DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, August 24

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have our normal massive slate on tap for Friday so let’s dig in!

We have a little bit of a new format to try and I’m eager to hear some feedback if you like it or not. We’ve added the types of pitch and the frequency a pitcher throws it. If the percentage is high enough, it gets noted in here and then we’ll list off some pitch data numbers. After that, I’ll get into what I think of the game and we’ll still make our DFS MLB picks for each team. Let me know what everyone thinks and let’s go to work on this big 14 game slate!

DFS MLB – Yankees at Orioles

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .173 average, .305 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 17.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .312 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

LHH – Sinker 39, Slider 44

RHH – Cutter 46, Slider 28

Notable Hitter Data – None

Holy smokes the Orioles do not profile well tonight. Adam Jones has the highest wOBA of any active hitter versus lefties at .302 and only has an ISO of .106. There’s no hitter that really stands out among the pitch data either. The highest xwOBa is Trey Mancini at .287 and the highest ISO is Mancini’s .192. I suppose you can take a shot on him if he’s leading off since he’s so cheap. The issue is Sabathia hasn’t given up a ton of power to righties at just 1.12 HR/9 on the season. I can’t find myself playing Orioles tonight, even in a game stack in case Sabathia struggles off the disabled list.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Trey Mancini

Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP 

5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .283 average, .337 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 33.9 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .294 average, .356 wOBA, 12.6 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Mix 

LHH – sinker 34, splitter 32

RHH – sinker 52, curve 26

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Neil Walker .592 xwOBA, Aaron Hicks .415 xwOBA/.233 ISO, Gleyber Torres .497 xwOBA/.459 ISO

Cobb comes into this game in good form, rattling off six quality starts in his last seven games. The strikeouts have been pretty low so I don’t think he’s an option but he might frustrate this Yankees offense and their owners tonight. He’s thrown a quality start against these Yankees, the Red Sox, the Indians and the Rangers during this stretch so caution should be exercised. If you have to play Yankees, I would limit myself to just Aaron Hicks or Torres, who smashes sinkers. Walker would be best served as a deep tournament play if you use him. I’m surprised to say it but there are likely going to be better offenses tonight.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gleyber Torres

Secondary Options – Aaron Hicks(expensive), Neil Walker(if active)

Home Run Pick – Neil Walker

DFS MLB – Phillies at Blue Jays

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .324 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 27.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .269 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 26.2 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – sinker 51

Vs RHH – sinker 60

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Aledmys Diaz .500 xwOBA, Devon Travis .417 ISO, Teoscar Hernandez .291 ISO

You’re going to need home runs on a slate this size but I’m not sure you’re going to get them off of Arrieta. He’s only given up 12 through the year and the Blue Jays aren’t hitting sinkers for any power. You’d want to chase lefties but there isn’t one that rates well at all against the sinker. Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales both have ISO’s over .200 and Billy McKinney would be a cheap flier that is on the right side of the plate. Through 14 at-bats, he does have a .495 wOBA and an OPS over 1.100. That’s not something we want to get too hung up on but it’s a cheap punt to consider. Arrieta is a dicey pitcher to use just because there’s likely not strikeout upside even with a top 10 strikeout rate for Toronto.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Billy McKinney

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

4.27 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 14.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .291 average, .316 wOBA, 14.0 K rate, 21.3 fly ball rate and 29.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .286 average, .336 wOBA, 14.0 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – four seam 72

Vs RHH – four seam 57

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Maikel Franco .440 xwOBA/.300 ISO

You can make a small case for Borucki for a second pitcher but it’s going to be risky. Philly does not rate well at all against lefties from a team perspective. They rank in the bottom 10 in average, ISO, OPS, slugging, wOBA and wRC+. From the individual view, Carlos Santana is the only hitter over .200 ISO on the season and Rhys Hoskins is the only hitter with a wOBA over .350 among regular day hitters. Borucki is a lot better at home than on the road. For their part, Philly is even worse on the road to lefty pitchers so I think this is a steer clear spot unless you want to use Franco. Just keep in mind that Borucki has only allowed two home runs through 52.2 innings so far this year. He got waxed in Yankee Stadium last time out but I don’t think that happens again tonight.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Maikel Franco, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana

Home Run Pick – Maikel Franco

DFS MLB – Braves at Marlins

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP 

2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 28.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .187 average, .287 wOBA, 27.9 K rate, 39.5 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .269 wOBA, 28.4 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – four seam 45

