DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, August 25

Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We’re in the single digits for games today so let’s dig into some fantasy goodness!

Well, the Nationals stink and I don’t care for them much today. How they let Jason Vargas(Jason. VARGAS) shut them down is utterly beyond me, but I suppose there’s a reason why that franchise is set to disappoint yet again in 2018. They certainly let me down and wasted a solid lineup with Ryan Borucki almost hitting 40 points and Jose Altuve making his return felt. Let’s hope for some better offense tonight!

DFS MLB – Yankees at Orioles

Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP 

5.34 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .329 wOBA, 20.5 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .284 average, .358 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – Nothing over 31 percent

Vs RHH – sinker 39

Notable Hitter Data – Chris Davis .507 xwOBA/.750 ISO

I really wish some hitters profiled just a little bit better from a pitch data point of view for the Orioles offense. We all know Sonny Gray hasn’t pitched well at all this season and he’s someone we want to target. The problem is a lot of the righties in their lineup are very mediocre against the sinker. Gray has shown drastic splits this season and the Orioles do strikeout a ton so I suppose you can make a case for him as a GPP play. I’d hope to find out how far he can go in this game before it starts since he’s been in the bullpen for a bit. The last time he hit the five inning mark was around a month ago. I want a piece of this offense but I might take a swipe at the lefties. Davis has a massive number versus the sinker so it’s a dart style play. Cedric Mullins hasn’t been up long enough too develop a profile against pitch types but he’s been red-hot as an Oriole. Jonathan Villar also has thrived in a Baltimore uniform and hit a home run last night.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Chris Davis, Cedric Mullins, Jonathan Villar

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP 

4.84 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 15.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .360 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 37.3 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .342 wOBA, 12.9 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – four seam 36, sinker 29

Vs RHH – four seam 32, sinker 35

Notable Hitter Data – Gleyber Torres .405 xwOBA/.319 ISO, Giancarlo Stanton .389 xwOBA/.280 ISO, Miguel Andujar .425 xwOBA/ .239 ISO, Neil Walker .448 xwOBA

Through 84 at-bats against this Yankee lineup, Cashner has only given up one home run and that was to Greg Bird. I wouldn’t put a lot of weight into that but it is a little weird. Cashner is relatively even to each side of the plate with the exception of home runs. He’s surrendered 13 to lefties and just six to righties. Even with that knowledge, it’s hard to not like Torres since he absolutely demolishes righty sinkers. Walker would be interesting agin should he draw the start with a bomb last night. Greg Bird is a fair price with his .193 ISO versus righty pitching but he’s never my favorite player to send out there. You can also chase the home run from Aaron Hicks on the left side of the plate but he’s so expensive.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gleyber Torres, Neil Walker

Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird

Home Run Pick – Jonathan Villar

DFS MLB – Braves at Marlins

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

3.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .201 average, .274 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 29.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .296 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 41.9 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Nothing over 30 percent to either side of the plate

Just as a quick note, I generally want a pitch to be about 35 percent before I trust it as a sample size. There are exceptions like when a pitcher throws a sinker/four seam mix to make up around 60 percent but just as a general rule. So when you see “nothing over 30 percent” and no hitter data, that’s why.

It’s hard to find a way to pick on Sanchez tonight but the one hitter I would consider is J.T. Realmuto and his .211 ISO against righty pitching. He’s pretty far and away the best hitter left for the Marlins and he does hit righties well and he does own a home run off of Sanchez in a minuscule sample of five at-bats. Sanchez himself is approaching $9,000 on FanDuel and I think that’s a little too rich for my blood.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yin Chen, LHP 

5.20 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .211 average, .252 wOBA, 28.3 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 7.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .352 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 45.0 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 51

Vs RHH – four seam 55

Notable Hitter Data – Tyler Flowers .593 xwOBA/.450 ISO, Kurt Suzuki .477 xwOBA/.556 ISO, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Johan Camargo and Charlie Culberson all over .276 ISO versus the pitch

You’re going to have to take a stand with this spot and decide what matters more to you – pitch data that says the Braves should crush the lefty fastball or the incredible home/road splits for Chen that have seen him pitch to an ERA seven runs better at home. Camargo is actually $100 more expensive than Ozzie Albies and that might be the first time all season as far as I can remember. I think the lefties for the Braves are out of commission because Chen has been so tough to that side of the plate. The FIP and xFIP for Chen supports what he’s done to most extent and I think I might be a little careful with this matchup. It has Nationals potential to break your back.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ronald Acuna

