5 bold La Liga predictions: Atletico Madrid shock city rivals
La Liga matchday 7 has a number of exciting fixtures, with the Madrid derby the standout. Here are five bold predictions.
La Liga had its first double matchweek over the past seven days. Barcelona drew with Girona and lost to Leganes to put an end to their perfect start to the season, although they are still top on goal difference after Sevilla beat Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid have won twice in a row against Getafe and Huesca to generate some momentum ahead of the Madrid derby, while Sevilla seem to have found their form.
Barcelona host Athletic Bilbao, Real play Atleti, Sevilla travel to Eibar and Real Sociedad face off against Sevillia in the standout fixtures this weekend. Rayo Vallecano start the weekend of matches against Espanyol on Friday, with Celta Vigo versus Getafe the final fixture of the matchday on Monday. Here are five bold predictions for what’s to come.
1. Atletico win Madrid derby
Real Madrid host Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid in the first major clash of the season. There were worries about Julen Lopetegui after his side were dismantled in a 4-2 victory by their city rivals in the Super Cup, his first competitive match as Los Blancos manager, but they won five of the next seven games. The issues did resurface in the recent midweek 3-0 loss to Sevilla, though.
In contrast, Atletico started the season slowly with five points in the opening four games. However, they’ve started to recover since then with three consecutive wins, including the victory over Monaco in the Champions League.
Lopetegui’s system has been impressive in building a creative attacking unit while also limiting the opposition. Altogether, they’ve conceded a total of 5.86 xG in their six league matches, with 2.29 of that coming in the poor performance against Sevilla, per Understat. This is impressive for such an expansive system which commits so many players forward.
Atletico are a different challenge entirely. They’re experts at keeping clean sheets thanks to the experience, leadership and defensive nous they have across the team. Every player works hard in the defensive shape, which makes them tough to break down and they finally appear to have solved the defensive issues that were plaguing them at the start of the season; Diego Godin’s poor form certainly contributed to this.
Los Blancos will be without Isco due to injury, so they’ve lost one of their best players at cracking open stubborn low block shapes. He’s averaged 2.7 dribbles and 1.7 key passes per 90 minutes as well as 90.2 percent pass accuracy, even though he plays in advanced areas, per WhoScored. They’re also without Cristiano Ronaldo, who had an excellent record against Los Colchoneros.
Simeone can take advantage of his side’s vast understanding of his methods in contrast to the opposition to come away from the Bernabeu with a win. The Sevilla result will only add to Atletico’s confidence because it exposed defensive deficiencies which can be exploited.