WNBA DFS Lineup Advice – 8/28/2018 (Fanduel and DraftKings)
By EJ Whelan
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of WNBA DFS Lineup Advice, a fantasy basketball column dedicated to finding you the best key players and value picks on today’s slate to build your lineups around.
Its’ Tuesday and we have two WNBA DFS games on the slate tonight starting at 8 pm ET. The Semi-Final Round of the playoffs started off with a BANG on Sunday and I can’t wait for the action to start again tonight! So let’s jump into the slate, find some key players and value picks to build our lineups around, and go win some money!!!
For those of you stopping by for the first time, I would like to thank you for checking out WNBA DFS Lineup Advice here at FantasyCPR.com Here is a brief summary of what I cover in each article:
- Where to Play (Websites, contest rules, and prizes)
- Game Times, O/U, Spreads from Oddshark.com
- Key players from each game (Over 6K on Fanduel,10K on DraftKings)
- Value picks from each game (Under 4.5-K on Fanduel, 6k on DraftKings)
- Team stats from WNBA.com
- Player projections from LineStarApp.com
- Final Thoughts on the slate. (Stacks, fades, injuries, etc.)
It’s important to remember these articles are just a first look at the slate. For injury updates, starting lineups, pictures of my dog, and any other WNBA DFS news throughout the day – follow me on Twitter @whelan_ej
WNBA DFS – WHERE TO PLAY
Fanduel – $6 entry fee (150 max) 6,862 total entries 1st place prize – $5,000
DraftKings – $10 entry fee (141 max) 4,705 total entries 1st place prize – $10,000
Natasha Cloud and Tianna Hawkins had a big hand in helping the Mystics start the series with a win, defeating the Dream 87-84 on Sunday. Atlanta and Seattle had the best home records this WNBA season at 13-4. The Dream need to win tonight before heading to DC for Game 3 on Friday. EDD and Toliver and Cloud have all played big minutes in the last two games and I expect Washinton to lean on them heavily again tonight.
8 pm ET Washington Mystics #3 vs. Atlanta Dream #2 164 O/U ATL +1.5
Key Players:
Elena Delle Donne – EDD was good for over 50 fantasy points on Sunday if you had her in your lineups. Her price is up $700 on DK but stayed the same on FD, along with the rest of the players on the slate. LineStar has her projected to score 40.87 points on Fanduel. After Sunday’s performance it’s hard to not find some room, at least in a few lineups, to squeeze EDD in. At 1.39 she had the highest fantasy points per minute out of every player on Fanduel in Game 1 of both series.
Kristi Toliver – Toliver’s price is still way too high on FD for me to play her in my lineups today. Her average fantasy points per game are nearly half of what she would need to return value in a GPP. She got a little cheaper on DK but I still don’t want any exposure to her there either. I would much rather play a guard from Seattle or pivot down to Cloud or Montgomery in this game.
Latoya Sanders – Sanders didn’t exactly sink anybody’s lineup on Sunday but she didn’t do it much good for it either. She’s had 6 blocks in her last two games but is going to need to shoot the ball more efficiently and more often if she’s going to have an impact on the slate tonight. LineStar has her projected to score 31.45 points on Fanduel. I expect her ownership to be pretty low tonight, especially for cash. She’s risky, pricey, doesn’t always play a ton of minutes. Take a chance on her if you want, but I would rather spend that kind of money at the guard position today.
Jessica Breland – Breland managed to get 1.14 fantasy points per minute on Fanduel Sunday, but she only played 27 minutes of the game. She had 4 blocks against the Mystics but, like Sanders, needs to do more on the other side of the court to return value. Billings got 18 minutes off the bench last game and Willams played 34. I expect Breland to shoulder a heavier load tonight in a must-win game for Atlanta before hitting the road for Game 3. She’s only $8600 on DK, if you are playing on both sites today I would limit my exposure to her on Fanduel.
Elizabeth Williams – She had a great game against Washington on Sunday putting up 15 points, 14 rebounds, and a pair of blocks and assists. LineStar has her projected to score 28.91 points on DraftKings. She’s almost half the price of some of the other studs on the slate there and has just as much upside. I will have a decent amount of exposure to her on DK and FD, but I’m tempering my expectations.
Tiffany Hayes – Hayes was a bit of a dud on Sunday and I still think her price is too high to return value, especially on Fandeul. LineStar has her projected to score 26.23 points on DraftKings. She’s 8K there but I would rather spend an extra hundred buck and get Bird or pivot down to some of the cheaper guards on the slate.