Secondary Options – Johan Camargo, Ozzie Albies, Charlie Culberson,  Adam Duvall

Home Run Pick – Adam Duvall

ARLINGTON, TX – JULY 24: Mark Canha #20 of the Oakland Athletics rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Texas Rangers in the top of the third inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on July 24, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – A’s at Twins

A’s Probable Starter – Mike Fiers, RHP 

3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .244 average, .321 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 40.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .299 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 43.2 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

VS RHH – four seam 34

Notable Hitter Data – Miguel Sano .400 xwOBA/.245 ISO

I’m really not too excited about the pitch data to righties and I’m not going to play hitters against Fiers. He’s really digging Oakland and has pitched 18.1 innings there so far and given up just three runs while striking out 21 hitters. He does have a 1.71 HR/9 to lefties which is enough to scare me off of using him unless it’s a tournament but even then, the only hitters with an ISO over .200 form the left side are Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler. I don’t know how high the odds are for them getting a hold of one the way Fiers is pitching right now.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler

Twins Probable Starter – Stephen Gonsalves, LHP

The first start for Gonsalves did not go very well as he got waxed for four earned runs in 1.1 innings and the A’s aren’t a team you want to see when you’ve gotten smacked in your first major league action. I’m not too concerned with splits or pitch data and I think you just want the best hitters versus lefty pitching. That means a heavy dose of Mark Canha, Chad Pinder and Marcus Semien as cheaper options while Khris Davis and Matt Chapman are all way up there in price tonight. Canha versus Pinder is no contest for me. Canha’s OPS is .162 points higher, his ISO is .149 points higher and the wOBA is .050 points higher. I’ll gladly pay the extra $100 for those numbers. This is a full on stack spot for the A’s as Gonsalves hasn’t proven to be effective yet in the majors.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Canha, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien

Secondary Options – Chad Piner, Stephen Piscotty, Jed Lowrie

Home Run Pick – Mark Canha

DFS MLB – Pirates at Brewers

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP 

3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .330 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .263 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 38, sinker 21

Vs RHH – four seam 32, sinker 26

Notable Hitter Data – Christian Yelich .440 xwOBA, Travis Shaw .435 xwOBA/.341 ISO, Mike Moustakas .429 xwOBA, Eric Thames .404 xwOBA/.356 ISO

This is kind of the same exact spot for the Brewers that we had yesterday. It looked like I made a massive mistake yesterday after the Brewers got four runs in the first inning, led by a Yelich home run.  However, Milwaukee didn’t score after that and Musgrove settled down a bit. The slider for Taillon has mad a big difference in his season but he’s not throwing it enough to target it. He’s also identical in HR/9 to each side of the plate at 0.89 and it’s interesting that he’s given up six home runs to the Brewers through 100 at-bats and all six have come from righties Hernan Perez(3), Jesus Aguilar(2) and Ryan Braun(1). The Brew Crew does strikeout 25 percent of the time versus righties, good for a top five rate in baseball. That’s good enough to try Taillon in a tournament.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw

Secondary Options – Eric Thames, Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .334 wOBA, 15.1 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .243 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – sinker 35, slider 33

Vs RHH – sinker 36, slider 51

Notable Hitter Data – Gregory Polanco .372 xwOBA/.248 ISO, Adam Frazier .261 ISO, David Freese  .429 xwOBA/.274 ISO

Cahcin is a very similar pitcher to Taillon from a lot of perspectives and I don’t mind taking shots at lefties agains him. That ISO number for Frazier is pretty large for someone that hits for about zero power and he’s cheap enough to fit in just about any lineup. Polanco is a little more expensive than I would like but might try to have him in a spot or two. I don’t think we should go too crazy with hitters from this game. The pitchers are both pretty quality and I’d rather find a nether spot to attack.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Adam Frazier

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson

Home Run Pick – Adam Frazier

DFS MLB – Indians at Royals

Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP 

2.74 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 24.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .267 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .223 average, .258 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – cutter 33, sinker 28

Vs RHH – sinker 38, cutter 25

Notable Hitter Data – Lucas Duda .524 xwOBA/.263 ISO, Whit Merrifield .520 xwOBA/.262 ISO,

I have rarely used Kluber this year but I might be willing to make an exception given the slate and what he’s still bringing to the table. His strikeout rate has basically bottomed out compared to last year but he’s hard not to like to go deep into the game here. There’s just not a lot on this Royals offense that really scares you. If you wanted to take a shot at Duda or Merrifield as a super low owned play, it makes little bit of sense because they won’t have a lot of ownership. I still think it’s Kluber or bust on this side of the game.