Vs LHH – four seam 38,  slider 41

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – JT Riddle, .247 ISO

Considering a lot of aces pitched yesterday, it’s not surprising to see Foltynewicz atop the board as far as salary goes on FanDuel. I have to say I’m at least considering him tonight, even at the inflated price tag. He’s pitched 13 innings against this team and has only surrendered one earned run and struck out 11 batters. His first start came in May before he was pitching deeper into games on a consistent basis so there’s not a lot here to try and attack him with. JT Riddle is a very deep tournament play with that ISO but he’s barely above .300 in wOBA on the season so it’s not a safe play by any means. J.T. Realmuto is always in play against a righty and his ISO is over .200 and the wOBA is over .375. I would still side with Foltynewicz in this matchup.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto, JT Riddle

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.60 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .363 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 34.4 fly ball rate and 44.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .316 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 46.2 fly ball rate and 44.9 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 44, slider 26

Vs RHH – four seam 44, slider 39

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Ronald Acuna .350 ISO, Charlie Culberson .277 ISO, Ozzie Albies .275 ISO

You have to want at least a little bit of the Braves offense here as Straily can’t really keep runs off the board. Freddie Freeman doesn’t pop versus the ISO metric but he crushes sliders and will see one about a quarter of the time. If you’re spending that kind of money, I think I’d rather go to Ronald Acuna. This kid is out of this world right now and Straily is giving up a 1.93 HR/9 to righties, even in Miami. Charlie Culberson wouldn’t be a bad under the radar play from the right side of the plate. I wouldn’t go all out with Braves but there are players to take.

Braves Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Ronald Acuna

Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman, Charlie Culberson

Home Run Pick – Charlie Culberson

ST PETERSBURG, FL – JULY 31: Jake Bauers #9 of the Tampa Bay Rays hits a homer in the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels on July 31, 2018 at Tropicana Field in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Rays

Red Sox Probable Starter – Hector Velasquez, RHP 

2.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 13.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .350 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate and 26.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .297 average, .303 wOBA, 13.6 K rate, 20.2 fly ball rate and 30.7 had hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 39

Vs RHH – sinker 51

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Jake Bauers .434 xwOBA/.311 ISO, Ji-Man Choi .457 xwOBA/.267 ISO, Mallex Smith .201 ISO

It’s little unclear how long Velasquez will be able to pitch in this game as the four innings he went the last game was the longest outing since April. He’s not given up a homer to a righty while giving up a 1.88 HR/9 to lefties. Bauers has been much colder since he was on fire when he got called up but he’s under $3,000. I’d rather play him over Choi and even though Smith has a big number for ISO against the four seamer, he’s still really expensive. $3,500 is likely too much for the complete lack of home run upside on this big of a slate. You would need a couple stolen bases and a run to feel good about spending that price tag.

Rays Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – Mallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi

Rays Probable Starter – TBD 

It’s yet to be announced as of this writing but it certainly won’t be Tyler Glasnow and it won’t be Blake Snell so it would seem wise to assume it’s a bullpen game. Until we know exactly who’s pitching, we’re not going to be sure of exactly who to play. You can’t go to wrong with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez but it would be nice to know what you’re getting into before you spend the sky high prices.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – TBD

Home Run Pick – Mookie Betts

DFS MLB – White Sox at Tigers

White Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 

4.72 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 16.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .318 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 52.0 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .353 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 42.2 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – four seam 63

Vs RHH – four seam 58

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Niko Goodrum .422 xwOBA/.366, Nicholas Catellanos .401 xwOBA

Goodrum is very interesting here because even though Lopez has been reverse splits to an extent, the home runs given up are basically equal to each side of the plate. He also has the highest ISO among regular players at .230 against righty pitching and $3,000 isn’t a terrible price. Castellanos is a little too expensive for my liking tonight even with Lopez being a little worse on the road and giving up a 1.55 HR/9 to righty hitters. There’s really not much else here because of the struggles that Detroit has against righty pitching and through 88 at-bats, Lopez has yet to give up a home run to active Tigers hitters.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Nicholas Castellanos

Tigers Probable Starter – Michael Fulmer, RHP 

4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .241 average, .325 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .276 average, .324 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – four seam 32, sinker 30

Vs RHH – sinker 30, slider 33

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Daniel Palka .260 ISO, Yoan Moncada .253 ISO, Yolmer Sanchez .230 ISO

