer in seven starts. However, he did give up seven runs (four earned) to the Red Sox earlier this year. I think Borucki gives up at least one tonight. Why? Steve Pearce. He is heading back to Canada, and Pearce does nothing both mash lefties. Mookie and J.D. could come thorugh too. Mookie does have a pair of RBI against Borucki. However, Pearce is the only one I regard as a must-play here.

Well, hello Justin Turner! Turner is 11-21(.524) with a homer and five RBI against Tyler Anderson. Bellinger and Kemp have homered off of Anderson as well, so they are worth a look if you don’t believe in Anderson. Kike Hernandez usually kills lefties and he does have a homer off of Anderson, but he is hitting just .190 in 21 at bats against him.

Andrew Suarez has been much better at home this year, but the Pirates smoked him earlier this year. Starling Marte homered off of him in that game, and he will set you back just $4,300. Dickerson hits lefties well enough to consider, but I think my main target here may be David Freese. He has been strong since the break.

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Middle Tier:

Robinson Chirinos has the only Rangers homer against J.A. Happ. He is really the only one I would consider tonight because even though Choo hits lefties pretty well, he is 0-9 lifetime against Happ.

Evan Gattis is the only Astro that I would even consider today, but he didn’t play in any of the games in a National League park, so his timing is bound to be off. That’s not what you want against Paxton.

Evan Longoria smoked Ivan Nova in the A.L. East. Longoria is 13-44(.295) with three homers and nine RBI against Nova.

Bargain Shoppers:

Rick Porcello has been good on the road, so I am foregoing the stack even though Toronto has hit him hard. Most of it comes from Justin Smoak, who is 10-37(.270) with five homers and 12 RBI against Porcello. Lock in Smoak! Kendrys Morales is worth a look too, but I expect a pretty good outing from Porcello. Just not five figures good.

Tim Beckham is finally starting to hit, so he is worth a look here. Aside from Beckham, I’m just not that excited about any of his teammates. Maybe Adam Jones or Danny Valencia, but I’m not going crazy here.

Kyle Seager is 8-25(.320) with three homers, a steal, and nine RBI in his career against Justin Verlander. If I go after him at all, it will be with Seager. Nelson Cruz is worth a look too since he has a homer and seven RBI against Verlander.

Next. MLB Game by Game breakdown August 9. dark

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