DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, August 23

CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 12: Melky Cabrera #53 of the Cleveland Indians hits a three-run home run against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning on August 12, 2018 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) DFS MLB

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have eight games scattered throughout the day so lets get to it!

Wednesday night was a very solid night as both DFS MLB lineups went over 130, thanks to some Cubs hitters that came through and Walker Buehler pitching well. Jon Gray was a bit of a letdown but he wasn’t bad by any stretch. We have two slates today so let’s get rolling.

DFS MLB – Indians at Red Sox, Early

Indians Probable Starter – Adam Plutko, RHP 

4.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .310 average, .434 wOBA, 11.7 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .244 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 59.7 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

The slate might be small but I want to try and find a way to get multiple Red Sox bats in against Plutko. He’s giving up all the fly balls to each side of the plate and he’s also fastball heavy which could lead to terrible results. I’m looking towards the lefties first since Plutko has a 3.60 HR/9 and an xFIP and FIP above 6.50 and that means Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland. Both have ISO’s over .200 on the seasons and Benintendi doesn’t strikeout very much versus righty pitching. It’s hard to see Benintendi having too bad of a game with all the factors working in his favor. The righties are interesting to because Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts all have an ISO against righty fastballs of at least .300 and J.D. Martinez is all the way up at .500.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt as a cheap option

Secondary Options – J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts

Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP 

3.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .313 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .306 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Price is having a pretty solid season and he’s in good form, but I don’t think you can pitch him against the Indians offense. Price is pretty even splits wise and that would make me lean mostly towards the righty hitters. Edwin Encarnacion came back yesterday but he hasn’t hit lefties well this year with a a .154 ISO and a .308 wOBA. He did hit a homer off a lefty yesterday but it is only his fifth on the year. I’m continuing to ride with Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes and perhaps Melky Cabrera. He’s still expensive and I don’t think I’m going to pay for him in a lot of lineups but he does have some pretty solid BvP in 32 at-bats. Cabrera owns a .313 average, two home runs and a .547 xwOBA. I think it’s more of a Lindor day than Jose Ramirez if you’re spending up for one of them. Lindor has better pitch data and a higher OPS, wOBA and ISO versus lefties this year. I wouldn’t go nuts with Indians hitters today.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Lindor, Melky Cabrera

Secondary Options – Yan Gomes(if active), Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Guyer as a punt

Home Run Pick – Mookie Betts

DFS MLB – Phillies at Nationals, Early

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP 

2.24 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 25.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .202 average, .253 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 24.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .190 average, .232 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 28.1 fly ball rate and 24.2 hard hit rate

This game is going to be pretty easy from a hitter’s perspective because no one is going to profile all that well. We have all three N.L Cy Young front runners on the mound today and two of them are in this game. Since the slate is smaller, you can make a small argument to go against the grain and play Bryce Harper. I would assume of all the high priced players, Harper will likely carry some of the lowest ownership since Nola is such a good pitcher. We don’t like to lean on BvP too heavily but Harper has gotten the upper hand on Nola in their careers. Through 23 at-bats, Harper is hitting .391 with two bombs and a .404 xwOBA. Juan Soto is a dynamite player and Nola is slightly worse against lefties but this isn’t spot I would look twice at on a larger slate.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.11 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 34.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .197 average, .258 wOBA, 31.9 K rate, 47.4 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .163 average, .230 wOBA, 37.3 K rate, 44.4 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Speaking of a spot that I really don’t want hitters, going against Scherzer really isn’t someone you want to go after. Scherzer has faced the active hitters in the Philly lineup for 293 plate appearances and has only surrendered a .185 average, .243 xwOBA and three home runs with a 26.3 strikeout percentage. The three homers have come from Asdrubal Cabrera, Nick Williams and Justin Bour. You can take a swing at Bour since Scherzer gives up so many fly balls, but Bour has a .143 average and a .224 xwOBA. The biggest question with Scherzer is if you can pay all the way up to him given the other pitching options on the slate.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Bour, Nick Williams

Home Run Pick – None

DFS MLB – White Sox at Tigers, Early

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .209 average, .299 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .325 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 43.5 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