You’re not going to be able to take a flier on Fulmer tonight since he’s only going to throw about 70 pitches. That might get you to four innings, which he would have to strike out a lot of White Sox hitters to make it worth it. The lefties power for the Sox is interesting for GPP’s because Fulmer has given up 10 bombs to lefty hitters through the season. Palka and Moncada both strikeout over 32 percent of the time so that’s a hard sell for cash games. Sanchez only strikes out around 18 percent of the time which makes you feel better about that. Nicky Delmonico would be fine but I would rather save $200 and play Palka.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka, Yoan Moncada

Home Run Pick – Yolmer Sanchez

DFS MLB – Nationals at Mets

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

4.51 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .239 average, .287 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .273 average, .347 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Va LHH – four seam 41

Vs RHH – sinker 31

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Todd Frazier .440 xwOBA/.300 ISO

I’m not going to put a ton of stock into Frazier’s data versus the sinker in this spot because it’s a small sample size and I could be talked into using Gonzalez tonight. The Mets are that bad against lefties, especially at home. The rank at the bottom of the league in all of our normal major offensive categories and even through his bouts of inconsistency, Gonzalez has had some good games. The lack of strikeouts from him are the biggest concern but that’s somewhat negated by the Mets having the second highest strikeout rate in baseball against southpaws. At only $7,500 on FanDuel, he’s a tournament option that carries some risk.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco

Mets Probable Starter – Jason Vargas, LHP 

7.57 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .293 average, .379 wOBA, 14.9 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .325 average, .416 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – sinker 40

Vs RHH – sinker 33, change 33

I’m not really worried about who rates well against the pitch data in this side of the game because Vargas is one of the worst starters in baseball. The number one option here has to be Ryan Zimmerman. Not only does he lead the team in OPS, ISO and wOBA but he’s also the cheapest of the major players on FanDuel at just $3,600. All of Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon are in play but they’re all over $4,000. I’d likely prioritize Turner and Soto. Turner has massive stolen base upside against the Mets and Soto might come in under-owned to what he should be strictly because of the lefty/lefty matchup. The good news is with pitching not being that expensive, we can fit in the Nats if we want to tonight.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner, Juan Soto

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon(basically elite on their own)

Home Run Pick –  Ryan Zimmerman, Juan Soto and Trea Turner

DFS MLB – A’s at Twins

A’s Probable Starter – Sean Manaea, LHP 

3.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .275 wOBA, 16.8 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 23.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .291 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 42.2 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – Four seam 54 slider 38

Vs RHH – Four seam 56 change 37

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – None

This might not be the worst spot for Manaea. He’s only given up two home runs to lefty hitters so we need to chase righties. The issue is there’s not many on the Twins that look like they should be played. Miguel Sano has a massive 38 percent strikeout rate against lefty pitching so he’s the definition of a tournament play. Logan Forsythe has been hitting well since he got to Minnesota but has a .042 ISO. Even Jorge Polanco is down at a .225 wOBA this season. I don’t think I’ll have any Twins tonight.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.55 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .339 wOBA, 22.3 K rate, 48.6 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .328 wOBA, 25.1 K rate, 46.4 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – Four seam 40, splitter 22

Vs RHH – Four seam 39, slider 23

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Khris Davis .435 xwOBA/.410 ISO, Matt Chapman .396 xwOBA/.266 ISO, Matt Olson .278 ISO

Giving up a decent amount of hard contact and a ton of fly balls is not a good recipe when you’re facing the A’s offense. It’s even worse when Davis is white hot and rates well against the pitch data and has an ISO over .325 on the season. He’s the type of hitter that can stay hot for an extended period and he’s in the player pool for sure. Both of Olson and Chapman are solid options as well and Olson finally woke up a little bit last night with a couple doubles. If you go with a full stack, I wouldn’t leave out Jed Lowrie either. This is a very dangerous spot for Odorizzi tonight.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Options – Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie

Home Run Pick – Matt Chapman

DFS MLB – Pirates at Brewers

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

3.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .327 wOBA, 14.7 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .257 wOBA, 22.3 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – Four seam 33, changeup 21

Vs RHH – four seam 34, slider 29

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Christian Yelich .393 xwOBA/.200 ISO, Travis Shaw .409 xwOBA/.288 ISO, Eric Thames .250 ISO

It’s pretty hard to pay $4,400 for Christian Yelich but it’s undeniable how well he’s hitting right now. Thames has a nice ISO mark but he’s hit three home runs since July 10th. Now, there’s been the All-Star Break and he was on the disabled list for awhile but his $3,600 price is pretty unwarranted right now. Musgrove has only given up three bombs to lefties so Thames would be out for me. I’m even having a tough time paying up for Shaw for the same reasons. If you’re playing lefties tonight for the Brewers, you’re hoping Musgrove pitches out of character or the Brewers get multiple rallies going. It’s possible but it’s not the likeliest outcome.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