Royals Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifeld

Royals Probable Starter – Heath Fillmyer, RHP 

4.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 13.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .298 wOBA, 13.2 K rate, 27.0 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .281 average, .368 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 50.7 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 49

Vs RHH – four seam 55, slider 35

Notable Hitter Data – Jose Ramirez .503 xwOBA/.559 ISO, Edwin Encarnacion .435 xwOBA/.281 ISO, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley and Francisco Lindor over .400 xwOBA

Fillmyer has been starkly reverse splits this year and that puts Edwin Encarnacion directly on my radar. he looks really solid against the pitch mix and has the highest ISO on the season of any Cleveland hitter not named Jose Ramirez. Those two would definitely be my top two plays from the Cleveland offense and Yonder Alonso might be less attractive since he hit two home runs yesterday. It’s just not statistically probable he does it again tonight. Fillmyer has been good against lefties but this is going to be a major test for him.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elie Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Options – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Home Run Pick – Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Mariners at Diamondbacks

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

4.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .337 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .298 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – Nothing over 29 percent

Vs RHH – Changeup 37

Notable Hitter Data – Nick Ahmed .368 ISO, Ketel Marte .310 ISO, Paul Goldschmidt .095 ISO

LeBlanc has really been scatter shot lately and a big storyline for this side of the game is if Goldy will be in the lineup or not. He was forced out of Friday’s game so we’ll have to keep an eye out through the day today. He also stinks against the lefty changeup so that’s something to note. I kind of want a lefty or two in the lineup but I don’t know just how much they would help. Jon Jay has a .031 ISO and .277 wOBA against lefties which is putrid. David Peralta is a little more respectable at .168 for ISO and a .323 wOBA but he’s awfully expensive to take the risk on. If you play Arizona, you just stick with the righties and hope LeBanc is coming back to his career normals.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Robbie Ray, LHP 

4.91 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 29.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .153 average, .253 wOBA, 32.5 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

vs RHH – .265 average, .359 wOBA, 28.9 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 44.1 hard hit rate

Notable Pitcher Data

Vs LHH – four seam 47, slider 46

Vs RHH – four seam 55, slider 21

Notable Hitter Data – Robinson Cano .378 xwOBA/.219 ISO, Nelson Cruz .240 ISO

Cano does have fantastic numbers but it’s hard to get on board with a lefty in this matchup. For all his faults and maddening starts, Ray does handle lefty hitters pretty well. I’m just going to go with Nelson Cruz in this spot. Mitch Haniger wouldn’t be the worst option either but you likely need to stack if you’re talking about the Mariners. It’s going to be hard to beg the guy who’s really and sharply inconsistent.

Mariners Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – Nick Ahmed

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Rockies

Cardinals Probable Starter – John Gant, RHP 

3.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .312 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 40.3 fly ball rate and 58.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .194 average, .238 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 28.7 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 56

Vs RHH – four seam 59

Notable Hitter Data – David Dahl .467 xwOBA/.323 ISO, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado all over .225 ISO

There’s plenty of power to be had through the Rockies lineup and I’m going to the lefties first because Gant still has yet to allow a homer to righties. That fits nicely with David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez if you want to go that route. I think the righties are GPP only while the top of the lefties in the lineup are all fine options. It doesn’t take much imagination to see a scenario where Gant gets smacked around here.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Any Colorado Lefty

Secondary options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 24.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .297 average, .355 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .197 average, .278 wOBA, 31.8 K rate, 27.6 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 52, curve 21

Vs RHH – four seam 45, curve 21

Notable Hitter Data – Matt Carpenter .491 xwOBA/.427 ISO, Yadier Molina .406 xwOBA/.293 ISO, Paul DeJong .250 ISO

