Which player are going to bust in your fantasy football league this season? We outline a few that might not be worth their draft slots.
The biggest disappointments in life usually come on the heels of a heightened sense of anticipation for something great. It isn’t the pain that gets to you the most, it’s the self-assessment afterwards that reminds you at one point you really believed.
Bane hit the nail on the head in The Dark Knight Rises when he tells Bruce “there can be no true despair without hope.” Although he was talking about the destruction of an entire city, he kind of had a point.
Now think of a player you genuinely regret drafting. Not because of an injury, but someone who played in enough games to drive you TRULY insane. The ex who strung you along with the occasional “you up?” text message. They are still there if you want them, but you can’t do that to yourself anymore. That’s the fantasy draft pick you want to avoid (also, great dating advice). These picks happen in the earlier rounds.
Maybe you were a sucker for Amari Cooper last year or ignored the principles of logic and took Jay Ajayi in round two. Every season there’s a handful of players that severely underperform their average draft position. The key to avoiding them is to identify the potential risk they possess before you’re in the draft room.
Learning from mistakes in life can be difficult, but avoiding fantasy football landmines is easier than you think. All it takes is some historical research, a little patience; and the best Twitter follow you’ll ever make (@TheFFGator). Kidding about the last part, but I’d appreciate it.
The 2018 Bust List
Deshaun Watson – QB, Houston Texans
ADP: #35 (QB2)
Watson has all the makings of the league’s next big star. He’s electric, takes shots down the field and has a confidence about him that you don’t see very often from a rookie. Sundays didn’t feel the same after he went down, and it’s been a long time since he’s suited up for the Texans.
It isn’t his talent that presents risk, but his draft price combined with a production level that’s statistically impossible to continue. Let’s play name that quarterback:
Player A: 283 yds/game, 3.0 TD/game, 9.3% TD rate
Player B: 261 yds/game, 1.9 TD/game, 5.5% TD rate
Player C: 258 yds/game, 2.1 TD/game, 6.4% TD rate
It doesn’t take much detective work to discover that player A is Watson from last year. Who are the other two? Trick question. Those are the career averages of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
Watson would be more than impressive if this continued. He’d make two of the best to ever play the game look like Uncle Rico and Johnny Manziel in his CFL debut (too soon?).
The good was certainly great, but the bad….. is being ignored. Let’s do one more comparison because I’m a Hitchcock fan and I appreciate some suspense (stats can be found at PlayerProfiler):
Player A: 1.3 Int/gm, 2.1 Interceptable passes/gm, 64% true completion percentage
Player B: 1.2 Int/gm, 1.1 Interceptable passes/gm, 67% true completion percentage
Nothing witty to say for this one….. just be aware that player B is Brett Hundley.
Watson carries a ton of risk and is being drafted at his ceiling. I’m not inferring he’s a bad quarterback, we just don’t know what he is yet. It’s not the gamble you want to take this early in drafts. Stay away, or your championship dreams will be haunted by a Freddy Krueger like monster known as “regression.”