If you like the offensive players in this slate but can’t swing all the ones you want and an ace, Shields might not be the worst route to take. It’s definitely a little scary because Shields can be up and down and he is worse on the road. It’s also continually hard to ignore how poor the Tigers are against righty pitching. They remain in the bottom five in average, OPS, OBP, slugging, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Shields has been reverse splits to some extent, although the HR/9 to lefties is a little higher than to righties. There’s only three hitters with an ISO over .170 against righties and they’re Jim Aducci, Niko Goodrum and Nicholas Castellanos. I don’t think those hitters are poor plays but it might depend more on roster construction as to who you play.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jim Aducci, Niko Goodrum, Nicholas Castellanos

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.27 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .230 average, .299 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 44.9 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .290 average, .283 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 47.9 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

We might be forced into using some White Sox whether we like it or not today just due to pricing and who else we actually want to play. Fortunately, Matt Boyd is a lefty so there’s hitters that make me a little more comfortable using. The unfortunate part is Boyd has shown to be significantly better at home this season by ERA, being almost a full three runs lower in his home park. Matt Davidson appears to be the way to look first for a hitter. Boyd throws his slider almost 30 percent of the time to righties and Davidson has a .750 ISO and .590 xwOBA versus the pitch and that meshes nicely with his .256 ISO and .379 wOBA on the season. It really works out nicely because Avisail Garcia was next on my list of hitters with his .271 ISO on the year and he also crushes lefty sliders to a .519 xwOBA and .500 ISO. Both of those hitter have very small sample sizes against the pitch but they are promising.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson

Secondary Options – Tim Anderson

Home Run Pick – Matt Davidson

DFS MLB – Giants at Mets, Early

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

3.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .259 average, .315 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .300 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

Bumgarner has been a fairly mediocre pitcher this season by his standards. He’s really struggled on the road with an ERA of 4.70 and an xFIP and FIP over 5.00, which backs up the poor ERA. He typically isn’t someone I want to use away from AT&T Park but if there’s an exception to that rule, it’s at the New York Mets. They are about the easiest possible matchup for a lefty pitcher and it’s not like Bumgarner is some terrible pitcher overall. About the only hitter that I would potentially consider would be Todd Frazier. Again, on a short slate we’re making some exceptions but they’ve faced each other 12 times and Frazier has five hits including one home run and a .744 xwOBA. I trust that number a little more than trying to chase the home run but Frazier is priced low enough to take a stab. Devin Mesoraco is semi-interesting as well with a .700 ISO versus the four seam/cuter mix Bumgarner has been throwing and Amed Rosario is at .250 which is a monster number for him.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Amed Rosario

Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP 

1.71 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 31.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .236 average, .276 wOBA, 30.1 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 24.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .171 average, .205 wOBA, 32.2 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

One spot where I’m really not making any exceptions is playing hitters against deGrom. He’s been so lights out this year and should win the N.L. Cy Young this year, even over Nola and Scherzer. The Giants are quietly a strike heavy team against righty pitching and that trend should continue today. On a slate loaded with top arms, deGrom is my favorite in a vacuum.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Todd Frazier

Braves at Marlins, Main

Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP 

3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .181 average, .294 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 38.9 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .299 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

I’m torn on what to do here with Newcomb. On the one hand, Miami is not good against lefty pitching as they rank in the bottom 10 in all of our major offensive categories. That would normally point me right towards Newcomb but the lack of strikeouts are a legitimate concern. The upside might not be there for Newcomb in this matchup as he doesn’t have a large strikeout percentage and the Marlins have the tenth best percentage in baseball, at just 21.3 percent. I would also really only use one hitter against Newcomb and that’s Brian Anderson. He’s the team leader in ISO and xwOBA and he stands outs against lefty four seams, which Newcomb throws over 60 percent of the time. Versus that pitch, Anderson has a .462 xwOBA and a .214 ISO. J.T. Realmuto crushes lefty fastballs as well with a .308 ISO but the seasonal data isn’t as kind. He does have a .200 ISO but only a .301 wOBA to go along with it.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brian Anderson