Value Picks: Tianna Hawkins (FD & DK) Monique Billings (FD & DK), Leilani Mitchell (FD & DK)
Aerial Powers (FD & DK)
DeWanna Bonner had another 50+ point fantasy game on Sunday, scoring 27 points and grabbing 13 rebounds against the Storm. Seattle still came away with the win though despite her performance. The last thing the Mercury want to do is fall two games behind in a best of 3 series so I expect Bonner to stay on the court as much as possible tonight. She has played 114 minutes across three games in the postseason so far but is showing no signs of fatigue yet.
10 pm ET Phoenix Mercury #5 vs. Seattle Storm #1 174 O/U SEA -5
Key Players:
Diana Taurasi – The vet played pretty much as expected on Sunday, scoring 43 fantasy points on DraftKings but only 37.6 on Fanduel. You can’t really go wrong with Taurasi or Bonner today, and I will be mixing up my exposure to them on both sites. LineStar has her projected to score 36.40 points on Fanduel.
DeWanna Bonner – You’re paying over 12k on DK for most of the studs on the slate, and Bonner is the priciest of the bunch. But she has shown why she’s so expensive by putting up big numbers down the stretch in the regular season and now into the playoffs. LineStar has her projected to score 49.17 points on DraftKings. Once again her ownership should be high and could give you a nice edge on the crowd if you fade her and she has a bad game. Still, it’s a very risky fade given the way she has been playing recently.
Brittney Griner –Griner has only had 14 rebounds across three playoff games so far this postseason. She’s averaging 3 blocks a game in those contests but isn’t dominating the paint like the Mercury need her to do. LineStar has her projected to score 38.08 points on Fanduel. She’s the most expensive player on Fanduel today, without must justification for the high price tag. She does have upside, but if I want shares of her I will get them on DK where she is one of the only studs on the slate under 12k.
.Sue Bird – Bird had 10 points, 10 assists, and 3 steals against Phoenix in game one. I expect Another well-rounded performance tonight, and we might even get a few more baskets from her. She tied with Taurasi on Fanduel for fantasy points per minute at 1.18 but had a higher fantasy points per dollar ratio. I will be going right back to her tonight for my lineups. Her ceiling might not be as high as a player like Williams or Loyd but she’s still a decent option for GPPs tonight and a solid choice for your cash lineups.
Jewell Loyd – Her price jumped up a little bit on DK after putting up 38.3 fantasy points on Sunday. LineStar has her projected to score 31.24 points on DraftKings. She can still hit value today on both sites and I will plenty of exposure to her in my lineups. We have seen Loyd put up 50+ fantasy point games this season, you will be hard pressed to find players with that kind of upside in her price range on this slate.
Breanna Stewart – Stewie was officially named the MVP of the WNBA season on Monday. Once again she helped carry her team to victory, but this time it was in the playoffs. She played 36 minutes, scored 28 points, and did her thing on both sides of the court. LineStar has her projected to score 43.12 points on DraftKings. Her price only went up $100 bucks on DK and stayed at $8100 on FD. I will have plenty of exposure to her in my lineups today.
Natasha Howard – I wasn’t too big on Howard in Game 1 and I didn’t really see anything to make me change my mind moving forward. She did score 20 points, but like I predicted didn’t have as much of an impact on the defensive side of the ball as she usually does. Her price actually went up a few hundred bucks on DK despite the lackluster performance. Once again I won’t have much exposure to Howard tonight.
Value Picks: Yvonne Turner (FD & DK ) Crystal Langhorne (FD & DK ) Angel Robinson (FD & DK)
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Final Thoughts
- Taking the over on the PHO/SEA game Sunday was easy money as expected. It’s a few points higher tonight but both of these teams have enough offensive power to make me feel comfortable letting it ride.
- Having a few extra hours tonight to prep will be clutch. Thursday was full of issues, followed by a busy weekend with relatively early games on Sunday. Keep an eye out on Twitter for my player pool, any game notes I can find, and a spreadsheet with tons of info from Game 1 as well as projections for tonight.
- The rotations for Game 1 of the series were very tight with a total of 14 players being DNP’d by the coaches. If that continues tonight the punts in play should do well again and can serve as a core to build your lineups around.
- Don’t expect a repeat of Sunday, but use it as a blueprint to build your lineups around today. I expect the most volatility in scoring to occur with the mid-tier priced players. Montgomery, Atkins, and January all have a good chance at bouncing back today.
- The winning lineup on Fanduel had a player that only scored 2.4 points. On a short slate like this with tight rotations, you have to get creative fit the right studs in. That said I expect the mid-tier players to chip in more today, and more balanced lineups to rise to the top.
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