ELite Options – Three or four man lefty stack

Secondary Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames

Brewers Probable Starter – Wade Miley, LHP 

2.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 15.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .296 wOBA, 13.3 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 58.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .209 average, .268 wOBA, 16.2 K rate,  25.7 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – Four seam 30, cutter 22

Vs RHH – cutter 41, change 20

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Gregory Polanco .271 ISO, Francisco Cervelli .517 xwOBA/.429 ISO, Elias Diaz .409 xwOBA/.333 ISO

What’s interesting here is Miley is pitching to an xFIP and FIP over 4.20 in any split he’ll face tonight. Nobody is going to play Gregory Polanco but he carries some power upside as a tournament option. We always like the catching tandem of Cervelli and Diaz and the Pirates have been so cold lately, it’s got to start going the other way. The runs are coming for the offense and Miley has the Regression Monster bearing down on him as well. Jordy Mercer, Starling Marte and David Freese would all be options if you want to try to catch Miley at his worst. It’s just a matter of time.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz/Francisco Cervelli, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Options – Starling Marte, David Freese, Jordy Mercer

Home Run Pick – Jordy Mercer

DFS MLB – Indians at Royals

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP 

3.25 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .248 average, .325 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .277 wOBA, 28.4 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 56, change 23

Vs RHH – four seam 51, slider 37

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Ryan O’Hearn .484 xwOBA/.400 ISO, Lucas Duda .216 ISO

It’s going to be hard to be to happy about playing Royals hitters tonight given the size of the slate. I think the only value would come from the lefties that look good against the pitch mix and O’Hearn is very interesting as a low owned GPP option. He’s only received 36 at-bats versus righty pitching so far but his OPS is 1.159, a .419 ISO and a .478 wOBA. We know what Duda is capable of but $3,000 feels a little pricey for him. He has double digit points once in his last 13 games. I almost never wind up with Clevinger but he’s more of an option tonight given the slate construction.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lucas Duda, Ryan O’Hearn

Royals Probable Starter – Brad Keller, RHP 

3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .260 average, .320 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 22.0 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .281 wOBA, 15.7 K rate,  27.2 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 51, slider 21

Vs RHH – four seam 39, slider 29

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Jose Ramirez .457 xwOBA/.464 ISO, Yonder Alonso .422 xwOBA/.237 ISO, Michael Brantley .432 xwOBA/.260 ISO

Keller is probably not as good as the metrics suggest with his low strikeout rate but he has only given up five total home runs across 100.2 innings this season. He’s almost certainly not that good and the Cleveland offense is a dangerous one to face off against. You can’t go wrong playing Jose Ramirez ever and Brantley sure pops off the page for pitch data. Brantley is also second on the team behind Ramirez in wOBA and OPS. Everyone is expensive as they always are and I don’t think this is the spot you load up on them. There’s better spots for cash and the Indians aren’t my favorite.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion

Home Run Pick – Ryan O’Hearn

ST. LOUIS, MO – JULY 13: Yadier Molina #4 of the St. Louis Cardinals drives in a run with a single against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Busch Stadium on July 13, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Rockies

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.80 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .267 average, .301 wOBA, 15.9 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .187 average, .218 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 24.8 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Nothing over 31 percent

There’s nothing to really sink our teeth into from the pitch data because Mikolas doesn’t lean on one particular pitch. I do wonder if he might struggle in Coors Field since he’s reliant on movement more than velocity. I don’t think I would be too gung-ho about Rockies hitters in cash but they’re definitely a nice tournament play if Mikolas does blow up. I would start with Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez who both have ISO’s over .200 and a wOBA over .350. David Dahl would have to be an option as well since he’s the team leader in wOBA on the season. I almost never even look at righties against Mikolas but you can consider Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. The latter has really blossomed this season with a .357 wOBA and .235 ISO against righty pitching.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez in GPP

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Rockies Probable Starter – Antonio Senzatela, RHP 

4.47 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 16.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .298 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 30.8 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .313 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 67

Vs RHH – four seam 68

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Matt Carpenter .512 xwOBA/.387 ISO, Yadier Molina .417 xwOBA/.337 ISO, Jose Martinez .454 xwOBA