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto

Marlins Probable Starter – Elieser Hernandez, RHP

5.08 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .389 wOBA, 12.7 K rate, 52.2 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .284 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 53.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Wei-Yin Chen isn’t the only pitcher for the Marlins that is drastically better at home as Hernandez has a 2.43 ERA at home compared to a 10.00+ on the road. That looks worrisome for the Atlanta hitters but his xFIP and FIP tell a different story. At home to lefties it’s 4.78 and 5.89 is I still find myself liking the Braves tonight. Hernandez is almost exclusively a four seam/changeup pitcher to lefties and the one factor working against the Braves is all their big name lefties have an ISO under .200 versus that pitch mix. The player that does though is Ronald Acuna who is sporting a .423 ISO  versus the mix and a .510 xwOBA. Acuna has also taken over the team lead in OPS, ISO and wOBA on the season. Hernandez isn’t striking out enough lefties for me to worry about him too much tonight.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Options – Johan Camargo, Ozzie Albies, Ender Icniarte

Home Run Pick – Brian Anderson

DFS MLB – Royals at Rays, Main

Royals Probable Starter – Danny Duffy, LHP 

4.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .276 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .347 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 45.0 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

Duffy may or may not start this game as the Royals have given a lukewarm “probably” about whether he’ll get the ball or not. Given the current Rays lineup, there’s not much to use against Duffy right now. Wilson Ramos was traded, Daniel Robertson is on the DL, Tommy Pham is likely going to miss the game and Matt Duffy is a nothing burger for power. That really only leaves two hitter: C.J. Cron and Willy Adames. Duffy has given up 20 homers to righty hitters so we want at least a small piece of that. Despite the struggles for Adames overall versus lefties, he does have a .235 ISO against Duffy’s pitch mix and Cron is right next to him at .241. If we know Duffy isn’t limited, he could be a GPP option.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Willy Adames

Rays Probable Starter – Tyler Glasnow, RHP 

4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 30.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .213 average, .314 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 25.6 fly ball rate and 20.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .280 wOBA, 32.1 K rate, 31.9 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Glasnow’s results might not look great from his last start but there’s a couple of important takeaways. The first is he pitched 6.2 innings, which is a big step for a pitcher who need to get stretched out. Secondary, even though he was wild, he only allowed three hits and three walks. The Boston lineup is light years ahead of what the Royals lineup is and Glasnow is well worth a shot at $6,300. He’s not giving up a ton of power with only eight homers given up all year, so even hitters like Lucas Duda and Salvador Perez don’t look like anything special. Glasnow is all fastball and curve which this two hitters do have a nice ISO against. Perez is .321 and Duda is .250 but they still wouldn’t be my favorite play. One player to point out is Whit Merrifield. If he gets on, he’s going to steal a base. He’s swiped 27 bags and Glasnow has allowed 13 total, which would be good for 6th worst in baseball.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lucas Duda, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield

Home Run Pick – Willy Adames

DFS MLB – Reds at Cubs, Main

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

4.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .361 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .270 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 44.3 hard hit rate

The Cubs lefty hitters might be one of the best stacks of the night, despite them letting folks down the past few days. DeSclafani has major issues with lefty hitters and that magnifies on the road with a 3.55 HR/9 and a 8.68 FIP and 7.07 xFIP. This has to be the matchup that snaps the Cubbies out of their funk. 74 percent of DeSclafani’s pitches to lefties are a four seam, cut or sinking fastball and the Cubs have four lefties with an ISO of .185 or above against that mix. Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ all look very solid versus the pitch data and the Cubs are beyond due to score some runs. The only thing that might lower my interest in this game would be what the weather looks like in Wrigley.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – All four lefties mentioned

Secondary Options – Jason Heyward

Cubs Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .317 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 20.6 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .330 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 45.8 hard hit rate

