Fantasy Football Debate: Kareem Hunt vs Melvin Gordon

The goal of this series is to arm you with enough information for you to confidently decide between two players with similar PPR ADP’s.  Today in our Fantasy Football Debate, we break down Kareem Hunt vs Melvin Gordon.

If your pick falls around the 8-12 area then these two are definitely on your radar.  If you’re stressing who you should choose, relax, I got your back it is time for Fantasy Football Debate!

Fantasy Football Debate:  The Case for Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt burst on the scene last year as a 22-year-old and ended up finishing the RB4 in PPR leagues.  Five weeks into the season he was the clear-cut RB1.

Last season Hunt delivered 10 games over 100 total yards. In those 10 games he averaged 133 total yards and 1 touchdown. He even went over 200 total yards twice.

On the surface that looks great but Hunt was a streaky player.  He went 9 weeks in a row, weeks 4-13,  without scoring a touchdown and topped 100 total yards just 4 times during that stretch.  In Hunt’s 6 games under 100 total yards he was bad, averaging just 55 yards per game.

Hunt had the benefit of playing with Alex Smith in 2017 who’s a master of accuracy and the ability to extend plays.  Smith is gone.  Traded to Washington to make room for last year’s 1st round pick Patrick Mahomes.  There’s plenty of hype surrounding Mahomes but at the end of the day he’s a completely unproven commodity in the NFL.  If he struggles that will inevitably affect Hunt.

Hunt is a bell cow back for sure.  The Chiefs have a good offensive line and a coach who has a strong history of getting the ball in the hands of his backs.  Look at Shady McCoy and Brian Westbrook‘s seasons under Reid in Philly, then Jamaal Charles in K.C. for proof.

I don’t think you’ll regret taking Hunt as early as 9th overall.  What worries me the most was Hunt’s lack of consistency through the meat of his schedule.  My other concerns are the two major offensive changes in Kansas City.  Offensive Coordinator, Matt Nagy leaving to coach the Bears and unproven Pat Mahomes replacing Alex Smith at QB.

Fantasy Football Debate: The Case for Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon finished his 2017 campaign as the RB7 in PPR formats.  A finish that was consistent with his 2016 RB8 finish.

Heading into 2017 there were definitely question marks surrounding Gordon despite his previous season’s breakout performance.  Can he catch the ball out of the backfield?  Can he average more than 4 yards per carry?  Is he durable?  Can he pound the rock without fumbling?

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He answered every one of those questions in 2017.

He caught 58 of his 83 targets.  Not only did his total receptions go up from the year before but Phillip Rivers targeted him on average 2 times a game more than the previous year.  He turned those 58 receptions into 476 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Once again he failed to rush for more than 4 yards per carry.  We hear this a lot in fantasy circles when discussing Gordon.  It’s true he didn’t average 4 but what he has done is average 3.9 yards per carry in back to back seasons.  Considering he toted the ball 284 times last year his .1 yards per carry below 4 amounts to Gordon needing just 29 more rushing yards to bring his total up to 4 yards per carry.  I imagine if Gordon would have hit the magic 4 ypc average he’d be a tier 2 RB as opposed to a Tier 3 back.

After missing a combined 5 games his first 2 seasons Gordon played a full 16 in 2017.  A nod to his durability was his 20 rushes per game average over the final 7 games of the season.  The Chargers were on a playoff push, they needed Gordon and he came through when they called.

Melvin Gordon fumbled a combined 8 times over the course of his first 2 seasons.  When 2017 was all said and done he raised that total to 9.  284 carries, 1 fumble.  I think he answered that question for anyone concerned with his ability to hold on to the ball while fighting for extra yards.

Gordon went over 100 total yards 7 times in 2017. He averaged 140 yards per game over the course of those 7 games.  That means more than half the time he didn’t hit the century mark.  What saved Gordon’s fantasy owners was that he only went 2 games in a row without scoring one time all year.  He scored 12 touchdowns for the 2nd consecutive season in 2017.

Just like Hunt, Gordon is a bell cow.  Unlike Hunt, Gordon has a seasoned vet running his offense and a potential top 5 defense that’s capable of ensuring the Charger running game remains a viable option every week for 4 quarters.  Age wise the edge goes to Hunt depending on who you talk to.  Gordon is only 25, an age some people consider the beginning of his prime.

Fantasy Football Debate:  The Verdict.

This is a very tight match up.  I think both players will give you RB1 value in 2018.  I like what the Chargers have going for them more than I like what’s going on in K.C.  Although both could be playoff teams, the L.A. defense projects to be more dominant.

The deciding factors for me are Rivers over Mahomes and the potential potency of the Charger defense keeping them in games late in the 4th quarter.  That adds up to more opportunities for today’s Fantasy Football Debate winner: MELVIN GORDON.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and Fantasy Football analysis as we get you set for the NFL season.