Senzatela is another one of the Rockies pitchers that seemingly has figured something out about pitching at home. Maybe it’s just me but it kind of feels like Coors Field has been a little bit of a letdown this season more often than not. Perhaps some of that reason is the Rockies pitchers have been a lot better than the perception is. Carpenter destroys fastballs and has been so ridiculously on fire for so long, he has to be in play tonight. Molina is only $3,500 which isn’t terrible for Coors and he and Martinez are solid options given the fastball data.  I might wind up looking silly but I think these teams disappoint relative to what everyone thinks they’ll do.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez, Tyler O’Neil

Home Run Pick – Yadier Molina

DFS MLB – Mariners at Diamondbacks

Mariners Probable Starter – Erasmo Ramirez, RHP 

5.49 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 14.1 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .333 average, .475 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 44.7 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .182 average, .291 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – change 30

Vs RHH – sinker 44

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Daniel Desclaso .265 ISO

This would appear to be a smash spot for the Arizona lefties with Ramirez having a 5.63 HR/9 to lefties on the road. That’s a very small sample size but that’s also a massive number that we probably shouldn’t ignore. Descalso leads the team against the changeup as far as lefty hitters go but you have to ask yourself if you want to pay the sky high price for David Peralta and his .989 OPS, .275 ISO and .414 wOBA. I would normally lean “no” at that price but it’s such a sweetheart matchup it’s hard to ignore. Ketel Marte does have an ISO of .214 against the changeup and is a fine pivot from Descalso if you need the money. I might leave the righties alone in this one because I don’t need to shoe horn anything on this slate.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Daniel Descalso, Ketel Marte, David Peralta

Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Eduardo Escobar

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.44 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .332 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 22.8 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .307 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – sinker 32, curve 33

Vs RHH – cutter 37, curve 33

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Nelson Cruz .250 ISO, Kyle Seager .226 ISO

Godley has been far to inconsistent to truly consider at over $9,000 on FanDuel. The Mariners barely strikeout 20 percent of the time so it doesn’t look like you could get a ceiling game from Godley tonight. He’s been solid at home so I don’t think I would have too many Mariners tonight either. Seager might be the best option out of this side because he’s cheap and he hits the curve for so much power. The biggest issue for any hitter is that Godley has kept the ball in the yard quite often. I don’t think there’s much here and I think it’s Cruz or Seager, who does have a .193 on the season.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Home Run Pick – Daniel Descalso

DFS MLB – Astros at Angels

Astros Probable Starter – Dallas Keuchel, LHP 

3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 17.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .296 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 13.5 fly ball rate and 26.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .299 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 25.3 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – sinker 54, slider 32

Vs RHH – 41 sinker

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Albert Pujols .519 xwOBA/.333 ISO

It might seem crazy on the face of things, but Pujols actually might be a solid play tonight. Is he a good hitter at this stage of his career? Not really and his seasonal numbers against lefty pitching include a .686 OPS and a .292 wOBA. What attracts us to him is his price, the pitch data and he does have three home runs off of Keuchel in 38 at-bats. That’s not a great ratio overall but for Pujols that’s pretty solid. I don’t think I’d do much else against this current version of the Angels lineup, which is missing Justin Upton and Mike Trout. Keuchel might actually have a little bit of upside.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Albert Pujols

Secondary Options – David Fletcher, Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Andrew Heaney, LHP 

4.11 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .232 average, .239 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 16.5 fly ball rate and 28.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .318 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – sinker 55, curve 41

Vs RHH – sinker 55, curve 21

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – George Springer .410 xwOBA, Evan Gattis .410 xwOBA/.370 ISO

This spot for the Astros offense is just OK but might not be as good as I thought it would be. The pitch data certainly doesn’t look like anything special but the seasonal data does look a little better fro Alex Bregman, with a .255 ISO and a .402 wOBA. I’d be willing to take a shot at Tyler White to keep his magic going and I still think a Houston stack could do well tonight. I will say that you’re not going to get Jose Altuve much cheaper than $3,700 on FanDuel so he’s kind of playable almost by default. He also stole a base which is a great sign his leg is 100 percent and he’s ready to go.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

Secondary Options – Evan Gattis, Tyler  White

Home Run Pick –  Jose Altuve

DFS MLB – Padres at Dodgers

Padres Probable Starter – Clayton Richard, LHP 

5.11 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 15.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .298 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 9.2 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .257 average, .333 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 24.8 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – sinker 53, slider 34

Vs RHH – sinker 55, slider 26

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Yasmani Grandal .420 xwOBA/.250 ISO, Kike Hernandez, .238 ISO