Hamels has turned back the clock since he’s been in Chicago but the Reds pose more of a threat to lefty pitching than even I thought. Cincinnati is in the top 12 in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They’re actually in the top eight of everything but ISO so there might be a sneaky way to attack Hamels here. Some of those season totals might be a little skewed because they haven’t had hitters like Scott Schebler for a while. The not-so-sneaky way is Eugenio Suarez, who is a lefty killer. He has a 1.174 OPS, .337 ISO and a .485 wOBA versus lefties and he’s cheaper than he should be, regardless of Hamels being on the mound. In a much smaller sample, Curt Casali and Phillip Ervin both have an OPS over 1.000 and an ISO of at least .250. Hamels has given up 22 homers to righties on the season and hitters like Ervin and Casali could be a big difference maker.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Options – Phillip Ervin, Curt Casali/Tucker Barnhart, Jose Peraza

Home Run Pick – Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist and Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – A’s at Twins, Main

A’s Probable Starter – Trevor Cahill, RHP 

3.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .281 wOBA, 27.4 K rate, 24.2 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .195 average, .264 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 27.4 fly ball rate and 41.3 hard hit rate

Cahill has some pretty huge home/road splits via ERA, from being under 1.00 at home and over 6.00 on the road. The xFIP and FIP does back that trend up but not to the extent the ERA shows. What’s key for me is what type of lineup the Twins put out. Cahill has been tougher to lefties with a higher strikeout rate and fewer home runs allowed. The only positive pitch data to righty sinkers is Eddie Rosario, who does have a .524 xwOBA and .444 ISO but it’s in a small sample. If the Twins put out six lefties like the normal lineup has, I could be interested in Cahill as a tournament option. His high ground ball rate could rack up the outs in a hurry.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano

Twins Probable Starter – Kohl Stewart, RHP 

7.71 ERA, 2.29 WHIP and 8.1 strikeout rate(7.0 IP)

Vs LHH – .350 average, .374 wOBA, 0.0 K rate, 10.0 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .400 average, .479 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 14.3 hard hit rate

Stewart has yet to allow a home run but that’s about to change tonight. Stewart has gotten roughed up in his early career and the A’s aren’t the team you want to see when you’re not pitching well. Khris Davis is hot and he destroys the righty sinker, which has been Stewart’s most thrown pitch so far.  Davis has both an xwOBA and ISO over .600 versus that pitch and both Matt Olson and Jed Lowrie rate extremely well via pitch data. Through five innings of work, Stewart has yet to record a strikeout against a lefty hitter. That will not end well for Stewart against those kinds of hitters if the trend holds true. The A’s are a very attractive offense tonight.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie

Secondary Options – Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty

Home Run Pick – Khris Davis and Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

Early Sample

P – Jacob deGrom 

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C/1B – Matt Davidson

2B – Brock Holt 

3B – Todd Frazier

SS – Tim Anderson

OF – Avisail Garcia, Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Guyer

Utility – Mitch Moreland 

It actually isn’t terribly hard to fit deGrom and still field a pretty reasonable offense. While I do think Scherzer probably scores a few more points, he’s going to be higher owned and the points should be close. We’re heavier than I would generally like on the White Sox but getting up to deGrom makes it worth it. The slider data makes me feel better about a couple hitter in the lineup as well. Guyer being minimum priced certainly didn’t hurt because it allowed us to get up to two big lefty bats of the Red Sox.

The Core – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, Jacob deGrom

Pitching to Consider – Any of the aces or James Shields to fit all of the bats

Stacks to Consider – Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox

Main Sample 

P – Tyler Glasnow

C/1B – Matt Olson

2B – Jed Lowrie

3B – Eugenio Suarez

SS – Willy Adames

OF – Ian Happ, Khris Davis, Kyle Schwarber

Utility – Ronald Acuna

I’ll take Glasnow and all the bats, please. Hamels is likely to be chalk and that’s fine but he’s pitching over his head for sure. There’s regression coming to some point and maybe it starts a little bit tonight. There are enough bets in the Reds lineup that can make life difficult. After Glasnow and Adames at shortstop, there’s not much of an issue playing whoever you want. I’ll go a little against the grain with Acuna because pitcher splits don’t seem to matter to him right now.

The Core – A’s and Cubs hitters

Pitching to Consider – Cole Hamels, Tyler Glasnow, Trevor Cahill, Sean Newcomb

Stacks to Consider – Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Oakland A’s

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.