Marquez is potentially my favorite tournament pitcher on the board tonight. He’s been worse at home but that’s been in large part due to lefty hitters. The Cardinals only have one lefty that you have to worry about and that’s Matt Carpenter. Most nights, the only other lefty is Kolten Wong which doesn’t bother you. His strikeout rate to righties at home is right in line with his seasonal mark so the upside is massive for him against a super righty heavy lineup. Carpenter is likely the only Cardinal I would play.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Charlie Blackmon

DFS MLB – Astros at Angels

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.65 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 33.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .187 average, .267 wOBA, 38.1 K rate, 54.1 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .274 wOBA, 29.7 K rate, 51.4 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 65

Vs RHH – four seam 60

Notable Hitter Data – Shohei Ohtani .470 xwOBA/.475 ISO, Mike Torut .457 xwOBA/.340 ISO

If you want to take a chance with Ohtani or Trout fresh off the DL, I’m not going to say you’re crazy but it’s not something that is likely to be successful. He has been giving up enough home runs in his past few starts that I don’t feel safe paying up for him but I don’t think he’s going to get torched tonight. I can’t see any reason to play anyone else outside of a crazy Angels stack in case he’s giving away home runs after his run in with some very expensive pancakes.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

Angels Probable Starter – Jaime Barria, RHP 

3.41 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .218 average, .258 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .291 average, .387 wOBA., 16.8 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data

Vs LHH – four seam 36, slider 25

Vs RHH – four seam 41, slider 49

Notable Hitter Data – Tyler White .313 ISO, Alex Bregman .251 ISO, Carlos Correa .244 ISO, Jose Altuve .421 xwOBA/.182 ISO

You know who’s just about all the way healthy and is starting to hit again? The Astros. Barria has a sky high 2.22 HR/9 against righty hitters and there’s a very attractive stacking option with Altuve, Correa, Bregman and White. They might actually go little under owned once you see what kind of spot the Dodgers are in here in a minute but Houston is pretty similar. The top of their lineup should be able to do work tonight and even if it’s not a team you want to stack, Correa and White are pretty cheap compared to what they should be.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Three to four man stack

Secondary Options – Any of those four righties as a one-off

Home Run Pick – Tyler White and Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Padres at Dodgers

Padres Probable Starter – Brett Kennedy, RHP 

8.36 ERA, 2.14 WHIP and 12.9 strikeout rate(14.0 IP)

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – fou seam 62

Vs RHH – four seam 62, slider 37

Notable Hitter Data – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner are all over .210 in ISO

I couldn’t resist taking a playful swipe at the love Brian has for the Dodgers, but how can you not love them tonight? They smash fastballs from each side of the plate and should be able to handle Kennedy without any issues at all. Pederson might be one of the better plays since he’ll lead off in all likelihood and he’s the cheapest at $3,100. Muncy is the only everyday hitter that has a higher OPS, ISO and wOBA than Pederson on the team and he’s $1,000 more expensive. We’ll see how the rest of the lineup shakes out but this could be a double digit runs spot.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joc Pederson, lineup dependent

Secondary Options – Lineup Dependent

Dodgers Probable Starter – Clayton Kershaw, LHP 

2.40 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .324 wOBA, 25.2 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .244 wOBA, 24.8 K rate, 25.4 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Notable Pitch Data 

Vs LHH – four seam 49, slider 35

Vs RHH – four seam 39, slider 42

Kershaw appears to be all the way back as he has been pretty dominant these past few starts. With the exception of a start at Oakland, he’s gone at least six innings with at least seven strikeouts in four of five. That’s great and all but I don’t want to pay for him on this slate I don’t think. That could change during the day but I want no part of the Padres here.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Joc Pederson

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P- German Marquez

C/1B – Edwin Encarnacion

2B – Jose Altuve

3B – Alex Bregman

SS – Carlos Correa

OF – Joc Pederson, Mark Canha, Adam Duvall 

Utility – Tyler White 

This is a little different than I normally give but I wanted to see how feasible it would be to make an Astro stack. It turns out, it can be done without much of an issue. Marquez is in a fantastic spot, even in Coors Field. Pederson, Canha and E5 all have serious home run upside given their matchups and Duvall isn’t the worst punt in the world at $2,100. It would be even better if he drew a nice spot in the lineup.

The Core – Mark Canha, E5, Joc Pederson

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Verlander, Kershaw, Kluber

Mid-range – German Marquez, Robbie Ray

Punt – Sonny Gray(GPP only)

Stacks To Consider – Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland A’s, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Indians

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.