I haven’t got the Dodgers right too often lately. Brian almost always does a better job with this team but I’m not sure this is the night to stack them. Sure Richard is really a poor pitcher but the Dodgers really don’t rate all that well and we try and stay within our lane, which is let the stats dictate the which directions we can go. The only hitters that I would really give a long look is Grandal, Justin Turner and Matt Kemp. The latter two are the only ones who carry an ISO over 200 from that side of the plate.  I’m usually all-in on Max Muncy  but I’m not going to force the issue. Richard gives up so few fly balls to lefties, it just wouldn’t make any sense. No player on the Dodgers has a wOBA over .314 other than who we talked about. It’s likely not fair to include Brian Dozier and Manny Macahdo in that due to small sample size.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Options – Matt Kemp, Justin Turner, Brian Dozier, Manny Machado

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

3.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .292 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 43.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 had hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .324 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 48.6 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 53, curve 44

Vs RHH – four seam 57, curve 40

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Wil Myers .438 xwOBA/.571 ISO, Franmil Reyes .353 ISO,

This side of the game is a total gamble on either end. Hill has been just average his last three starts and the Padres have plenty of righty power that can knock him around if he’s not missing their bats. The issue is Myers and  Reyes both strikeout at least 29 percent of the time. That’s a pretty large number to go along with their ISO’s over .250 so I think you have to decide how much Padres exposure you want here. It could truly go either way and if you stack the Padres, don’t forget Hunter Renfroe who has a .227 ISO and a .334 wOBA. Any outcome for Hill is on the table tonight from close to single digits to near 50 points.

Padres Hitters to target 

Elite Options -Three man stack

Secondary Options -One offs with the power righties

Home Run Pick – Wil Myers

DFS MLB – Rangers at Giants

Rangers Probable Starter – Drew Hutchison, RHP 

5.71 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .309 average, .378 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 27.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .379 wOBA, 16.5 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 58

Vs RHH – four seam 49, slider 43

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Alen Hanson .345 ISO

I really wish this game was in Texas and not San Francisco. I’d have a much easier time trying to target offensive players, especially with a pitcher like Hutchison on the mound. As things stand, it’s a pretty narrow pool for me. Hanson is cheap enough and the ISO is high enough that I don’t have any type of issue with him. Brandon Belt leads the Giants in OPS, ISO and wOBA but he’s also $800 more expensive and it’s hard to see him have a ton of upside here tonight. Brandon Crawford only has a .133 ISO versus righties so far and while he’s a fine cash option as last man in, there wouldn’t appear to be much upside. The combo of a bad offense and a pitchers park might give Hutchison a decent night at the park.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Alen Hanson, Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP 

2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .285 wOBA, 16.8 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 46.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .250 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 39, change 25

Vs RHH – nothing over 30

Notable Hitter Data vs Pitches – Shin-soo Choo .473 xwOBA/.326 ISO, Joey Gallo .297 ISO

We’re going to get an idea of just how good a pitcher Rodriguez truly is. He’s been pitching over his head and now we just need to find out how much. He hasn’t missed too much time so he shouldn’t be too limited but I can’t use him against the Rangers, even in a pitcher’s haven. Both Choo and Gallo are over $3,500, as is Rougned Odor. Those three do have ISO’s over .220 and wOBA’s over .335 but they just seem so expensive. I wouldn’t bat an eye if this was in Texas to pay that price but they’re not so it’s harder to play anyone. Jurickson Profar and Robinson Chirinos have a higher ISO as well because that’s kind of the motto for the Rangers – hit it a long way or don’t hit it at all.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo

Secondary Options – Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara

Home Run Pick – Joey Gallo

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Mike Foltynewicz

C/1B – Ryan Zimmerman

2B – Niko Goodrum 

3B – Maikel Franco

SS – Trea Turner 

OF – Hunter Renfroe, Alen Hanson, Daniel Palka 

Utility – Jake Bauers 

If I’m being completely honest, I’m not the biggest fan of this sample. Maybe it isn’t as easy to pitch Foltynewicz and build an offense as I thought. We’ll see how the day unfolds. At least this lineup does have some Nationals and it definitely has some home run upside.

The Core – Ryan Zimmerman, leaning towards Mike Foltynewicz

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Mike Foltynewicz, Mike Clevinger, Dallas Keuchel

Mid-Range – Sean Manaea, Rich Hill

Punt – Ryan Borucki

Stacks to Consider – Washington Nationals, Oakland A’s, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros,

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.